Daily Market Update – November 20,  2015  (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:   MS

Rollovers:   CY, STX (puts)

Expirations:  CSCO, F

The following were ex-dividend this week:

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  MAT (11/23 $0.38), KO (11/27 $0.33)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT.

Daily Market Update – November 19,  2015  (Close)

Yesterday was a big surprise.

There were 2 things that happened that made it an impressive day.

The first was the manner in which the market reacted to the release of last month’s FOMC minutes, which indicated a much more hawkish tone and one that made it pretty clear that the intent was to raise interest rates soon.

That the market didn’t run away in terror was a good sign.

There was already some word that would be the news in the minutes and that may have been the reason that the market had opened with some strength heading into the official release at 2 PM.

It was, however, at 2:04 PM that the market really took off and moved higher and higher.

While it may have been the official release of the minutes that was the proximal cause of the further rally, perhaps coincidentally, it occurred just as the DJIA had fallen to and successfully tested the 17600 level, which proved to be a resistance point on Tuesday.

Yesterday, after testing that point for just a moment, and again, perhaps coincidentally, the market turned a decent gain into a really nice one.

With some decent earnings for the week and a more mature look at what interest rate increases might mean at such an early stage, there was some hope that the market would be able to maintain this forward momentum as the monthly option cycle was getting ready to come to its end.

At least things didn’t go downhill today and stay there.

The market finished virtually unchanged and didn’t spend too much time traveling about, either.

With earnings reports for this week and for this current cycle now near the end of the ones that really matter for the broader market, we may begin to fall into that more quiet time of the year when most talk starts centering on retailers and their holiday sales.

Using the past as a guide, that typically means considering adding retailers in advance of the official start of the season and holding on through the end of that season, as the script is usually fairly consistent.

Expectations are usually low and results are usually better than expected.

That tends to be a good formula for buying and selling.

But that might be easier to do if the market maintains its strength this week and allows for some assignments of some existing positions and creating some freed up cash to recycle into that sector, where appropriate.

For today it was just a case of sitting back and taking the time to see where the opportunities might arise.

Tomorrow will hopefully bring those opportunities to life.

Daily Market Update – November 19,  2015  (7:30 PM)

Yesterday was a big surprise.

There were 2 things that happened that made it an impressive day.

The first was the manner in which the market reacted to the release of last month’s FOMC minutes, which indicated a much more hawkish tone and one that made it pretty clear that the intent was to raise interest rates soon.

That the market didn’t run away in terror was a good sign.

There was already some word that would be the news in the minutes and that may have been the reason that the market had opened with some strength heading into the official release at 2 PM.

It was, however, at 2:04 PM that the market really took off and moved higher and higher.

While it may have been the official release of the minutes that was the proximal cause of the further rally, perhaps coincidentally, it occurred just as the DJIA had fallen to and successfully tested the 17600 level, which proved to be a resistance point on Tuesday.

Yesterday, after testing that point for just a moment, and again, perhaps coincidentally, the market turned a decent gain into a really nice one.

With some decent earnings for the week and a more mature look at what interest rate increases might mean at such an early stage, there’s some hope that the market will be able to maintain this forward momentum as the monthly option cycle is getting ready to come to its end.

There are some more earnings reports for this week and for this current cycle, but we are now near the end of the ones that really matter for the broader market and so we may begin to fall into that more quiet time of the year when most talk starts centering on retailers and their holiday sales.

Using the past as a guide, that typically means considering adding retailers in advance of the official start of the season and holding on through the end of that season, as the script is usually fairly consistent.

Expectations are usually low and results are usually better than expected.

That tends to be a good formula for buying and selling.

But that might be easier to do if the market maintains its strength this week and allows for some assignments of some existing positions and creating some freed up cash to recycle into that sector, where appropriate.

For now, it may just be a case of sitting back for these last two days of the cycle and see where the opportunities arise.

Daily Market Update – November 18,  2015  (Close)

Yesterday was a disappointing day, as it looked as if the market was building nicely on the surprising gains from Monday.

As has been the case on a number of occassions over the past month, the market just seemed to stop dead in its tracks and then headed the other way.

In this case there really was no news, nor were there any of the technical factors that people like to point toward when explaining sudden changes in behavior.

The third reason so frequently given, and is most likely the one that has some validity, is that programmatic selling took hold.

That’s the same as saying “I don’t really know what happened, so we’ll blame it on something unseen.”

But it makes sense and a single large sell order could be the trigger for others looking closely at price movements and trading volume,

This morning, maybe not too surprisingly, showed a somewhat confused futures market. It really didn’t seem to know what it wanted to do and there wasn’t likely to be very much news coming today, at least not planned news to help the market decide.

When that’s the case it can be a situation of “follow the leader” as yesterday’s turnaround may have been and fear and greed become more important than facts and fundamentals.

But if you recall yesterday, the turnaround on a dime occurred at the DJIA 17600 level.

Today, the market actually started a slow climb higher from the open, as the futures showed some late improvement.

Then the DJIA passed the 17600 mark and promptly fell back toward it in a test.

But as it did, it really found some support there and then just went off like a rocket, again the big move started right around 2 PM.

The earlier move higher, starting prior to the opening, came as the FOMC minutes from last month were released and the talk was all hawkish.

Now it seems as if traders have again come to their good senses and realize that a small rate increase can’t be a bad thing.

With some more earnings coming this week, there’s some hope that the news from Home Depot and Wal-Mart will be more reflective of what’s going on than has been the case with Macy’s and Nordstroms, although you do have to wonder what the meaning may be if the lower end of retail is picking up and the middle and higher ends are struggling.

Generally, in the past, increases in employment statistics and wages have seen relative decreases at Wal-Mart and the dollar stores and more shopping at the aspirational kind of stores, like Target and Kohls.

But maybe in a really protracted period of poor job numbers, Wal-Mart may be aspirational for those that haven’t had employment for far too long of a time.

That both Home Depot and Lowes reported good earnings is at least a positive bit of news, but there still has to be validation from others that there is truly something at hand pointing toward an expansion of the economy at the level of housing.

For the rest of the week, I don’t think I’ll be spending any more money. I did enjoy watching shares just move higher and erase some of the real unwarranted declines of last week

I’m hopeful that the final days of the week will see some support for those positions expiring on Friday. So far, this week does give that hope,

My preference would be to see assignments, but as always, I wouldn’t turn my back on any rollovers.

Daily Market Update – November 18,  2015  (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was a disappointing day, as it looked as if the market was building niceley on the surprising gains from Monday.

As has been the case on a number of occassions over the past month, the market just seemed to stop dead in its tracks and then headed the other way.

In this case there really was no news, nor were there any of the technical factors that people like to point toward when explaining sudden changes in behavior.

The third reason so frequently given, and is most likely the one that has some validity, is that programmatic selling took hold.

That’s the same as saying “I don’t really know what happened, so we’ll blame it on something unseen.”

But it makes sense and a single large sell order could be the trigger for others looking closely at price movements and trading volume,

This morning, maybe not too surprisingly, shows a somewhat confused futures market. It really doesn’t know what it wants to do and there isn’t likely to be very much news coming today, at least not planned news to help the market decide.

When that’s the case it can be a situation of “follow the leader” as yesterday’s turnaround may have been and fear and greed become more important than facts and fundamentals.

With some more earnings coming this week, there’s some hope that the news from Home Depot and Wal-Mart will be more reflective of what’s going on than has been the case with Macy’s and Nordstroms, although you do have to wonder what the meaning may be if the lower end of retail is picking up and the middle and higher ends are struggling.

Generally, in the past, increases in employment statistics and wages have seen relative decreases at Wal-Mart and the dollar stores and more shopping at the aspirational kind of stores, like Target and Kohls.

But maybe in a really protracted period of poor job numbers, Wal-Mart may be aspirational for those that haven’t had employment for far too long of a time.

That both Home Depot and Lowes reported good earnings is at least a positive bit of news, but there still has to be validation from others that there is truly something at hand pointing toward an expansion of the economy at the level of housing.

For the rest of the week, I don’t think I’ll be spending any more money.

I’m hopeful that the final days of the week will see some support for those positions expiring on Friday.

My preference would be to see assignments, but as always, I wouldn’t turn my back on any rollovers.