Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – June 13, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The week looks like it may get off to a weaker start as we await Wednesday’s FOMC Statement release.

There’s not likely to be any movement on interest rates coming out of that meeting, although lots of attention is also paid to any slight nuances that may come from changed wording.

More importantly, though, may be the tone taken by Chairman Yellen during her press conference later on Wednesday afternoon.

While we await those events, the Asian markets were down 3% overnight and oil is down again this morning, as it had difficulty with the $50 level, just as the DJIA and S&P 500 had difficulty with the 18000 and 2100 levels, respectively.

WIth a few positions set to expire this week, I just hope to be able to put them to work if they’re not assigned.

For some of those positions that seems unlikely, so it may be back to looking at some longer term time frames in an effort to buy time and get paid for doing so.

In the event that Wednesday becomes a non-event, oil may again become prominent in our markets and if the association continues, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see oil take a break, even as summer demand may be increasing.

In the meantime, with each passing day over the next week or so, there can also be lots more attention being paid to Great Britain’s upcoming vote on its EU membership.

There’s lots of hyperbole on that topic and it’s anyone’s guess what that might due to international markets and our own.

With just a little bit of discretionary cash and some uncertainty this week, I’m not entirely convinced that I’ll be opening any new positions this week, although I still might like to add an oil position, despite being over-invested in that sector.

That may be a place, that even if wrong about the near term direction of its movement, the option premium is so large, and the option market generally so liquid, that there may not be too much difficulty riding out any short term storm.

Otherwise, this may be another week of being a passive bystander and maybe just hoping that asset value climbs as the market tries to figure out what is really important.

Daily Market Update – June 10, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today”

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:   none

Expirations:  HFC

The following were ex-dividend this week:   HPQ (6/6 $0.12),KSS (6/6 $0.50), NEM (6/7 $0.025), GM (6/8 $0.38), WY (6/8 $0.31), BBY (6/10 $0.28)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  BBBY (6/15 $0.125)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made by 3:30 PM EDT

Daily Market Update – June 9, 2016 (Close)

After 3 consecutive days higher, no doubt inspired by the lack of any clarity from Janet Yellen on Monday, the market was getting ready for a rest this morning and it stayed that way throughout the day, ending a 3 day winning streak.

As it did, the S&P 500 still sits only about 1% away from its all time closing high.

With the greatest likelihood that there will be no interest rate increase being announced next week and investors making it clear that they prefer that to be the case, even as they give some sign of accepting that increase, there isn’t much to hold the market back.

Except of course for that pesky thing that so many algorithms and traders use.

Charts.

Just as the 18000 level on the DJIA has been a barrier, so too is the 2137 level on the S&P 500.

People talk about triple tops and the bearish indicator that is, but after some failed attempts the DJIA did get beyond its 18000 level, although it has yet to do so convincingly. The same considerations lies ahead for the S&P 500.

With little economic news in the very near term, all we really have ahead is the FOMC meeting next week and then the usual events in the coming month of July.

At this point most everyone wants to see whether last week’s Employment Situation Report was simply an aberration and signifying nothing.

You can bet that if the next one, or even the GDP comes in big, there will be a big reaction.

It may still be a mystery, though, how traders would react.

With such bad news last week and the rumblings of that kind of a number being associated with a recession, some may find a strong higher number to be a major disappointment.

Who knows?

While I’m not trading, I am happy to see asset values climb, particularly as there is a rebound in oil and commodities.

Those led me down and now are leading me higher, but I wouldn’t mind getting out of some of those positions at this point and looking for a re-entry opportunity.

Otherwise, the week hinges on a sole position set to expire and hoping that it can still be rolled over and milking it for every last bit of premium until its own expiration.

With the Baker-Hughes Rig Count coming out at 1 PM tomorrow and with that single expiring position still being within range of both rollover and assignment, and maybe even expiration, I might be inclined to not wait to have the rig count take me out for the count.

Ultimately those premiums do add up, so I wouldn’t mind adding some more, but I would still much rather be actively exploring and opening new positions.

Still, money is money.

Daily Market Update – June 9, 2016 (7:30 AM)

After 3 consecutive days higher, no doubt inspired by the lack of any clarity from Janet Yellen on Monday, the market may be getting ready for a rest this morning.

As it does, the S&P 500 sits only about 1% away from its all time closing high.

Actually, just a shade less than 1%.

With the greatest likelihood that there will be no interest rate increase being announced next week and investors making it clear that they prefer that to be the case, even as they give some sign of accepting that increase, there isn’t much to hold the market back.

Except of course for that pesky thing that so many algorithms and traders use.

Charts.

Just as the 18000 level on the DJIA has been a barrier, so too is the 2137 level on the S&P 500.

People talk about triple tops and the bearish indicator that is, but after some failed attempts the DJIA did get beyond its 18000 level, although it has yet to do so convincingly. The same considerations lies ahead for the S&P 500.

With little economic news in the very near term, all we really have ahead is the FOMC meeting next week and then the usual events in the coming month of July.

At this point most everyone wants to see whether last week’s Employment Situation Report was simply an aberration and signifying nothing.

You can bet that if the next one, or even the GDP comes in big, there will be a big reaction.

It may still be a mystery, though, how traders would react.

With such bad news last week and the rumblings of that kind of a number being associated with a recession, some may find a strong higher number to be a major disappointment.

Who knows?

While I’m not trading, I am happy to see asset values climb, particularly as there is a rebound in oil and commodities.

Those led me down and now are leading me higher, but I wouldn’t mind getting out of some of those positions at this point and looking for a re-entry opportunity.

Otherwise, the week hinges on a sole position set to expire and hoping that it can still be rolled over and milking it for every last bit of premium until its own expiration.

Ultimately, those do add up, but I would still much rather be actively exploring and opening new positions.

Still, money is money.

Daily Market Update – June 8, 2016 (Close)

On Monday, Janet Yellen spoke and the market listened.

They tried listening a little bit more yesterday, but the words may have gotten too faint, especially by the final hour.

This morning, if looking to put a positive spin on things, the market wasn’t doing what if often has in the past few years.

It didn’t just reflexively go in the opposite direction. At least not yet.

This morning the futures were flat after having given up some decent gains yesterday, but when it’s all said and done, we were still within 1% of the all time high on the S&P 500.

By the closing bell today, we were even closer.

Granted, the level is still being sustained by a narrow foundation, but years from now all that anyone will know is what the level happens to be. Years after the fact, no one ever looks at the underlying causes of where the market stands unless there is some large move.

What can be said with some certainty is that not much is going on and maybe what we thought might be going on next week, now won’t happen.

Following last week’s Employment Situation Report there are now even those saying that a recession is possible.

The odds of that, according to JP Morgan economists of occurring in the next 12 months, is now considered larger than was the likelihood of an interest rate hike in June, just a week ago.

Maybe Yellen is right that we shouldn’t put too much emphasis on a single data point. After all, we could just as easily get big revisions next month or the month after, but that’s not how the universe of traders works. They focus on only the latest number and rarely look at the big picture. If one number takes you in one direction today and does so with conviction, no one should be surprised if the following data another conflicting number takes traders in a totally different direction.

Reverse the order of events and the outcomes are reversed as well, even as the net change may not be.

The individual investor is left hoping to be lucky, if deciding to capitalize on some economic news.

With the week now past the halfway point, it may simply end up as another week with little to nothing to show for it, in terms of active trading.

While no one expects any FOMC action next week, their words may still carry clout, so it may be difficult to commit in any meaningful way next week, either.

As far as that goes, if this week and next add to the previous week and just see asset values add to their levels while accumulating some dividends, I guess I can’t really complain.

But if I’m not trading, sooner or later someone is going to expect me to actually do something around the house and I can’t let that happen.