Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – June 15, 2016 (8:00 AM)

Yesterday ended much better than it had been looking earlier in the day.

With a reasonably strong loss on Monday, had the losses continued to that degree on Tuesday, there would have been some good chance of getting some kind of relief rally on Wednesday, almost regardless of what would have been contained in the FOMC Statement release.

With some early morning strength, almost enough to offset yesterday’s loss, that leaves markets easily going in either direction at 2 PM and maybe even again afterward, as Janet Yellen holds her press conference.

The expectation seems to be that there may be more dove than hawk today both from the statement itself and then during the press conference.

Unless a real shocker comes and interest rates are raised, there’s not too much reason for the market to behave badly.

That is, unless another bombshell hits, such as any mention of the word “recession.”

That latter bombshell seems very unlikely, but it’s the unlikely that gets people’s attention and flames fears or greed.

For today, I would just like to see something that helps the market move higher.

There’s not much chance of me spending any money prior to the FOMC and not even likely until after the press conference.

At this point, I’d just like to see this week come to an end and get the July 2016 option cycle going.

Daily Market Update – June 14, 2016 (Close)

The week looked like it may get off to a weaker start as we awaited Wednesday’s FOMC Statement release.

What wasn’t totally expected was just how weak it would get as the market fell back in line with the price of oil, something it hadn’t really done in the past 2 weeks.

There was also the pressure of very weak global markets and the strength of Treasury Notes, but the connection to oil was inescapable yesterday.

The market was sharply lower, then positive and then finished the day sharply lower.

All of that was in perfect concert with oil’s moves.

Today, in the futures trading, oil was again weak, but the market wasn’t as low as it could be.

For a while it looked as if today might end up being just as weak or even weaker than on Monday, but markets did rally somewhat to just end the day as a mediocre one and not one with anything memorable.

Maybe there was a little more focus on interest rates, but we really won’t get any news until tomorrow.

After that event and Janet Yellen’s press conference, attention can then turn to Great Britain and its vote on whether to remain part of the European Union.

That of course will be quickly forgotten as we then move onto something else, like maybe the upcoming Employment Situation Report and how upward revisions could lead to something substantive coming from July’s FOMC meeting.

But there’s still the rest of this week to deal with.

I added more oil in the hopes of continuing to take advantage of those steep premiums.

Even if the timing proves to be wrong, those premiums make it easier to wait until the timing is no longer an issue.

I don’t think that I’ll be spending any more money this week, but you never know.

I’d be very happy to simply generate some rollover income for the week and as with yesterday’s rollover of a deep in the money position, right now, I’d rather take the premiums than take assignment, even as that would add to cash reserves.

Otherwise, there’s probably not much to watch today and maybe even less to do.

Unless there are some big surprises tomorrow, maybe even if only in the words used to describe the economy, there isn’t much reason for any large moves, although reason is usually not necessary.

Tomorrow may be another day for stocks to try and overcome some resistance, if the news is interpreted as being good.

I think that I will just be a bystander.

Daily Market Update – June 14, 2016 (8:15 AM)

The week looked like it may get off to a weaker start as we awaited Wednesday’s FOMC Statement release.

What wasn’t totally expected was just how weak it would get as the market fell back in line with the price of oil, something it hadn’t really done in the past 2 weeks.

There was also the pressure of very weak global markets and the strength of Treasury Notes, but the connection to oil was inescapable yesterday.

The market was sharply lower, then positive and then finished the day sharply lower.

All of that was in perfect concert with oil’s moves.

Today, in the futures trading, oil is again weak, but the market isn’t as low as it could be.

Today, maybe there will be a little more focus on interest rates, but we really won’t get any news until tomorrow.

After that event and Janet Yellen’s press conference, attention can then turn to Great Britain and its vote on whether to remain part of the European Union.

That of course will be quickly forgotten as we then move onto something else, like maybe the upcoming Employment Situation Report and how upward revisions could lead to something substantive coming from July’s FOMC meeting.

But there’s still the rest of this week to deal with.

I added more oil in the hopes of continuing to take advantage of those steep premiums.

Even if the timing proves to be wrong, those premiums make it easier to wait until the timing is no longer an issue.

I don’t think that I’ll be spending any more money this week, but you never know.

I’d be very happy to simply generate some rollover income for the week and as with yesterday’s rollover of a deep in the money position, right now, I’d rather take the premiums than take assignment, even as that would add to cash reserves.

Otherwise, there’s probably not much to watch today and maybe even less to do.

Unless there are some big surprises tomorrow, maybe even if only in the words used to describe the economy, there isn’t much reason for any large moves, although reason is usually not necessary.

Daily Market Update – June 13, 2016 (Close)

The week looked like it may get off to a weaker start as we awaited Wednesday’s FOMC Statement release.

There’s not likely to be any movement on interest rates coming out of that meeting, although lots of attention is also paid to any slight nuances that may come from changed wording.

More importantly, though, may be the tone taken by Chairman Yellen during her press conference later on Wednesday afternoon.

While we awaited those events, the Asian markets were down 3% overnight and oil was down again this morning, as it had difficulty with the $50 level, just as the DJIA and S&P 500 had difficulty with the 18000 and 2100 levels, respectively.

What became very clear today was that oil was in charge, as the market followed it lockstep throughout the day, resulting in a wide trading range.

WIth a few positions set to expire this week, I was just hoping to be able to put them to work if they’re not assigned.

I was surprised to make a rollover trade today, but I decided to keep the Goldminer ETF position set to expire this week, rather than taking a likely assignment. When thinking about it, the risk was that over the next 5 weeks it would have to fall about 16% to become out of the money. In return for that risk I could get an additional 2% premium.

There was a time that I would scoff at 2% for a 5 week period, but these days?

I’ll take it.

For some of those remaining positions assignment seems unlikely, so it may be back to looking at some longer term time frames in an effort to buy time and get paid for doing so.

In the event that Wednesday becomes a non-event, oil may again become prominent in our markets and if the association continues, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see oil take a break, even as summer demand may be increasing.

In the meantime, with each passing day over the next week or so, there can also be lots more attention being paid to Great Britain’s upcoming vote on its EU membership.

There’s lots of hyperbole on that topic and it’s anyone’s guess what that might due to international markets and our own.

With just a little bit of discretionary cash and some uncertainty this week, I wasn’t entirely convinced that I’d be opening any new positions this week, although I was prepared to add an oil position, despite being over-invested in that sector.

Funny thing.

I made that purchase, maybe because I didn’t want to go three consecutive weeks without a new position.

That’s a bad reason.

A better reason was, that even if wrong about the near term direction of its movement, the option premium is so large, and the option market generally so liquid, that there may not be too much difficulty riding out any short term storm.

Otherwise, this may be another week of being a passive bystander and maybe just hoping that asset value climbs as the market tries to figure out what is really important.

Daily Market Update – June 13, 2016 (Close)

The week looked like it may get off to a weaker start as we awaited Wednesday’s FOMC Statement release.

There’s not likely to be any movement on interest rates coming out of that meeting, although lots of attention is also paid to any slight nuances that may come from changed wording.

More importantly, though, may be the tone taken by Chairman Yellen during her press conference later on Wednesday afternoon.

While we awaited those events, the Asian markets were down 3% overnight and oil was down again this morning, as it had difficulty with the $50 level, just as the DJIA and S&P 500 had difficulty with the 18000 and 2100 levels, respectively.

What became very clear today was that oil was in charge, as the market followed it lockstep throughout the day, resulting in a wide trading range.

WIth a few positions set to expire this week, I was just hoping to be able to put them to work if they’re not assigned.

I was surprised to make a rollover trade today, but I decided to keep the Goldminer ETF position set to expire this week, rather than taking a likely assignment. When thinking about it, the risk was that over the next 5 weeks it would have to fall about 16% to become out of the money. In return for that risk I could get an additional 2% premium.

There was a time that I would scoff at 2% for a 5 week period, but these days?

I’ll take it.

For some of those remaining positions assignment seems unlikely, so it may be back to looking at some longer term time frames in an effort to buy time and get paid for doing so.

In the event that Wednesday becomes a non-event, oil may again become prominent in our markets and if the association continues, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see oil take a break, even as summer demand may be increasing.

In the meantime, with each passing day over the next week or so, there can also be lots more attention being paid to Great Britain’s upcoming vote on its EU membership.

There’s lots of hyperbole on that topic and it’s anyone’s guess what that might due to international markets and our own.

With just a little bit of discretionary cash and some uncertainty this week, I wasn’t entirely convinced that I’d be opening any new positions this week, although I was prepared to add an oil position, despite being over-invested in that sector.

Funny thing.

I made that purchase, maybe because I didn’t want to go three consecutive weeks without a new position.

That’s a bad reason.

A better reason was, that even if wrong about the near term direction of its movement, the option premium is so large, and the option market generally so liquid, that there may not be too much difficulty riding out any short term storm.

Otherwise, this may be another week of being a passive bystander and maybe just hoping that asset value climbs as the market tries to figure out what is really important.