Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – March 1, 2016 (7:30 AM)

While I expected that at some point the stock market would come to its senses and realize that it shouldn’t be reflexively following the path of oil, I don’t particularly want that realization to come until stocks have had a chance to make up for their earlier stupid decision to follow oil much lower.

Yesterday was an example of their deciding to go in opposite directions, but it was an unfortunate decision for stocks.

Oil turned around nicely yesterday and stocks went the other way.

This morning it seems as if the irrational relationship is back, although just like yesterday, the futures reflect only the early birds and their ability to forecast any given 6 1/2 hours after the opening bell rings, is pretty weak.

This morning both oil and stocks are higher, as some were beginning to take note that the S&P 500 sunk below an important technical line yesterday.

What they didn’t mention is that it only went above that 50 day moving average a session or two earlier after a prolonged period below.

Perspective is pretty important sometimes and that perspective was totally ignored for the benefit of those not actually bothering to look and charts.

For those who believe in the infallible nature of charts, hitting the 50 day moving average from above is a bearish sign and hitting it from below on the climb higher is a very bullish signal.

Maybe I missed it, but I didn’t hear those chart bulls come out and sing the praises of their charts a few days ago.

That may be because there still may be some good reason for caution, rather than sending out the bullish call that was based on a technical factor.

Especially in hindsight when it’s clear just how quickly that technical factor can disappear.

Or re-appear, as it could today.

I’ll still be watching today and keeping an eye on all of this week’s possible trades, most of which were too strong yesterday to have considered an entry, as they went higher early in the day along with the market and never really gave anything back when the market did.

I wouldn’t mind either some weakness or stability in those positions today, just as I’d like the same for the market for the rest of the week.

That could be a tall order as the Employment Situation Report is scheduled and anything goes once that’s released.

For the most part, with the uncertainty of the reaction of traders to any kind of news, I think that I would rather not be very aggressive at putting any cash to work.

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Daily Market Update – February 29, 2016 (Close)

This week seemed to be starting like so many weeks of late, except that the less than effusive bad news around the world doesn’t seem to be taking hold here this morning.

Foreign stock markets were lower, as was oil.

While that was the case early this morning, the US stock market futures had turned around from their lows during the early trading in the session and were getting ready to start the day at the flat line.

Then a funny, or maybe not so funny thing happened.

Or didn’t happen.

Oil reversed itself and actually enrt on to finish the day 3% higher, but the US stock market didn’t follow and instead lost 0.8% on the day.

That’s something that might be noteworthy, but let’s hope not.

There’s not too much else of note this week other than the week ending Employment Situation Report and maybe some more gyrations for the price of oil, as some cautious bulls are coming out of hiding and predicting significant gains by the end of the year.

On the surface that would seem like good news, but I wonder if the market would actually feel that way if they started seeing some tangible increases in prices, not just for oil but also for those products that rely on oil.

That might result in more days like today. That’s something that I’ve been fretting about for a few weeks. That would be the worst of all worlds.

The market going lower following oil and then going lower as oil rises.

As with most market gains, I prefer that they come slowly and methodically, so I’m not really hoping for any kind of drastic move higher this week.

With a little money in hand I could per persuaded to use some of it to open new positions this week, but I’m going to remain cautious. 

Today may have been a good day to sit on the sidelines, seeing how the day really did deteriorate.

While the tenor of February has been very good for the last two weeks, just as last Friday’s GDP could have been a major mover in either direction, the same holds true for this week’s Employment Situation Report.

As has been the case of late, I would like to see the market move higher, but more so that I can get some more opportunity to get some calls sold on currently uncovered positions.

That has been a very, very slow and arduous process, but it does feel good each time something that has been sitting for far too long as an unproductive member of my portfolio actually does something worthwhile.

With lots of ex-dividend positions this week I don’t have quite the compelling need to make trades, but I wouldn’t run away from the opportunity either, particularly as there are no positions that could be potentially rolled over this week. 

Maybe tomorrow, but I think that my caution continues.

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Daily Market Update – February 29, 2016 (9:00 AM)

This week seems to be starting like so many weeks of late, except that the less than effusive bad news around the world doesn’t seem to be taking hold here this morning.

Foreign stock markets are lower, as is oil.

While that’s the case the US stock market futures have turned around from their lows during the early trading in the session and were getting ready to start the day at the flat line.

There’s not too much of note this week other than the week ending Employment Situation Report and maybe some more gyrations for the price of oil, as some cautious bulls are coming out of hiding and predicting significant gains by the end of the year.

On the surface that would seem like good news, but I wonder if the market would actually feel that way if they started seeing some tangible increases in prices, not just for oil but also for those products that rely on oil.

As with most gains, I prefer that they come slowly and methodically, so I’m not really hoping for any kind of drastic move higher this week.

With a little money in hand I could per persuaded to use some of it to open new positions this week, but I’m going to remain cautious.

While the tenor of February has been very good for the last two weeks, just as last Friday’s GDP could have been a major mover in either direction, the same holds true for this week’s Employment Situation Report.

As has been the case of late, I would like to see the market move higher, but more so that I can get some more opportunity to get some calls sold on currently uncovered positions.

That has been a very, very slow and arduous process, but it does feel good each time something that has been sitting for far too long as an unproductive member of my portfolio actually does something worthwhile.

With lots of ex-dividend positions this week I don’t have quite the compelling need to make trades, but I wouldn’t run away from the opportunity either, particularly as there are no positions that could be potentially rolled over this week. 

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Daily Market Update – February 29, 2016 (9:00 AM)

This week seems to be starting like so many weeks of late, except that the less than effusive bad news around the world doesn’t seem to be taking hold here this morning.

Foreign stock markets are lower, as is oil.

While that’s the case the US stock market futures have turned around from their lows during the early trading in the session and were getting ready to start the day at the flat line.

There’s not too much of note this week other than the week ending Employment Situation Report and maybe some more gyrations for the price of oil, as some cautious bulls are coming out of hiding and predicting significant gains by the end of the year.

On the surface that would seem like good news, but I wonder if the market would actually feel that way if they started seeing some tangible increases in prices, not just for oil but also for those products that rely on oil.

As with most gains, I prefer that they come slowly and methodically, so I’m not really hoping for any kind of drastic move higher this week.

With a little money in hand I could per persuaded to use some of it to open new positions this week, but I’m going to remain cautious.

While the tenor of February has been very good for the last two weeks, just as last Friday’s GDP could have been a major mover in either direction, the same holds true for this week’s Employment Situation Report.

As has been the case of late, I would like to see the market move higher, but more so that I can get some more opportunity to get some calls sold on currently uncovered positions.

That has been a very, very slow and arduous process, but it does feel good each time something that has been sitting for far too long as an unproductive member of my portfolio actually does something worthwhile.

With lots of ex-dividend positions this week I don’t have quite the compelling need to make trades, but I wouldn’t run away from the opportunity either, particularly as there are no positions that could be potentially rolled over this week. 

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Daily Market Update – February 26, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM tonight and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:   none

Rollovers:  none

Expirations:  none

The following were ex-dividend this week:  none

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  ANF (3/2 $0.20), BAC (3/2 $0.05), COH (3/2 $0.34), HAL (2/29 $0.18), HFC (3/2 $0.33), MOS (3/1 $0.28), WY (3/4 $0.31)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EST

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