Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – July 8, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted b y 10 PM and The Weekend Update will be posted by noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  MRO

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:   CSCO (7/5 $0.26)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:   none

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT.

Daily Market Update – July 7, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday would have been a good day to take a little bit of a break.

It did do just that until about noon and then it just became another day of gains and another day getting closer to the resistance points that reside ahead.

This morning, following those gains, which left the market closing at its highs, looked as if it was going to take another break.

This time, if it did, but only after oil reversed course.

Still it may have been a pragmatic break, because tomorrow brings what could be an important bit of economic news.

With the release of the Employment Situation Report we can either confirm the last shockingly low number which definitely scuttled plans for an interest rate increase or we can disavow those numbers as either a one time or maybe even erroneous data set, as revisions are always possible.

Either way, that could mean some significant activity.

Of course, there’s also the possibility that tomorrow’s numbers will be mediocre and the market may continue to be of a mindset to think of that as good news for stock investors, as interest rates will continue to decline.

With only a single position set to expire this week, and a highly volatile one at that, it’s again another situation of not minding if I could roll that single position over, rather than seeing it get assigned.

With some positions set to expire next week as the July 2016 option cycle comes to its end, but no ex-dividend positions, I may still want to free up some additional funds, 

So there may not be much trading left in me for this already trade shortened week, although if the market does react negatively to the news on Friday, I may want to get a head start on the consideration of new positions for the following week, especially if that single expiring position is still in line for assignment.

Daily Market Update – July 7, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday would have been a good day to take a little bit of a break.

It did do just that until about noon and then it just became another day of gains and another day getting closer to the resistance points that reside ahead.

This morning, following those gains, which left the market closing at its highs, looks as if it is going to take another break.

This time, if it does, it may be a pragmatic break, because tomorrow brings what could be an important bit of economic news.

With the release of the Employment Situation Report we can either confirm the last shockingly low number which definitely scuttled plans for an interest rate increase or we can disavow those numbers as either a one time or maybe even erroneous data set, as revisions are always possible.

Either way, that could mean some significant activity.

Of course, there’s also the possibility that tomorrow’s numbers will be mediocre and the market may continue to be of a mindset to think of that as good news for stock investors, as interest rates will continue to decline.

With only a single position set to expire this week, and a highly volatile one at that, it’s again another situation of not minding if I could roll that single position over, rather than seeing it get assigned.

With some positions set to expire next week as the July 2015 option cycle comes to its end, but no ex-dividend positions, I may still want to free up some additional funds, 

So there may not be much trading left in me for this already trade shortened week, although if the market does react negatively to the news on Friday, I may want to get a head start on the consideration of new positions for the following week, especially if that single expiring position is still in line for assignment.

Daily Market Update – July 6, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was a day to take a little bit of a break.

After such strong gains following the large post-Brexit decline, it was probably a good thing to take that kind of a break and to set up a floor from where to make an attack on intermediate and all time highs on the S&P 500.

Both were a little bit further away as this morning was ready to get started, but both were still easy within reach and that reach got even easier by the day’s close as the market made a big turnaround and started posting gains by Noon.

Even more positive is that the market again closed right near its high for the day. 

That was a trend that actually started last week, even on the solitary down day to begin that week.

The market now seems even pretty well positioned to start to attack those support levels at about 2112 and 2137.

The expectation would be that the 2112 may be breached fairly easily at this point, but may still need to be tested.

The 2137 will be more difficult, but days of consolidation of gains, such as yesterday and maybe again today can make it easier to make those assaults as a new level of support is created after the recent large gains.

Yesterday had the usual culprits for a weak market.

Oil was very weak, gold was strong and interest rates went even lower.

Add to that the strength in the US Dollar and you had the equation that would lead to stock selling.

This morning oil wasn’t very weak, but nothing else has really changed in the world, otherwise.

What did change was that oil reversed its direction and took the market along with it.

While the futures were again pointing to some weakness, I would have preferred that over the way the day finally worked out. Some modest declines may not have been such a bad thing, as the big picture evolves.

Today we got some more insight into what the FOMC had been thinking and we may continue to have reason to question the health of our own economy, although the doubts could be set aside with a rebound in the Employment Situation Report numbers on Friday.

That would certainly confuse things and probably further test support.

I don’t expect to be doing much more this week, having made a single purchase and with the big question marks that serve as overhangs.

That will all bring us to the following week and the beginning of another earnings season where we may begin hearing a lot about the risks associated with Brexit.

Those could serve as real headwinds to stocks as guidance may be pessimistic, but next week is still an eternity away.

Daily Market Update – July 6, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was a day to take a little bit of a break.

After such strong gains following the large post-Brexit decline, it was probably a good thing to take that kind of a break and to set up a floor from where to make an attack on intermediate and all time highs on the S&P 500.

Both are a little bit further away as this morning is ready to get started, but both are still easy within reach.

The market seems pretty well positioned to start to attack those support levels at about 2112 and 2137.

The expectation would be that the 2112 may be breached fairly easily at this point, but may still need to be tested.

The 2127 will be more difficult, but days of consolidation of gains, such as yesterday and maybe again today can make it easier to make those assaults as a new level of support is created after the recent large gains.

Yesterday had the usual culprits for a weak market.

Oil was very weak, gold was strong and interest rates went even lower.

Add to that the strength in the US Dollar and you had the equation that would lead to stock selling.

This morning oil isn’t very weak, but nothing else has really changed in the world, otherwise.

The futures are again pointing to some weakness, but that may not be such a bad thing, as the big picture evolves.

Today we get some more insight into what the FOMC has been thinking and we may have reason to question the health of our own economy, although the doubts could be set aside with a rebound in the Employment Situation Report numbers on Friday.

That would certainly confuse things and probably further test support.

I don’t expect to be doing much more this week, having made a single purchase and with the big question marks that serve as overhangs.

That will all bring us to the following week and the beginning of another earnings season where we may begin hearing a lot about therisks associated with Brexit.

Those could serve as real headwinds to stocks as guidance may be pessimistic, but next week is still an eternity away.