Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – February 1, 2016 (Close)

There’s no doubt that the finish to last week was a nice one, but you do have to question the reasons for the market’s gain.

Sometimes following a big loss the market just has some sort of reflexive rebound. We’ve been having some of those over the past two months, but most of those have been pretty anemic.

The other reason that the market has gone higher on some rare occasions has been because oil prices moved higher.

That’s not a very good reason to move higher and at some point the market will realize that it may be a reason to move lower.

But it seems that the reason the market may have moved higher on Thursday and Friday was related to news of weakening global economies.

Why else would the Bank of Japan lower their interest rate to below zero?

In your wildest dreams did you ever imagine that you would get paid to borrow money?

But in addition to that came news that the GDP in the United States grew at what could also only be called an anemic pace.

The market looks as if it had gotten back to the belief that a weak economy would mean that the Federal Reserve would be pumping away in support of the economy and then indirectly support of stocks and to the detriment of bonds.

Good theory, but the Federal Reserve may not have quite the same ammunition it had when it first started in its efforts to save markets and the economy about 8 years ago.

This Friday brings the Employment Situation Report and it will be very interesting to see if there are downward adjustments, especially after last month’s blow away number.

In the current frame of mind the market looks as if it would embrace any bad news, just like it had done for much of the last few years.

For the briefest of times it looked as if we were finally growing up and were going to revel in good news, but that may no longer be the case.

This week may be the third successive week with no personal trades.

I’m not hoping for that to be the case, but as there is some weakness in the futures to start the week, I’m not very excited about jumping aboard after the large gains that came to end the previous week.

I was in a frame of mind to not mind seeing some flatness today. Although the day did finish flat, it looked as if it might be yet another sell-off as oil started to plunge again.

But there was a nice recovery in the market, maybe further signaling that the price of oil and the stock market are going to go back to a more normal kind of co-existence.

I hope the flatness continues tomorrow, but is listless all through the day and not just on a net basis  I’d much rather see that than another in a series of large declines or even large gains

I’m not looking for deeper discounts on share price, but rather some reason to believe that a bottom is at least in the formation process.

The gains of Thursday and Friday were a little too much and too fast for very much comfort, so today was just another in that recently familiar stance of just watching.

That may change soon if there’s any evidence of stability, even for just a few days or so.

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Daily Market Update – February 1, 2016 (9:00 AM)

There’s no doubt that the finish to last week was a nice one, but you do have to question the reasons for the market’s gain.

Sometimes following a big loss the market just has some sort of reflexive rebound. We’ve been having some of those over the past two months, but most of those have been pretty anemic.

The other reason that the market has gone higher on some rare occasions has been because oil prices moved higher.

That’s not a very good reason to move higher and at some point the market will realize that it may be a reason to move lower.

But it seems that the reason the market may have moved higher on Thursday and Friday was related to news of weakening global economies.

Why else would the Bank of Japan lower their interest rate to below zero?

In your wildest dreams did you ever imagine that you would get paid to borrow money?

But in addition to that came news that the GDP in the United States grew at what could also only be called an anemic pace.

The market looks as if it had gotten back to the belief that a weak economy would mean that the Federal Reserve would be pumping away in support of the economy and then indirectly support of stocks and to the detriment of bonds.

Good theory, but the Federal Reserve may not have quite the same ammunition it had when it first started in its efforts to save markets and the economy about 8 years ago.

This Friday brings the Employment Situation Report and it will be very interesting to see if there are downward adjustments, especially after last month’s blow away number.

In the current frame of mind the market looks as if it would embrace any bad news, just like it had done for much of the last few years.

For the briefest of times it looked as if we were finally growing up and were going to revel in good news, but that may no longer be the case.

This week may be the third successive week with no personal trades.

I’m not hoping for that to be the case, but as there is some weakness in the futures to start the week, I’m not very excited about jumping aboard after the large gains that came to end the previous week.

I wouldn’t mind seeing some flatness today and maybe tomorrow, as well. I’d much rather see that than another in a series of large declines.

I’m not looking for deeper discounts on share price, but rather some reason to believe that a bottom is at least in the formation process.

The gains of Thursday and Friday were a little too much and too fast for very much comfort, so today may be another in that recently familiar stance of just watching.

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.

Daily Market Update – January 29, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:   none

Rollovers:   none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week: F (1/27 $0.15), FAST (1/27 $0.30), MS (1/27 $0.15), KMI  (1/28 $0.125)

The following will be ex-dividend next week: INTC (2/3 $0.26)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EST

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Daily Market Update – January 28, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was another in what has become the pattern of disappointments.

While last week did finally see 2 back to back days of nice gains, ever since hitting the post-August recovery high at the beginning of December, the market has been on a real downward spiral.

While I have always liked to pick up stocks on those kind of big downward moving days, we’ve had lots of those over the past 2 months and I’ve found very little justification for buying.

Bargains have just been getting cheaper and cheaper on an almost daily basis.

Every time there’s been the slightest sigh of breath that maybe the market was bottoming out would come a day like yesterday.

Yesterday, though, was a little different from most of the rest of the days of the past 2 months.

This time, instead of oil or China being center stage, it was the FOMC Statement release that ruled the day.

That’s the way things had been each month for the prior few years, but lately the FOMC hasn’t done much to really set the tone.

Yesterday it gave absolutely no indication of anything, but may have kept further interest rate increases on the table, even as there is little evidence to suggest that December’s rate increase was warranted.

Investors didn’t like that and they showed that dislike immediately and in a big way.

This morning’s early very mild gain meant little, especially as they became mild losses as earnings started to be announced at 7 AM. Today is actually the single biggest day for earnings reports, so maybe there could be a catalyst ahead, but it wasn’t at 7 AM.

Unfortunately, not every company can be Facebook and equally unfortunately, Facebook’s fortunes say nothing about anything other than Facebook and maybe its competitors.

Their great revenues and earnings reflect nothing upon the economy, other than maybe spending going on in Palo Alto and its suburbs.

This looks like a second consecutive week of no trades.

Just like last week was a first, having two consecutive weeks of no trades is another and leaves me very frustrated in looking for some income opportunities.

The reality has been, however, that for the first time since 2009, the meaning of “value trap” has been reflected in the market itself, not just in individual stocks.

Just as the Shanghai market is now 25% lower for the year, there is an unusually large number of stocks that are that much lower than their 2015 highs and they may still not really be bargain priced.

It will obviously take more than a good day, or even two, to start feeling a little confident in parting with cash at this point.

Today turned out to have some positive things about it as the market beat back two attempts to see it go lower. Instead, the market was able to finish decently higher, although as has been the pattern, the recovery wasn’t anywhere really enough to offset the loss from the day before.

While I’d like to be spending some money, the strange thing is that I found it easier to spend money in late 2008 and 2009 than currently. Back then the market indexes were down so much that you had to think that we were getting near a bottom sooner rather than later.

Now, those indexes are still fairly high, because of those handful of stocks creating an illusion of better health than is really the case.

I’d rather not get caught up in an illusions vortex, but a few good days, could make it easier to develop some confidence.

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Daily Market Update – January 28, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was another in what has become the pattern of disappointments.

While last week did finally see 2 back to back days of nice gains, ever since hitting the post-August recovery high at the beginning of December, the market has been on a real downward spiral.

While I have always liked to pick up stocks on those kind of big downward moving days, we;ve had lots of those over the past 2 months and I’ve found very little justification for buying.

Bargains have just been getting cheaper and cheaper on an almost daily basis.

Every time there’s been the slightest sigh of breath that maybe the market was bottoming out would come a day like yesterday.

Yesterday, though, was a little different from most of the rest of the days of the past 2 months.

This time, instead of oil or China being center stage, it was the FOMC Statement release that ruled the day.

That’s the way things had been each month for the prior few years, but lately the FOMC hasn’t done much to really set the tone.

Yesterday it gave absolutely no indication of anything, but may have kept further interest rate increases on the table, even as there is little evidence to suggest that December’s rate increase was warranted.

Investors didn’t like that and they showed that dislike immediately and in a big way.

This morning’s early very mild gain meant little, especially as they became mild losses as earnings started to be announced at 7 AM. Today is actually the single biggest day for earnings reports, so maybe there could be a catalyst ahead, but it wasn’t at 7 AM.

Unfortunately, not every company can be Facebook and equally unfortunately, Facebook’s fortunes say nothing about anything other than Facebook and maybe its competitors.

Their great revenues and earnings reflect nothing upon the economy, other than maybe spending going on in Palo Alto and its suburbs.

This looks like a second consecutive week of no trades.

Just like lat week was a first, having two consecutive weeks of no trades is another and leaves me very frustrated in looking for some income opportunities.

The reality has been, however, that for the first time since 2009, the meaning of “value trap” has been reflected in the market itself, not just in individual stocks.

Just as the Shanghai market is now 25% lower for the year, there is an unusually large number of stocks that are that much lower than their 2015 highs and they may still not really be bargain priced.

It will obviously take more than a good day, or even two, to start feeling a little confident in parting with cash at this point.

The strange thing is that I found it easier to spend money in late 2008 and 2009 than currently. back then the market indexes were down so much that you had to think that we were getting near a bottom sooner rather than later.

Now, those indexes are still fairly high, because of those handful of stocks creating an illusion of better health than is really the case.

I’d rather not get caught up in an illusions vortex.

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