Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – April 5, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday gave a tiny clue that maybe the dovish words of the previous week from the big boss may not be enough to sustain investor’s optimistic mood.

This week started off with a voting member of the FOMC coming off as being much more hawkish than Janet Yellen was last week.

The market didn’t like that, but it wasn’t fully revulsed.

Even falling oil didn’t grease the slide downward too much.

All in all, it was a fairly mild kind of loss.

This morning, however, that loss in the futures trading is more pronounced, maybe even more than it should be relative to oil’s early decline in its trading.

This week there isn’t very much of substance to warrant moving the markets, so it may end up being a battle of words, going from hawk to dove and maybe back again.

The market has had a history over the past few years of latching onto those words coming from various members of the Federal Reserve as if each one had the ultimate say on policy and future action.

Just as quickly as one Federal Reserve Governor would express and opinion and the market would follow suit, you could easily see an opposing opinion the very next day and the market again following suit.

So we’ll see what this week brings as only the earnings season, which begins in 2 weeks, may actually bring something of note into the equation.

I watched yesterday and as opposed to many days when I actually do float trades out there, I had none placed yesterday.

I had an uneasy feeling during most of the day expecting a further drop, even as some prices for positions in focus this week were beginning to look better and better.

But they still weren’t looking good enough.

This morning’s futures trading may make some of those look even better, so it may be a little bit harder to resist.

However, in the bigger picture, you do have to be aware that for the previous 6 weeks many stocks marched higher, without testing support or in some cases taking much of a rest.

This may be a time to take rest or to test support and I’m not certain I want to test either, a I think going forward we are much more likely to see those 5-10% market drops that were so rare, for about the previous 4 years.

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Daily Market Update – April 4, 2016 (Close)

This week could be an interesting one.

There’s not too much going on in terms of economic news other than Tuesday’s JOLTS release, but we may get to see just how important words really are.

This week there are lots of Federal Reserve Governors out there giving speeches and it will also be the week to get a closer glimpse at what was said, or at least what the tone of the previous FOMC Meeting may have been.

Lately there has been lots and lots of mixed messages being sent from members of the Federal Reserve and that had been confusing the stock market.

Last week, the market elected to go with Janet Yellen’s re-discovery of the words a dove might say, but this week there could be much more of the opposite kind, maybe even some coming from closet hawks, such as Loretta Mester.

The other thing that may be of interest is whether oil and stocks are finally going to break their relationship.

That would be nice, unless oil decides to start moving higher again.

As it would turn out, those thoughts this morning were more prescient than my thoughts usually turn out to be.

Eric Rosengren, the Boston Federal reserve President and a voting member of the FOMC came out with some hawkish comments, giving the impression that those rate hikes  were coming sooner than last week’s traders may have been led to believe.

On top of that, oil slid some more.

Still, stocks weren’t down very much considering what could have been.

With a few ex-dividend positions this week and a single position in range for a rollover and maybe even an assignment, despite having some income stream already for the week, I wouldn’t mind adding to it.

That was the same situation last week, but I ended up just being happy about selling some calls on uncovered positions, making that single rollover and collecting some dividends.

I would like to break out of the “no new positions opened” funk of 2016, but given the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the first quarter, it will be interesting to see how the second quarter proceeds.

We got off to a good start after the market decided that the Employment Situation Report news wasn’t as bad as initially believed, but there’s really nothing for the next two weeks to give any confidence about anything.

More dovish words might help, or maybe some softness in the economy would help, for those still equating bad with good.

What I’ll be looking for really begins in 2 weeks, as earnings season starts again.

It has been a long time since true earnings and not those artificially inflated by stock buybacks did anything to move markets forward.

At some point, there has to be some good news on both the top and bottom lines as more and more people are heading back to work, or even beginning once again to look for a job.

While I don’t mind spending money this week, I won’t be profligate, for certain and am likely to want to look at a weekly play, if only to have a better chance to recycle the money the following week.

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Daily Market Update – April 4, 2016 (7:30 AM)

This week could be an interesting one.

There’s not too much going on in terms of economic news other than Tuesday’s JOLTS release, but we may get to see just how important words really are.

This week there are lots of Federal Reserve Governors out there giving speeches and it will also be the week to get a closer glimpse at what was said, or at least what the tone of the previous FOMC Meeting may have been.

Lately there has been lots and lots of mixed messages being sent from members of the Federal Reserve and that had been confusing the stock market.

Last week, the market elected to go with Janet Yellen’s re-discovery of the words a dove might say, but this week there could be much more of the opposite kind, maybe even some coming from closet hawks, such as Loretta Mester.

The other thing that may be of interest is whether oil and stocks are finally going to break their relationship.

That would be nice, unless oil decides to start moving higher again.

With a few ex-dividend positions this week and a single position in range for a rollover and maybe even an assignment, despite having some income stream already for the week, I wouldn’t mind adding to it.

That was the same situation last week, but I ended up just being happy about selling some calls on uncovered positions, making that single rollover and collecting some dividends.

I would like to break out of the “no new positions opened” funk of 2016, but given the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the first quarter, it will be interesting to see how the second quarter proceeds.

We got off to a good start after the market decided that the Employment Situation Report news wasn’t as bad as initially believed, but there’s really nothing for the next two weeks to give any confidence about anything.

More dovish words might help, or maybe some softness in the economy would help, for those still equating bad with good.

What I’ll be looking for really begins in 2 weeks, as earnings season starts again.

It has been a long time since true earnings and not those artificially inflated by stock buybacks did anything to move markets forward.

At some point, there has to be some good news on both the top and bottom lines as more and more people are heading back to work, or even beginning once again to look for a job.

While I don’t mind spending money this week, I won’t be profligate, for certain and am likely to want to look at a weekly play, if only to have a better chance to recycle the money the following week.

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MONDAY:   This week we’ll see how long Yellen’s dovishness carries the market and whether oil will let go of its grip on the market, as it’s an otherwise quiet week except for the release of FOMC Minutes and lots of Federal Reserve Governors voicing their opinions

TUESDAY:  Some hawkish words from an FOMC voting member and declining oil prices may be starting to offset last week’s optimism. The futures are continuing and accelerating that trend this morning. There are more Federal Reserve members to speak this week, so it could bounce back and forth from their mouths to our bottom lines.

WEDNESDAY: Oil and stocks went their own way yesterday, but both higher as the morning is setting up. Otherwise, there’s no real news to take either of those markets in one way or another.

THURSDAY:  What yesterday’s surge in oil gave to the markets, this morning’s futures are taking away. There’s no real reason behind the morning’s early move, but that has been the story for all of 2016, especially once oil is taken out of the picture

FRIDAY:.  Yesterday oil gave back half of their previous day’s gains and stocks gave all of theirs, and more, back. This morning, both are pointing higher to end the week.







Daily Market Update – April 1, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM tonight and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:   none

Rollovers:   M

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this past week:  CY (3/29 $0.11), DOW (3/39 $0.46), EMC (3/30 $0.12)

The following are ex-dividend next week:   CSCO (4/4 $0.26),  GPS (4/4 $0.23), WFM (4/6 $0.13)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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