Category Archives: Week in Review

 

Option to Profit Week in Review December 1 – 5,  2014

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED
3 / 3	5	3	3  /  0	2  / 0	0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

December 1 – 5, 2014

New positions opened this week out-performed the S&P 500 by 1.5% on an unadjusted basis and 1.6% on an unadjusted basis, as the overall market was only 0.4% higher for the week and the newly opened positions ended the week 1.9% higher.

Positions closed in 2014 have finished 3.6% higher, as compared to 1.9% for the S&P 500 for the comparable holding periods. That 1.7% advantage represents an 83.7% difference in return.

Once again, this was a good week for those without an extensive exposure to the energy sector. History tells us that the pain to investors from low gas oil prices is usually far shorter lasting than the pain to consumers from high prices, but regardless of which side you’re on you can’t wait for the pain to end.

I think I’ll scream if I hear yet another person say that the cure for low oil prices is more low oil prices. I suppose that’s true, but for now I’ve had enough of that remedy and am really ready for some turnaround.

This was another week with relatively little occuring to move markets in either direction. Even 6 Federal Reserve Governor speeches, the ADP Jobs Report, the ECB Policy announcement and the Employment Situation Report were all essentially non-events.

As opposed to the previous week which ended in fairly dramatic form as the energy sector may have had  its capitulation, this week ended on the same whimper as it experienced all through the week, except for the one day when it was acknowledged that low energy prices would be beneficial to the economy.

Somehow that came as a surprise.

The problem, however, may be that history doesn’t have very many examples of recent drops in energy prices due to increased supply. What we do know is that when those drops come because of decreased demand the stock market hasn’t been a particularly inviting place.

To a large degree this is uncharted territory, but the hope is that all of this cheap energy will prompt a little fire under the nascently expanding economy and lead to even more and better paying jobs, which in turn leads to more spending and even a little bit of inflation.

All of that would be good for people and markets.

Expecting a quiet week it was a nice surprise to find it busier than I had been expecting, thanks to some opportunities to find some buyers for calls on uncovered positions and the ability to roll some positions over.

What was more helpful, perhaps, was having another week of lots of ex-dividend positions. I like those days when the surprise deposit into the account is made representing that dividend payment. Between last week and this week there will be lots of those surprises.

With a few assignments this week and some rollovers there are now positions set to expire in each of the next 5 weeks, with the majority of them in the next two weeks. With volatility so low there isn’t much incentive or opportunity to look at the longer term expanded weekly options unless trying to protect a dividend or taking advantage of an upcoming earnings report that drives premiums higher.

For the coming week with some additional cash to spend I would still like to replicate this past week, if possible and look more toward rollovers and new call sales, rather than committing too much of the assignment proceeds into new positions.

If, however, in doing so, I would look at expiration dates for either of the next two weeks in an attempt to have some assignments occur in each of those weeks, as well, in an effort to create some kind of stream of cash for either re-investment of for just hiding away for a rainy day.

Unfortunately, next week doesn’t offer the same kind of flurry of ex-dividend positions, so there may need to be some replacement for the passivity of the past two weeks, but I’m perfectly game if the market is willing to cooperate.

.

   

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   DOW, MOS, SBGI

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  BX, JOY

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  GPS (1/9/15)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  DOW (1/2/15), FAST (12/20), GM (12/26), JOY (12/20)

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: DOW, GPS, MOS

Calls Expired:  EBAY, GDX

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: JOY (12/2 $0.20), HFC (12/2 $0.32), MOS (12/2 $0.25), COH (12/3 $0.34), HAL (12/3 $0.18), NEM (12/3 $0.025)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  GM (12/8 $0.30)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, BP, CHK, CLF, COH, EBAY, FCX, GDX, HAL, HFC, .JCP,  LULU, LVS, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PBR, RIG, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit Week in Review November 24 – 28,  2014

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED
4 / 4	1	4	0  /  0	3  / 0	0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

November 24 – 28, 2014

New positions opened this week out-performed the S&P 500 on both an adjusted and unadjusted basis bu 0.8% this week, as the overall market was only 0.2% higher for the week and the newly opened p[ositions ended the week 1.0% higher.

With no positions assigned this week the 2014 total of 191 positions have finished 3.6% higher, as compared to 2.0% for the S&P 500 for the comparable holding periods. That 1.6% advantage represents a 83.1% difference in return.

For those with relatively little energy exposure this was a good week, but for those with an equal or disproportionate exposure, Friday was a brutal day, as the week may have ended on a note of capitulation for those stocks.

Other than speculation about what was going to come out of Thursday’s OPEC meeting there was very little going on this week and the market had essentially nothing to respond to, as even the GDP, revisions and all, was a non-event.

It had been a nice and calm week with some reasonable trading activity and results leading up to the Thanksgiving Day holiday.

With Thursday a day off, there was reason to think that today would be like many other Fridays after Thanksiving over the years and would be the beginning to what is traditionally an above average end to the year.

Instead, the week ended as a really good example of the power of individual sectors and how they can obscure what was happening in the much broader market.

The week ended in dramatic form, continiong a consistent erosion in oil prices over the past month.

While energy, in all forms, had an unbelievable response to OPEC’s decision to do nothing, it’s dramatic drop may not have met the traditional criteria to have been considered as having capitulated, its price drop was still stunning.

That drop basically came all at once anjd didn’t detriorate in any meaningful or frenzied way during a thankfully shortened trading session.

While logic says that  such a sharp drop in energy prices has to be good, that’s not necessarily the case for US markets.

Where this drop differs from other drops is that it is likely that growing supply has outpaced demand. In cases where the market has fallen as energy prices have fallen it has been because declining demand led to an over-supply.

So maybe this time around the market will do the logical thing and head higher as input costs can head significantly lower, unless companies are tied down by long term and expensive commodity contracts.

Of course, for the end use, the prospects of significantly decreased energy costs, esepcially as winter is here, could translate into more cash avalilable for discretionary spending. Who knows, decreased gas prices could also lead to more driving and increased federal and state gas tax revenues, too.

Those benefits, though, may not come close to offsetting share price declines that were really ourtageous today.

It was a good week to have opebned some new positions and it was also a good time to have executed some early rollovers, rather than waiting for the end of the week. Just witness the very hard decline in Dow Chemical today, that probably due to its petrocjhemical businesses was hit as hard as any other company solely in the energy sector. The move in Dow Chemical took it from being a “sure thiing” assignment, to one that ened the week far out of the money, but a logical stock to have some seller’s remorse kind of rebound.

Next week may see some continuing fallout from OPEC’s unexpected, but logical decision to not cut supply, at least in the energy sector. It would be reasonable, though, to see some broader buying, both to be part of that traditional December rally and in the belief that falling energy prices are good for the economy, which in turn must be good for markets.

The latter has to remain to be seen, but I’m not adverse to adding some new positions next week, but again may look at trying to further populate the December 12, 2014 expiration, as there are already a fair number of positions expiring next week.

While this was a frustrating week if holding energy, it was at least a nice week for collecting lots of dividends. Next week will be the same and I increasingly do not want to put dividends at risk for early assignment as the contiinuing decrease in volatility is also reducing the reward from trying to double dip.

For now, I’m happy to have a few extra hours of no trading this week, especially after the demonstration of how punishing the market can be, even when the events aren’t really surprising.

I’m hopeful that the drop in oil and the entire sector will in fact be the same as a capitulation, but  that’s now far from certain as the dynamics of supply are very complex and the players are all, rightfully, distrustful of one another.

 

For anyone who has ever played the Prisoner’s Dilemma game, that is exactly what the world is looking at now, as producers will jockey fro what they believe will bring them an optimal outcome.

The likelihood is that whatever they choose it will be good for us, as people, but not bnecessarily good for us as investors, with or without exposure to energy. 

 

   

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   GDX, GME, JOY, LXK

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  JOY

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  GDX (12/12), GME (12/12), LVS (12/12)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  TMUS (12/12)

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: none

Calls Expired:  BP, DOW, JOY

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: MAT (11/24 $0.38), HFC (11/25 $0.50 Special Dividend), K (11/26 $0.49), LXK (11/15 $0.36), SBGI (11/26 $0.16)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  JOY (12/2 $0.20), HFC (12/2 $0.32), MOS (12/2 $0.25), COH (12/3 $0.34), HAL (12/3 $0.18), NEM (12/3 $0.025)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, CHK, CLF, COH, FAST, FCX, GM, HAL, HFC, .JCP,  LULU, LVS, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PBR, RIG, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit Week in ReviewNovember 10 – 14,  2014

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED
4 / 4	2	3	3  /  0	2  / 0	0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

November 10 – 14, 2014

With 4 new purchases this week, it was still below the year’s average, but more active than in a while, even though there wasn’t too much going on in the markets or the world.

New purchases out-performed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 1.1% and the unndjusted S&P 500 by 0.9%. 

The new positions were ahead 1.1% for the week while the unadjusted index was 0.4% higher and the adjusted index was 0.5% higher.

 With this week’s 3 newly closed positions, bringing the 2014 total now to 183 positions, those have finished 3.5% higher, as compared to 1.8% for the S&P 500 for the comparable holding periods. That 1.7% advantage represents a 92.3% difference in return.

This was yet another week that was hard characterize.

As opposed to last week when lots of things happened, this week had very little going and and for the most part, the market was very sedate all through the week.

This was another week with very little options volume and again with fairly large bid and ask spreads, following the pattern of the past few weeks and making it increasingly difficult to get trades, especially rollovers accomplished at prices that make them worth doing.

While getting those kind of maintenance trades done, there was some opportunity to open new positions. More than in the past month, but still below where I would like a typical week to be.

At least the new positions performed reasonably well in a week that itself was mildly to moderately higher.

There were also some opportunities, although still far from enough, to sell some new options on uncovered positions. Add a couple of rollovers and a handful of assignments and it was beginning to feel a little bit more like an acceptable week. Of course, ultimately it always has to be the bottom line that’s the judge.

With some recycled cash to begin next we
ek and already having about 10 positions set to expire, I wouldn’t mind adding some new positions, but would especially like to be able to get option contracts expiring during the upcoming December 2014 option cycle.

However, with volatility so low, it is again challenging to find premiums that make it worth going out much in time, especially if the market continues reaching new highs. That’s especially true because the dried up option volume also makes it very difficult to close out positions that are well within the money in an attempt to put the assets to work in something more productive. That has been the case for Bristol Myers Squibb and Campbells Soup and was the case for International Paper.

While there is an FOMC Statement on Wednesday, there’s not too much on the economic calendar next week and earnings season is coming to its end,. There are, however, some potentially interesting trades for next week in that area. With a little bit of cash being added to the pile and what may be a traditional good last 6 weeks of the year, there may be reason to test the waters with the cash, possibly sacrificing some premium for share capital gains.

The one caveat is that with the FOMC coming just 2 days before the monthly option cycle ends, there may be some reason to be cautious and consider rollovers a little earlier than usual, in the event the market has some distaste for what will be said.

That hasn’t been the case for a really long time, but you never do know.

Hopefully the market will either continue in an uptrend or trade at current levels, offering some opportunity to either capitalize on premiums or share gains until the end of the year, when by some miracle, an entirely new mindset seems to always take hold, particularly as hedge funds start with a clean slate.

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   CY, INTC, MAT, SBGI

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  GDX, LO

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  DOW (11/28)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  LVS (11/22), TGT (12/20)

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: EMC, INTC, IP

Calls Expired:  JOY, TMUS

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: CLF (11/12 $0.12), RIG (11/13 $0.75)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  TGT (11/17 $0.51)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, BX, BP, CHK, CLF, COH, EBAY, FCX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, .JCP,  LULU, LVS, MCP, MOS,  NEM, RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit Week in ReviewNovember 3 – 7,  2014

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED
1 / 2	3	1	3  /  1	3  / 0	0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

November 3 – 7, 2014

This was another in a string of weeks with very little new purchase activity. Following two successive weeks of no purchases at all, even this week’s two new positions seems like a lot, but it is still far below the kind of activity I would like to see.

The two new positions were ahead 1.0% for the week and surpassed both the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500, which was 0.7% higher for the week, by 0.3%.

 With this week’s 3 newly closed positions, bringing the 2014 total now to
180 positions, those have finished 3.5% higher, as compared to 1.8% for the S&P 500 for the comparable holding periods. That 1.7% advantage represents a 92.4% difference in return.

This is another week that’s hard to characterize.

There was lots of news but not very much happened. Where we knew what the outcome would be ahead of time, the elections, the market acted surprised.

When we really had no idea of what to expect, such as with the ECB decision and the Employment Situation Report, the market just yawned.

But still, it was a week, just like many before, that saw multiple closing highs, including eking out new closing highs to end the week.

What really characterized the week for me was again seeing how much the options volume is drying up on routine positions. The kind that aren’t associated with upcoming earnings or otherwise in the news. There is much less trading going on and the bid – asks spreads are wider than ever, as the ultra-low volatility is again making it less welcoming.

I interpret the lack of selling of call contracts as an expression of continuing bullish sentiment. When the market is on a trend moving higher and you don’t see people trying to sell their calls, it’s because they think that those shares are going to move even higher.

Of course, that also means that there are buyers, who are also bullish, and who look at the situation as almost ideal, since they can get options at low premiums due to the low volatility. The problem, however, is that in reality they can’t get anything at the low prices because no one is selling and the gap between bid and ask is unusually hard to bridge as no one wants to move toward a compromise on price.

What is especially unusual, though, is that potential sellers are taking that bullishness with them literally to the grave. A good example today, but there have been many over the past few weeks, was British Petroleum.

Absolutely no one was willing to sell contracts expiring today on the out of the money $42.50 option,  after an opening bell flourish. Finally, only in the final minutes did bids start popping up, as even the most optimistic thought they could squeeze a few extra cents out by selling their momentarily expiring calls to someone.

That expression of bullishness seems very bearish to me. It is a reflection of greed. It may, however, be a sign of some desperation, as well.

There has been lots of talk recently about how the vast majority of hedge fund managers are under-performing the index. With the year about to come to its close that may mean more and more unhedged activity on their part as they try to catch up and one of the things that may get tossed out the window are their offers to sell options, in the hopes of catching stocks like Whole Foods.

So that bullishness offers lots of frustration.

With the volume so hard to come by it has been very difficult to get trades, especially rollovers, accomplished. You need to have willing traders and fair prices on both sides to get anything done.

It was a week of lots of unrequited trades.

At least, however, there were some new call sales and a single rollover and it was alright just going along for the ride.

For next week there’s absolutely no indication of where the catalysts for anything may be, higher or lower.

There was some rumor of a Russian incursion into Ukraine, but that wasn’t confirmed and so next week may be a clean slate as earnings season moves into its tail end.

For yet another week I don’t plan on too many additions to the portfolio. This week did allow for some addition to cash piles and I would like to add even more. If the market behaves and sends prices higher I would again be very happy to find cover for uncovered positions and see some mix of assignments and rollovers of the positions set to expire next week.

However, as long as volatility stays so low and there is a seller boycott or unwillingness to converge on price, I may see fewer rollovers by choice, rather than because of adverse share situation. As with British Petroleum today, I think I would rather then take my chances on being able to sell a new call when the pricing is right and avoid some of the buyback and transaction costs, especially as the premiums are so low.

 

 

   

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   BP, TWTR (puts)

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  LO

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  FAST (11/22), GDX (11/14), JOY (11/14)

Put contracts expired: TWTR

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: F, INTC, WFM

Calls Expired:  ANF, BP, LVS

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: BP (11/5 $0.60), WLT (11/6 $0.01)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  CLF (11/12 $0.15), IP (11/13 $0.40), RIG (11/12 $0.75)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, BX, BP, CHK, CLF, COH, EBAY, FCX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, .JCP,  LULU, LVS, MCP, MOS,  NEM, RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit Week in ReviewOctober 27 – 31,  2014

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED
2 / 2	4	4	1  / 0	2  / 0	0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

October 27 – 31, 2014

After two consecutive weeks of no new purchases it was nice to finally do something, but following two consecutive days of gains totaling nearly 400 points it was hard to keep up.

The two new purchases, both dividend plays, were ahead 2.2% for the week, but still lagged the S&P 500 which was 2.7% higher for the week and 2.6% higher on an adjusted basis, following a nearly 2% move higher in those same 2 days.

Unlike previous weeks that characterized the sharp upward climb coming after a ne
arly 9% drop, this time around there was news to account for the market’s movement, especially to end the week, with some very unexpected news coming from the Bank of Japan.

For the first time in 3 weeks there was an assignment, albeit just one. Closed positions finished 3.5% higher, as compared to 1.8% for the S&P 500 for the comparable holding periods. That 1.7% advantage represents a 93% difference in return.

 

It’s hard to know how to characterize this week.

It ended on a real surprise, although it was the good kind of surprise.

No one expected the Bank of Japan to do what everyone has been saying was need to be done by the European Central Bank.

Everyone agreed that the unexpected action is what sent markets soaring from the outset on Friday and as opposed to the market’s sharp climb on Thursday, the week ending surge was broad and not confined to a very small segment of the market and not so wholly reliant on the performance of a single stock.

As has been the case with the majority of hedge funds in 2014, when you have a week that climbs so strongly, hedgers are left in the dust. That happened this week, especially if you have some significant energy holdings which continue to lag the market and may also be responsible for some of the broad advances as low energy prices are good for most everyone other than those owning energy stocks.

This week, though, was one where there was at least some more trading activity in the past few weeks, in addition to the 2 new purchases to get the flow of income moving once again, especially after a very fallow week last week.

This week there was a decent combination of rollovers and sales of calls on uncovered positions, in addition to the single assignment.

Of course, I still want more of each of those categories.

Next week already has 6 positions set to expire and with a little bit of cash replenishment I may be interested in adding some additional positions, but would still be far more interested in making what already exists become more productive portfolio members.

With volatility back to its very low levels, with very little mention by the very people that were shouting from the rooftops about its climb, the option premiums, especially for out of the money strikes, such as are used in the DOH Trades aren’t very attractive and just don’t offer much in the way of enticement.

For those that look at the daily updated spreadsheet, you may have noticed an additional column to the far left. coded in “Red” and “Green.”  That column represents the break even price on positions that includes all realized premiums and dividends and can act as a guide as to what strike price, if assigned, can be sold without incurring a net loss on a position. The guide may be helpful in identifying opportunities to capitalize on achieving premiums even at strikes below the original purchase price and that would still result in a gain for the position.

I may come to rely on those more frequently in order to accomplish 3 things:

     a. generate more premium income

     b. generate more cash reserves through increased assignments

     c. reduce the total number of holdings and lots

As is usually the case, the ideal time to try to do such trades is during upward moves in shares, despite the declining premiums that ensue.

As opposed to DOH Trades, in which you generally would prefer not to have your shares assigned, as it would represent a net loss, the decision to rollover positions that have a “Green” strike price may be done on an individual basis, depending on needs, such as “do I want to generate cash reserves?”

I don’t usually speak about individual stocks in the week end wrap up, but Intel warrants some comment.

 

Next week, for those that own Intel, which goes ex-dividend on Wednesday, you’ve probably noticed its wild swings on Thursday and Friday. With its generous dividend and shares being currently deep in the money, I may look to roll the position in one of two ways. Either roll the November 7, 2014 $33 contract to a $34 November 14, 2014 contract or roll the existing contract to a November 7, 2014 $33.50.

With Intel currently being deep in the money, either of those trades, even if assigned early and very likely to be assigned early, would add, at the current prices for options, an additional
$0.12 in premiums, to offset the likely loss of the $0.22 in dividend, while allowing the funds to be re-invested in some other income producing position.

So if that Trading Alert comes your way, don’t scratch your head, too much. Given the extremely heavy put option activity on Thursday, some of which expired today, anything can still happen with those shares, as someone made a very, very big bet that Intel shares would be heading lower.

Quickly.

So far, they are wrong and the large block of $33.50 in the money puts that expired today lost about $0.90/share in the 2 day transaction, as there wasn’t any evidence of them being rolled forward. It was simply a very big bet that was allowed to die, although the bet is still on for the week of November 14th.

But that’s just a single stock.

So as hard as it is to characterize this past week, it’s even harder to understand what next week may bring. It’s never easy, but if anyone has any clue as to what next week may bring, let me know, because I’m not a big believer that Quantitative Easing in other countries is necessarily good for the US markets, as it would do what our QE did.

That is, siphon money from foreign markets into our own, except this time we’re the foreign market.

 

 

   

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   F, INTC

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:  F, LVS

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  DOW (11/14), EMC (11/14)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  ANF (11/7), K (12/20), LO (11/7), TMUS (11/14)

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: WFM

Calls Expired:  BX, GM

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: F (10/29 $0.12)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  INTC (11/5 $0.22), WLT (11/6 $0.01)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BX, CHK, CLF, COH, EBAY, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, .JCP, JOY  LULU, LVS, MCP, MOS,  NEM, RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



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