Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – May 10, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was one of those days that the market was pretty undecided about which direction to take, but to its credit it didn’t follow oil in its course reversal.

Futures had started strongly yesterday, but were eroding even as oil was doing well.

When oil strongly reversed course, the expectation might have been that stocks would have followed, but they didn’t.

This morning’s futures have both oil and stocks heading in the same direction, with the DJIA futures in triple digit gain territory.

With some preliminary retail data last week and some early earnings already reported this week, it looks as if retailers may not have much in the way of good news.

While we’ve gotten used to a year’s worth of disappointments from The Gap, hearing the same from The Limited caught just about everybody by surprise.

This week and next the major national retailers report earnings and what is likely to be key is what kind of optimism or pessimism they’re going to express for the rest of 2016.

The expectations are already low, but there isn’t likely to be any reward for trying to lengthen out the period of low expectations.

So far, this earnings season has punished companies that may have been lowered expectations, but still cast a negative tone on their guidance.

With a single new purchase yesterday, I’m still open to the possibility of more this week, but am still looking forward to seeing the end of the May 2016 option cycle and having a chance to move forward.

With so few weekly options in hand and more of them with monthly or beyond expirations, the trading has slowed down so much. For some of those positions I was just happy to get any kind of opportunity to sell a contract and I would still take some more of those opportunities while trying to wait out some precipitous declines.

With the market pointing nicely higher this morning, i would gladly give up some opportunity to add new positions in exchange for being able to sell some calls on uncovered positions, or at least get the chance to either roll over the single expiring position this week.

Those are just my own lowered expectations.

Daily Market Update – May 9, 2016 (Close)

There really isn’t too much in the way of economic news this week, but some of the important components of the GDP will be releasing their earnings reports this week and next.

With GDP estimated to be composed nearly 70% of consumer spending, it may be a big deal when the major national retailers begin to report their earnings.

Last week’s monthly sales data from The Limited cast a pall on retailers and many are talking about rising inventories and big sales as the winter was coming to its close.

With expectations already fairly low, it seems that people are looking for further disappointment.

The one thing that we have seen this earnings season is that when those lowered expectations aren’t met or when continued weak guidance is given, there isn’t a lot of forgiveness offered.

In the meantime, the futures trading in oil was higher, but stocks were seeing their early gains erode as the opening bell was approaching. 

In a very positive note, even as the DJIA fell by 35 points and the S&P 500 actually added a point, they both did so while oil was completely turning around from its morning trading to see it close the day much, much lower.

But stocks didn’t follow.

With disappointing employment numbers and increasing oil prices, it’s hard to see where the good news is going to come from or where the FOMC is going to draw its data to warrant their acting on another interest rate increase.

With absolutely no trades last week, I at least had some dividends to fall back upon.

That’s not the case this week, so I was anxious to make some trades once the session got underway and, as expected, I went after volatility and liquidity, trying to make up for lack of quantity of trading.

At the moment, I would just like this monthly option cycle to come to an end, as I do have some expiring positions next week and that may give an opportunity to at least do something to generate some income., even as that stock took some punishment before the day was over.

Daily Market Update – May 9, 2016 (9:00 AM)

There really isn’t too much in the way of economic news this week, but some of the important components of the GDP will be releasing their earnings reports this week and next.

With GDP estimated to be composed nearly 70% of consumer spending, it may be a big deal when the major national retailers begin to report their earnings.

Last week’s monthly sales data from The Limited cast a pall on retailers and many are talking about rising inventories and gig sales as the winter was coming to its close.

With expectations already fairly low, it seems that people are looking for further disappointment.

The one thing that we have seen this earnings season is that when those lowered expectations aren’t met or when continued weak guidance is given, there isn’t a lot of forgiveness offered.

In the meantime, the futures trading in oil was higher, but stocks were seeing their early gains erode as the opening bell was approaching.

With disappointing employment numbers and increasing oil prices, it’s hard to see where the good news is going to come from or where the FOMC is going to draw its data to warrant their acting on another interest rate increase.

With absolutely no trades last week, I at least had some dividends to fall back upon.

That’s not the case this week, so I may be anxious to make some trades once the session gets underway and I’m likely going to go after volatility and liquidity, trying to make up for lack of quantity.

At the moment, I would just like this monthly option cycle to come to an end, as I do have some expiring positions next week and that may give an opportunity to at least do something to generate some income.

Right now I don’t ask for much, but any kind of a trade would be very welcome.

Daily Market Update – May 6, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday:

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:   none

Rollovers:   none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:   BP (5/4 $0.595), INTC (5/4 $0.26), STX (5/6 $0.63)

The following are ex-dividend next week:   none

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

Daily Market Update – May 5, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was another of those weak days that have been happening lately.

It looked as if oil was leading the way lower, but when ADP released some disappointing numbers, there was no real change.

It was, as I thought heading into that report and then heading into Friday’s Employment Situation Report, that no one really knows what to think and do in the event of either good news or bad news.

As some are beginning to question whether the FOMC is really driven by data, there is more reason for uncertainty.

It’s comforting to know that there are rules in place, even if you can’t understand the rules.

It’s a little more unsettling when there may be the appearance of arbitrariness.

For some, that explains the interest rate hike executed toward the end of 2015 and may be the basis for any other increase in 2016.

Yesterday’s ADP didn’t seem like very good news and with oil prices rising you do have to wonder where the spending will come from that will push a consumer led economy forward.

I wonder that.

Futures were sharply higher in the early part of the session as oil was much higher. However, as the session wore on, albeit still early in the session, those stock gains were getting smaller and smaller.

The triple digit gain in the DJIA futures had been cut in half while oil and precious metals were still climbing.

As the day wore on that gain disappeared in its entirety and then finally eked out a very small gain on the DJIA, while losing elsewhere.

With now only 1 days remaining in the week, it looks like this will be another that’s been seen all too often in 2016 for me.

No trades.

Luckily there were 3 ex-dividend positions as a source of cash, but that’s not really enough.

Next week there aren’t any on schedule, yet.

There just didn’t appear to be any really good entry opportunity this week and as we get ready to begin trading on Thursday, so far I’m glad that i didn’t go after anything.

It certainly would have been nice to have bought something, or even better to have sold calls on an existing positions, but the dynamic has been very week to this point.

Next week may be a bit more interesting as retailers start telling their stories. So far, there’s no reason to believe it will be any good, as today the retailers took a big blow.

This week was really just one boring story after another. Hopefully that will be different in just a few days, but at this point, I’d just like to see the May 2016 option cycle come to a close.

That’s only because I have a few positions in play and expiring at the end of the cycle and those could offer the only chances to get something meaningful done over the next 2 weeks.