Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – June 27, 2016 (Close)

One really has to wonder what people were thinking when they voted to leave the European Union.

Reportedly, Great Britain was actually getting a pretty sweet deal.

Relative to what it put into the bowl, it sounds as if Great Britain was the West Virginia of the EU, yet they still gave the European Union the Byrd.

Did no one think to poll Northern Ireland and Scotland?

Given England’s opposition to Scotland leaving the United Kingdom last year and the support to remain in the EU by Scottish citizens, someone should have realized that there was a problem in the making there.

Beyond that, how could people so blatantly overlook their own financial interests?

Xenophobia is a strong motivator, I suppose.

It will be interesting to see how strong voter’s remorse may turn out to be, but the idea and talk of another vote, as more than 4 million signatures have already been collected is pretty wild and probably unprecedented.

This morning’s futures were not showing any bounce to Friday’s 600 point loss.

The usual script would have the loss continue until about 10 AM and then some kind of a meaningful bounce would occur.

That meaningful bounce usually gives way to more pronounced selling that often leaves the market deeper in the hole.

The bounce higher is often a strong lure and not so easy to withstand.

That 10 AM bounce never came though, as that was about the time that outgoing British Prime Minister, and on the wrong side of public opinion on the topic at hand, spoke to Britains and the world.

I liked what I heard, but investors didn’t care for it too much.

We stood 5% below the all time high on the S&P 500 this morning and there was easily some more downside, since we are only a couple of percentage points below the near term high which was hit just a week or two ago.

With 5 ex-dividend positions this week I may already have the income that I want for the week, but am still interested in the possibility of adding some additional positions this week, despite the risk that exists.

With no positions set to expire, I would like to do something more than just listen to everyone offer their opinions and pontificate on the meaning of everything that happened last week and what more can happen down the road.

If we are to believe that the usual mechanism of the market is to discount the future by about 6 months, then the prediction of a recession in Great Britain by early 2017 may be what is driving the market down further this morning.

I was as rapt as I thought I would be during the day, even as the words fell onto deaf ears.

What I wasn’t expecting was to make as many trades as I did and I even had another one or
two that I had tried to make.

Hopefully, I won’t have any regret later in the week, as did many Brexit voters.

Daily Market Update – June 27, 2016 (8:30 AM)

One really has to wonder what people were thinking when they voted to leave the European Union.

Reportedly, Great Britain was actually getting a pretty sweet deal.

Relative to what it put into the bowl, it sounds as if Great Britain was the West Virginia of the EU, yet they still gave tthe European Union the Byrd.

Did no one think to poll Northern Ireland and Scotland?

Given England’s opposition to Scotland leaving the United Kingdom last year and the support to remain in the EU by Scottish citizens, someone should have realized that there was a problem in the making there.

Beyond that, how could people so blatantly overlook their own financial interests?

Xenophobia is a strong motivator, I suppose.

It will be interesting to see how strong voter’s remorse may turn out to be, but the idea and talk of another vote, as more than 2 million signatures have already been collected is pretty wild and probably unprecedented.

This morning’s futures are not showing any bounce to Friday’s 600 point loss.

The usual script would have the loss continue until about 10 AM and then some kind of a meaningful bounce occurs.

That meaningful bounce usually gives way to more pronounced selling that often leaves the market deeper in the hole.

The bounce higher is often a strong lure and not so easy to withstand.

We stand 5% below the all time high on the S&P 500 this morning and there is easily some more downside, since we are only a couple of percentage points below the near term high which was hit just a week or two ago.

With 5 ex-dividend positions this week I may already have the income that I want for the week, but am still interested in the possibility of adding some additional positions this week, despite the risk that exists.

With no positions set to expire, I would like to do something more than just listen to everyone offer their opinions and pontificate on the meaning of everything that happened last week and what more can happen down the road.

If we are to believe that the usual mechanism of the market is to discount the future by about 6 months, then the prediction of a recession in Great Britain by early 2017 may be what is driving the market down further this morning.

I will be rapt this morning, even as the words will fall onto deaf ears.

Daily Market Update – June 24, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM tonight and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  MRO *

Expirations:  HFC

The following were ex-dividend this week:  LVS (6/20 $0.72), JOY (6/20 $0.01)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  CY (6/28 $0.11), DOW (6/28 $0.46), EMC (6/29 $0.11), WFM (6/29 $0.14), GPS (7/1 $0.23)

* With a large decline looming this morning following Great Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, the position in Marathon Oil, is dropping sharply in the pre-opening futures. Rather than seeing it assigned, if it remains above $1`3.50, I may be interested in attempting to roll it over.

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made by 3:30 PM EDT

Daily Market Update – June 23, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was another day of investors being either cautious or unwilling to take sides.

No one was particularly interested in what Janet Yellen was saying during her second day of Congressional testimony. Instead, there was some re-found concern about the possibility that Great Britain could vote to actually leave the European Union.

This morning, with still about 10 hours to go until the polls closed and nearly 18 hours before all the votes were expected to be counted, the mood was pretty optimistic that departure wasn’t in the cards.

Who knows where that overnight confidence could possibly come from, but that was the position of things this morning and that optimism never gave up.

In fact, the market traded in a narrow range, albeit nicely higher, until the final hour.

That’s when the market decided to add on even more, with still about an hour until the polls were actually closed.

With only 2 positions due to expire this week and having sold only one new position, along with only 2 ex-dividend positions this week, I’d really like to see some action on Friday, especially as a follow-up to today.

Whether that’s assignment or rollover doesn’t really matter to me at this point. I’d just like to generate some more revenue and would again consider trying to rollover a well in the money position just to milk the steep premium.

I’ve been trying to do that almost all week and haven’t been able to get my price, still shooting for an additional 1% on the rollover, as a guideline for making that kind of a trade.

Otherwise, while I was expecting that it might be another day of watching things, there was an opportunity to sell some calls on an uncovered position, although it was for 3 months ahead.

After seeing what the market ended up doing on the rumor, tomorrow we may end up seeing how the market subsequently reacts to the news.

If Britain decides to stay, the question then becomes one of “so why is anything different, now? Why did we buy stocks for no real net change in what’s going on all around us?”

So if today was “buy on the rumor,” you might logically expect a “sell on the news,” although there could always be those still cautious who decide to jump in and join the party.

That’s when everyone else leaves you holding the bag.

Daily Market Update – June 23, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was another day of investors being either cautious or unwilling to take sides.

No one was particularly interested in what Janet Yellen was saying during her second day of Congressional testimony. Instead, there was some re-found concern about the possibility that Great Britain could vote to actually leave the European Union.

This morning, with still about 10 hours to go until the polls close and nearly 18 hours before all the votes are expected to be counted, the mood is pretty optimistic that departure isn’t in the cards.

Who knows where that overnight confidence could possibly come from, but that’s the position of things this morning.

With only 2 positions due to expire this week and having sold only one new position, along with only 2 ex-dividend positions this week, I’d really like to see some action on Friday.

Whether that’s assignment or rollover doesn’t really matter to me at this point. I’d just like to generate some more revenue and would again consider trying to rollover a well in the money position just to milk the steep premium.

I’ve been trying to do that almost all week and haven’t been able to get my price, still shooting for an additional 1% on the rollover, as a ugideline for making that kind of a trade.

Otherwise, it may be yet another day of watching things and seeing what the rumor ends up doing and then seeing how the market subsequently reacts to the news.

If Britain decides to stay, the question then becomes one of “so why is anything different, now? Why did we buy stocks for no real net change in what’s going on all around us?”

So if today is “buy on the rumor,” you might logically expect a “sell on the news,” although there could always be those still cautious who decide to jump in and join the party.

That’s when everyone else leaves you holding the bag.