Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – April 25, 2016 (Close)

There’s so much going on this week, that it may only make sense that the market might start the week taking a break to get things underway.

In addition to lots and lots of systemically important earnings reports during the course of the week, there is an FOMC Statement release and the GDP release the following day.

Add to that the continuing creep higher of oil and commodities and there shouldn’t be too much of a shortage of events that could catalyze movements in either direction.

What we know so far from earnings is that it’s alright to have mediocre numbers, as long as those mediocre numbers at least had the decency to meet already lowered expectations.

If there were even worse than what was expected or the company continued to guide lower for the next quarter, there was a whole world of hurt awaiting.

Lots of stocks reporting earnings fell into that latter category last week and there were some really big movers.

What there wasn’t much of were really big movers to the upside, even as the market did finish higher for the week.

This week I do have some cash and am willing to dip into the smaller cash reserve than I would like to have.

With 3 ex-dividend positions and one contract expiring this week there is already some income, but as is usually the case, I’d like more.

There are some uncovered positions that may be ready to finally find some cover. For those, I’m not necessarily looking to make a killing, even as their holding periods may have been far too long.

Mostly, I just want to either add to my cash reserve or have some other opportunity to generate regular income from dead money.

I did get a small chance to do that today, happily selling calls on those Seagate Technology puts that were assigned last Friday. With its earnings coming up this week and a need to hold one’s breath over the dividend announcement, I elected to go out a few weeks, just in case the market reacted poorly to whatever news may come its way.

While doing so and looking for other opportunities to nake money from dead positions, I’d at least like it to be the case that the position, once closed lost only in terms of opportunity.

While even that is too much, it’s better than losing in the absolute.

With some big events for the week occurring after we pass the mid-way mark, I’m not too keen on putting more at risk, but some of the earnings related trades have some appeal.

There’s not too much reason, for example, to think that Facebook is going to be even more adversely impacted by the FOMC Statement or the GDP.

You and I might be adversely impacted, and maybe advertisers will cut back a little, but is Twitter or Facebook really that sensitive to the kinds of events that investors try to game?

We’ll findf out, although today oil was once again the reason markets went anywhere, whether related to oil or not.

So if you’re still looking for reason and logic, you may need to go elsewhere.

Daily Market Update – April 25, 2016 (9:00 AM)

There’s so much going on this week, that it may only make sense that the market may be taking a break to get things underway.

In addition to lots and lots of systemically important earnings reports during the course of the week, there is an FOMC Statement release and the GDP release the following day.

Add to that the continuing creep higher of oil and commodities and there shouldn’t be too much of a shortage of events that could catalyze movements in either direction.

What we know so far from earnings is that it’s alright to have mediocre numbers, as long as those mediocre numbers at least had the decency to meet already lowered expectations.

If there were even worse than what was expected or the company continued to guide lower for the next quarter, there was a whole world of hurt awaiting.

Lots of stocks reporting earnings fell into that latter category last week and there were some really big movers.

What there wasn’t much of were really big movers to the upside, even as the market did finish higher for the week.

This week I do have some cash and am willing to dip into the smaller cash reserve than I would like to have.

With 3 ex-dividend positions and one contract expiring this week there is already some income, but as is usually the case, I’d like more.

There are some uncovered positions that may be ready to finally find some cover. For those, I’m not necessarily looking to make a killing, even as their holding periods may have been far too long.

Mostly, I just want to either add to my cash reserve or have some other opportunity to generate regular income from dead money.

While doing so, I’d at least like it to be the case that the position, once closed lost only in terms of opportunity.

While even that is too much, it’s better than losing in the absolute.

With some big events for the week occurring after we pass the mid-way mark, I’m not too keen on putting more at risk, but some of the earnings related trades have some appeal.

There’s not too much reason, for example, to think that Facebook is going to be even more adversely impacted by the FOMC Statement or the GDP.

You and I might be adversely impacted, and maybe advertisers will cut back a little, but is Twitter or Facebook really that sensitive to the kinds of events that investors try to game?

Daily Market Update – April 22, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Weekend Update will be posted by 10 PM tonight and the Week in Review will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: M

Expirations: STX puts**

**I may try to roll STX puts over, if the ex-dividend date is confirmed before today’s close. It is possible that the ex-dividend date could be as early as next week, in which case, I’d rather hold shares and potentially sell calls.

The following were ex-dividend this week:  FAST (4/22 $0.30)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  F (2/27 $0.15), MS (2/27 $0.15), KMI (2/28 $0.125)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT.

Daily Market Update – April 21, 2016 (Close)

Markets didn’t exactly march higher yesterday, but when you put the last week together, even those relatively small gains add to an impressive move higher.

The kind of move that can withstand the kind of move seen today.

Even as earnings haven’t exactly been robust, no one is really doing too much complaining as the results are in line and perhaps even better than anyone’s expectations had been.

There is a real strategy to the idea of under-promising and then living up to lowered expectations.

The problem, though, is that markets usually don’t like the news of gloomy guidance when it’s originally offered and it then becomes a whole quarter until you can try to capitalize on those lowered expectations.

So far, this quarter, even as the results are just really beginning to come through, the theme is intact.

However, what today’s trading showed and what today’s aftermarket trading showed, is that traders really don’t want another quarter with disappointing guidance.

The stocks that have done just that have fallen mightily and tomorrow could be interesting if the sell off in individual earnings related names continues.

As the market continued to move higher, even by small bits and pieces over the past few days, we had come within about 1.5% of an all time closing high on the S&P 500. That got pushed by a little today.

That’s still not too shabby, especially when you consider that there really hasn’t been an iota of good news.

The economy isn’t strong enough to warrant an increase in interest rates and oil is getting more expensive.

Oil, is actually no about 75% higher than its low from earlier in the year, yet somehow markets have taken that as being good news, even as there’s no evidence that the increase in oil price is due to increasing demand.

This morning may be ready to follow that trend, although as the futures are getting ready to give way to the market’s open, they are as flat as can be.

With a new purchase this week and a couple of positions set to expire, I would still be open to opening a new position, but that’s probably not going to be too likely.

Like last week, I wouldn’t mind being able to roll over even positions that may be in line to be assigned, if the rollover premium is 1% or more.

Last week I didn’t get to do that, instead taking the assignment, but I’m still at the stage where I’d prefer to make money from existing positions rather than from laying out or recycling cash.

We’ll see what tomorrow will now hold as the evening has been one earnings and guidance disappointment after another

Daily Market Update – April 21, 2016 (9:00 AM)

Markets didn’t exactly march higher yesterday, but when you put the last week together, even those relatively small gains add to an impressive move higher.

Even as earnings haven’t exactly been robust, no one is really doing too much complaining as the results are in line and perhaps even better than anyone’s expectations had been.

There is a real strategy to the idea of under-promising and then living up to lowered expectations.

The problem, though, is that markets usually don’t like the news of gloomy guidance when it’s originally offered and it then becomes a whole quarter until you can try to capitalize on those lowered expectations.

So far, this quarter, even as the results are just really beginning to come through, the theme is intact.

As the market continues to move higher, even by small bits and pieces over the past few days, we are now within about 1.5% of an all time closing high on the S&P 500.

That’s not too shabby, especially when you consider that there really hasn’t been an iota of good news.

The economy isn’t strong enough to warrant an increase in interest rates and oil is getting more expensive.

Oil, is actually no about 75% higher than its low from earlier in the year, yet somehow markets have taken that as being good news, even as there’s no evidence that the increase in oil price is due to increasing demand.

This morning may be ready to follow that trend, although as the futures are getting ready to give way to the market’s open, they are as flat as can be.

With a new purchase this week and a couple of positions set to expire, I would still be open to opening a new position, but that’s probably not going to be too likely.

Like last week, I wouldn’t mind being able to roll over even positions that may be in line to be assigned, if the rollover premium is 1% or more.

Last week I didn’t get to do that, instead taking the assignment, but I’m still at the stage where I’d prefer to make money from existing positions rather than from laying out or recycling cash.

We’ll see what today and tomorrow will hold.