Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – April 7, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday we were back to the usual.

It was oil holding front court again and this time it was 5% higher.

The market followed nicely, although maybe not as enthusiastically as it had in the previous 7 weeks.

The gain yesterday, while nice, also seemed subdued when you consider the lack of any really strong hawkish tones coming out of the release of the previous month’s FOMC minutes.

All in all, it wasn’t that impressive of a gain yesterday and gave no reason for anyone to think that it might be the start of a next leg higher.

This morning’s futures were setting up to erase most of yesterday’s gains, even as oil was beginning the morning unchanged.

So that catalyst for a move wasn’t in the equation yet for today and futures traders didn’t seem to see anything substantive this week to get terribly excited about.

That definitely sums it up for me.

That also summed it up for the market today, as oil did turn lower and stocks did give up the previous day’s gains and more.

At least there was an opportunity to rollover the one expiring position. At this point, I think that i would rather be a serial rollover trader than being faced with assignment.

That way, even stock mediocrity can end up with great returns and without the added challenge of then having to find replacement sources of income.

At this point, I would have been happy to see this week come to an end and perhaps just get us a little bit closer to another earnings season.

After today, next week and the beginning of earnings season can’t come soon enough.

At some point, whatever the economy is doing, it has to be reflected in earnings and revenues.

If their is some real growth going on out of everyone’s view, as the FOMC seemed to be inferring when it raised rates in 2015 and laid out an expectation for a series of small increases in 2016, maybe first word will come from banks, retailers and others that are central to the consumer economy.

But for now, there are just no signs to suggest that to be the case.

I hope that is actually the case and maybe the market will focus on fundamentals and guidance, which has been long overdue.

With just a day remaining, there’s now even less chance of me opening a new position this week. With that rollover already having been accomplished, i have no great aspirations for tomorrow, but definitely wouldn’t say no to a day that erases today’s poor performance.

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Daily Market Update – April 7, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday we were back to the usual.

It was oil holding front court again and this time it was 5% higher.

The market followed nicely, although maybe not as enthusiastically as it had in the previous 7 weeks.

The gain yesterday, while nice, also seemed subdued when you consider the lack of any really strong hawkish tones coming out of the release of the previous month’s FOMC minutes.

All in all, it wasn’t that impressive of a gain yesterday and gave no reason for anyone to think that it might be the start of a next leg higher.

This morning’s futures are setting up to erase most of yesterday’s gains, even as oil is beginning the morning unchanged.

So that catalyst for a move isn’t in the equation yet for today, but futures traders may see nothing substantive this week to get terribly excited about.

That definitely sums it up for me.

At this point, I would be happy to see this week come to an end and perhaps just get us a little bit closer to another earnings season.

At some point, whatever the economy is doing, it has to be reflected in earnings and revenues.

If their is some real growth going on out of everyone’s view, as the FOMC seemed to be inferring when it raised rates in 2015 and laid out an expectation for a series of small increases in 2016, maybe first word will come from banks, retailers and others that are central to the consumer economy.

But for now, there are just no signs to suggest that to be the case.

I hope that is actually the case and maybe the market will focus on fundamentals and guidance, which has been long overdue.

With just 2 days remaining, there’s not much chance of me opening a new position this week, but I hope that yesterday’s strength in oil doesn’t get wasted, as I’d like to see an assignment or rollover of the solitary position for the week.

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Daily Market Update – April 6, 2016 (Close)

Monday gave a tiny clue that maybe the dovish words of the previous week from the big boss may not be enough to sustain investor’s optimistic mood.

Yesterday was some more confirmation of that and today there may be even more.

That’s because there are 2 Federal Reserve Governors speaking today, one of whom we haven’t heard from very much, but there is some speculation that she’s more hawkish than she is dovish.

But maybe more importantly, sandwiched between those two speeches, will be the release of the recent FOMC minutes.

In that release there may have been some possibility of a glimpse as to just how much dissension there may be on the FOMC and could cast Yellen’s dovishness last week into a different light.

Even as prices started looking more attractive yesterday, I still could find no compelling reason to part with any money.

I had a little bit of uneasiness on Monday and even with futures up slightly this morning, there wasn’t very much reason to think that there’s anything right around the corner to let stocks recapture their performance of the final 6 weeks of the first quarter of 2016.

Instead, I think there’s plenty of reason to believe that we’re now at the beginning of a new pattern of ups and downs.

Rather than the 5% moves every 3 months or so for 2012 through most of 2015, we may be back to seeing more regular 10% moves.

If the final quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 are any indication, there should be lots more of those large moves that had been unseen for years.

I didn’t expect to be doing very much today, although with a single position up for expiration, I did consider rolling it over if it gets to a reasonable spread to make it worthwhile.

As the market eventually found some footing with oil up 5% and the FOMC minutes not divulging any great hawkish sentiment, I just watched. Sometimes it’s alright just to go for the ride.

Ultimately, I’m even ready to write next week off and am more excited about what may come down the path the following week as earnings season begins again.

It will be very interesting to see how the financials lead off the new earnings season and their guidance, particularly as interest rates head exactly in the opposite direction of where just about everyone had predicted.

It’s so hard to imagine that those rates could possibly stay this low, but then again, no one thought that oil would go as low as it did and stay there for as long as it has.

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Daily Market Update – April 6, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Monday gave a tiny clue that maybe the dovish words of the previous week from the big boss may not be enough to sustain investor’s optimistic mood.

Yesterday was some more confirmation of that and today there may be even more.

That’s because there are 2 Federal Reserve Governors speaking today, one of whom we haven’t heard from very much, but there is some speculation that she’s more hawkish than she is dovish.

But maybe more importantly, sandwiched between those two speeches, will be the release of the recent FOMC minutes.

In that release may be some glimpse as to just how much dissension there may be on the FOMC and could cast Yellen’s dovishness last week into a different light.

Even as prices started looking more attractive yesterday, I still could find no compelling reason to part with any money.

I had a little bit of uneasiness on Monday and even with futures up slightly this morning, there isn’t very much reason to think that there’s anything right around the corner to let stocks recapture their performance of the final 6 weeks of the first quarter of 2016.

Instead, I think there’s plenty of reason to believe that we’re now at the beginning of a new pattern of ups and downs.

Rather than the 5% moves every 3 months or so for 2012 through most of 2015, we may be back to seeing more regular 10% moves.

If the final quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 are any indication, there should be lots more of those large moves that had been unseen for years.

I don’t expect to be doing very much today, although with a single position up for expiration, I may consider rolling it over if it gets to a reasonable spread to make it worthwhile.

Ultimately, I’m even ready to write next week off and am more excited about what may come down the path the following week as earnings season begins again.

It will be very interesting to see how the financials lead off the new earnings season and their guidance, particularly as interest rates head exactly in the opposite direction of where just about everyone had predicted.

It’s so hard to imagine that those rates could possibly stay this low, but then again, no one thought that oil would go as low as it did and stay there for as long as it has.

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Daily Market Update – April 5, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday gave a tiny clue that maybe the dovish words of the previous week from the big boss may not be enough to sustain investor’s optimistic mood.

This week started off with a voting member of the FOMC coming off as being much more hawkish than Janet Yellen was last week.

The market didn’t like that, but it wasn’t fully revulsed.

Even falling oil didn’t grease the slide downward too much.

All in all, it was a fairly mild kind of loss.

This morning, however, that loss in the futures trading was more pronounced, maybe even more than it should be relative to oil’s early decline in its trading.

This week there isn’t very much of substance to warrant moving the markets, so it may end up being a battle of words, going from hawk to dove and maybe back again.

The market has had a history over the past few years of latching onto those words coming from various members of the Federal Reserve as if each one had the ultimate say on policy and future action.

Just as quickly as one Federal Reserve Governor would express and opinion and the market would follow suit, you could easily see an opposing opinion the very next day and the market again following suit.

So we’ll see what this week brings as only the earnings season, which begins in 2 weeks, may actually bring something of note into the equation.

I watched yesterday and as opposed to many days when I actually do float trades out there, I had none placed yesterday and I ended up placing none today, either.

I had an uneasy feeling during most of yesrerday expecting a further drop, even as some prices for positions in focus this week were beginning to look better and better.

But they still weren’t looking good enough.

This morning’s futures trading made some of those look even better, so it was understandably a little bit harder to resist as this morning got started.

But it was still pretty easy to resist.

Especially when taking in the bigger picture. When you do that you do have to be aware that for the previous 6 weeks many stocks marched higher, without testing support or in some cases taking much of a rest.

This may be a time to take rest or to test support and I’m not certain I want to test either, a I think going forward we are much more likely to see those 5-10% market drops that were so rare, for about the previous 4 years.

With that in mind, after today’s loss the S&P 500 is now up 0.07% on the year

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