Daily Market Update – April 12, 2016 (Close)

You probably shouldn’t even try to explain yesterday and even though there was an explanation for today, I’ll believe it when I see it.

As far as yesterday goes, there’s usually a reason for a gap move higher or lower, but yesterday’s higher open didn’t really have too much behind it.

So it may have been a little understandable why the move higher couldn’t be sustained.

But then came the rebound that restored much of what was lost.

That may have been hard to explain, as well.

That rebound didn’t get quite as high as the original gap move, so maybe some technicians may have soured at that point.

Maybe that explains the final leg lower to end the day seeing the market take a small loss.

Who knows.

This morning the futures were headed mildly higher as we awaited tomorrow’s big first earnings test.

That test is the beginning of financial season. Alcoa doesn’t really count anymore. Now it’s JP Morgan Chase that sets the season off to the races and expectations are really low.

I didn’t expect too much action yesterday, but it was an active day, just not for me.

It was safer just sitting and watching, while looking for any opportunity to manage existing positions.

I thought today would be more of the same.

What happened, was what has  been just about the only reliable catalyst for all of 2016 kicking in.

It was another large move higher by oil and the market followed, never really considering giving the gain a second thought.

What made me give it a second thought, while I did enjoyed seeing my shares move higher, was the news that the oil move was based upon.

It was the same news from about a month ago when there was a report that there would be a cut in oil production agreed to by OPEC and non-OPEC members.

Oil and stocks soared on that news, until someone realized that Iran wasn’t in agreement, just as they were ramping up to really start bringing product to market.

When the realization hit, oil and stocks reversed course.

Today, the rumor was that Saudi Arabia and Russia will agree to large cutbacks this coming Sunday.

As I said, I’ll believe it when I see it and I would expect Iran to announce it’s rushing in to fill any void left by those 2 big players, as if everyone else won’t be cheating, as well.

So today’s gain was really nice, but nothing would be better than some better than expected earnings reports starting tomorrow morning.

Daily Market Update – April 12, 2016 (7:30 AM)

You probably shouldn’t even try to explain yesterday.

There’s usually a reason for a gap move higher or lower, but yesterday’s higher open didn’t really have too much behind it.

So it may have been a little understandable why the move higher couldn’t be sustained.

But then came the rebound that restored much of what was lost.

That may have been hard to explain, as well.

That rebound didn’t get quite as high as the original gap move, so maybe some technicians may have soured at that point.

Maybe that explains the final leg lower to end the day seeing the market take a small loss.

Who knows

This morning the futures are headed mildly higher as we await tomorrow’s big test.

That test is the beginning of financial season. Alcoa doesn’t really count anymore. Now it’s JP Morgan Chase that sets the season off to the races and expectations are really low.

I didn’t expect too much action yesterday, but it was an active day, just not for me.

It was safer just sitting and watching, while looking for any opportunity to manage existing positions.

I think today will be the same.

Daily Market Update – April 11, 2016 (Close)

Last week was a confusing one, with maybe the only real impetus for optimism coming from some of the comforting words from Janet Yellen, even as she seemed to sometimes speak from both sides of the podium.

Earlier in the week and consistent with the previous week, she was dovish. The sense was that interest rates wouldn’t be coming anytime too soon.

That made investors, who seem not to actually care about the health of the economy happy.

But on Thursday evening, when in the company of Volcker, Greenspan and Bernanke, she seemed to be indicating that those rate increases were a sure thing.

Most everyone knows that, but it’s a question of when.

I guess despite her Thursday evening position, it didn’t seem really right around the corner.

This week starts the beginning of another earnings season and no one is expecting much, unless they were expecting to become even more confused.

Today was a great day to add to that confusion. All you had to do was to look at the morning’s gap higher, then the give back of those gains, then the recovery and then the final giveback.

All of this happened on a day that oil ended the day nearly 2% higher.

So that was fun, I guess.

The real fun starts Wednesday morning as JP Morgan Chase reports and much of the financial sector reports in the following days.

The previous quarter’s guidance by banks was weak, so maybe no one is expecting to be disappointed, but any further disappointment or any further downbeat guidance isn’t going to weigh well on the rest of the stock market.

I don’t mind spending money this week after not having opened any new positions over the past two weeks, but I’m looking more at retail.

Retail doesn’t report for a month or so, with some exceptions.

Much of that sector got hit to end the week and has been week for a bit longer than that, perhaps offering an entry.

With the April 2016 option cycle coming to an end this month, I only have a single position to roll over and no ex-dividend positions this week, so I am on the lookout for some income opportunities.

But as with the last couple of weeks, I think I may continue to be cautious. Today was aq good day to be cautious and not to get caught up in that early strength, nor to get re-assured by the bounce back.

This morning had the futures pointing higher, but maybe desperately in need of a reason.

I may need more appearances than that to loosen up some purse strings.

A reason would be nice.

Daily Market Update – April 11, 2016 (Close)

Last week was a confusing one, with maybe the only real impetus for optimism coming from some of the comforting words from Janet Yellen, even as she seemed to sometimes speak from both sides of the podium.

Earlier in the week and consistent with the previous week, she was dovish. The sense was that interest rates wouldn’t be coming anytime too soon.

That made investors, who seem not to actually care about the health of the economy happy.

But on Thursday evening, when in the company of Volcker, Greenspan and Bernanke, she seemed to be indicating that those rate increases were a sure thing.

Most everyone knows that, but it’s a question of when.

I guess despite her Thursday evening position, it didn’t seem really right around the corner.

This week starts the beginning of another earnings season and no one is expecting much, unless they were expecting to become even more confused.

Today was a great day to add to that confusion. All you had to do was to look at the morning’s gap higher, then the give back of those gains, then the recovery and then the final giveback.

All of this happened on a day that oil ended the day nearly 2% higher.

So that was fun, I guess.

The real fun starts Wednesday morning as JP Morgan Chase reports and much of the financial sector reports in the following days.

The previous quarter’s guidance by banks was weak, so maybe no one is expecting to be disappointed, but any further disappointment or any further downbeat guidance isn’t going to weigh well on the rest of the stock market.

I don’t mind spending money this week after not having opened any new positions over the past two weeks, but I’m looking more at retail.

Retail doesn’t report for a month or so, with some exceptions.

Much of that sector got hit to end the week and has been week for a bit longer than that, perhaps offering an entry.

With the April 2016 option cycle coming to an end this month, I only have a single position to roll over and no ex-dividend positions this week, so I am on the lookout for some income opportunities.

But as with the last couple of weeks, I think I may continue to be cautious. Today was aq good day to be cautious and not to get caught up in that early strength, nor to get re-assured by the bounce back.

This morning had the futures pointing higher, but maybe desperately in need of a reason.

I may need more appearances than that to loosen up some purse strings.

A reason would be nice.

Daily Market Update – April 11, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Last week was a confusing one, with maybe the only real impetus for optimism coming from some of the comforting words from Janet Yellen, even as she seemed to sometimes speak from both sides of the podium.

Earlier in the week and consistent with the previous week, she was dovish. The sense was that interest rates wouldn’t be coming anytime too soon.

That made investors, who seem not to actually care about the health of the economy happy.

But on Thursday evening, when in the company of Volcker, Greenspan and Bernanke, she seemed to be indicating that those rate increases were a sure thing.

Most everyone knows that, but it’s a question of when.

I guess despite her Thursday evening position, it didn’t seem really right around the corner.

This week starts the beginning of another earnings season and no one is expecting much.

The real fun starts Wednesday morning as JP Morgan Chase reports and much of the financial sector reports in the following days.

The previous quarter’s guidance by banks was weak, so maybe no one is expecting to be disappointed, but any further disappointment or any further downbeat guidance isn’t going to weigh well on the rest of the stock market.

I don’t mind spending money this week after not having opened any new positions over the past two weeks, but I’m looking more at retail.

Retail doesn’t report for a month or so, with some exceptions.

Much of that sector got hit to end the week and has been week for a bit longer than that, perhaps offering an entry.

With the April 2016 option cycle coming to an end this month, I only have a single position to roll over and no ex-dividend positions this week, so I am on the lookout for some income opportunities.

But as with the last couple of weeks, I think I may continue to be cautious.

This morning has the futures pointing higher, but maybe in need of a reason.

I may need more than that to loosen up some purse strings.