Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update –  October 25, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was a good day for the markets.

Despite a fairly sharp decline in oil prices, the market managed to hold onto its gains and was perhaps buoyed by some spreading merger and buyout news.

This morning earnings continue and the first thing that struck me was hearing the early morning release from DuPont, which actually offered some improved guidance.

That’s only one company, but the company matters, as does the sector it’s in.

DuPont is a building block kind of company. When it sees good things ahead that means that its end users are likely to see good things ahead, especially when DuPont’s revenues are anticipated to rise without currency or pricing being factored into the equation.

The morning’s futures weren’t reflecting much in the way of new optimism, but at least it wasn’t squandering yesterday’s small move forward.

With lots of earnings still to come this week and next and those to then be followed by retailer earnings, there is still plenty of reason for the FOMC to begin feeling justified in inching closer and closer to a December interest rate increase.

I think that if investors get to see that there is actually tangible improvement in the economy, particularly if this Friday’s GDP shows an active consumer at work, it may look at that interest rate increase the way it should be interpreted.

That would mean new enthusiasm for stocks, rather than running away for fear of cheap money being taken away.

With one new position opened yesterday and 2 expiring this week, along with 4 ex-dividend positions, I don’t have much need for adding any additional income generating positions.

yesterday’s trade was a little on the unusual side, in that it was an in the money put sale.

That, of course, lead to a bigger than usual premium and it was done on the weakness in shares.

When selling puts, there’s nothing like doing so on the downslide, as long as there’s not too much more downslide to come.

In the case of Marathon Oil, even if there is some more to come, there has been enough volatility in its shares to believe that there will be a chance to live another day and see the downslide reversed.

However, earnings are next week and so I may like the idea of being able to extricate myself, although expectations probably still remain low for the sector as a whole.

I don’t expect, otherwise to be doing too much today, other than hoping for an isolated chance or two to sell some calls.

That doesn’t happen frequently enough, but slowly those uncovered positions are finding some of their own income generating opportunities.

Patience has helped.

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Daily Market Update –  October 24, 2016 (Close)

This has the potential to be a very big week.

It already had that potential before, considering all of the earnings reports that will be flowing in and the week ending GDP report.

What was added to the equation was the blockbuster $85.4 Billion deal and some smaller ones that were announced over the weekend.

What that means is that buyers may believe that there are still some reasonably priced items out there, especially as the window for cheap money may be closing.

Also, if the GDP comes in better than expected, especially if it also includes some upward revisions, the seal on the FOMC deal to raise interest rates may become validated.

What that means for investors is unclear, but as afraid as they are of increased interest rates, they are probably even more fearful of the game being played and the uncertainty hanging over their heads.

The big news for the week may continue to be that huge buyout and all of the speculation regarding regulatory issues and whether it all makes sense, with an eye cast back to the last time Time Warner was in play.

That didn’t work out too well, but I think this time is very, very different.

Different corporate cultures, different times and the knowledge that the future for both partners is here right now and not just speculative dream, as was the case in 2000 or so.

With only one position set to expire this week, 4 ex-dividend positions and some cash from the expiration of short puts, I didn’t know how eager I’d be this week to part with some cash, but it didn’t take long to find out that I was pretty eager to go right back to an old friend.

While I thought that I might take a dip with  AT&T, as it became more appealing after declining  just a little more in price, instead it was once again Marathon Oil, ahead of next week’s earnings always seems appealing.

It should be a busy week on the news front and for my part, i wouldn’t mind some more opportunity to sell some calls on uncovered positions, even if I end up not adding any new positions to the mix.

This week, that’s really my preference, especially after having seen a number of positions expire with the October 2016 contracts coming to their end.

Throw a few Federal reserve people into the mix this week and it may be an interesting one that I think takes the market higher.

Today was a good start in that direction, even as oil faltered.

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Daily Market Update –  October 24, 2016 (7:30 AM)

This has the potential to be a very big week.

It already had that potential before, considering all of the earnings reports that will be flowing in and the week ending GDP report.

What was added to the equation was the blockbuster $85.4 Billion deal and some smaller ones that were announced over the weekend.

What that means is that buyers may believe that there are still some reasonably priced items out there, especially as the window for cheap money may be closing.

Also, if the GDP comes in better than expected, especially if it also includes some upward revisions, the seal on the FOMC deal to raise interest rates may become validated.

What that means for investors is unclear, but as afraid as they are of increased interest rates, they are probably even more fearful of the game being played and the uncertainty hanging over their heads.

The big news for the week may continue to be that huge buyout and all of the speculation regarding regulatory issues and whether it all makes sense, with an eye cast back to the last time Time Warner was in play.

That didn’t work out too well, but I think this time is very, very different.

Different corporate cultures, different times and the knowledge that the future for both partners is here right now and not just speculative dream, as was the case in 2000 or so.

With only one position set to expire this week, 4 ex-dividend positions and some cash from the expiration of short puts, I don’t know how eager I’ll be this week to part with some cash.

By the same token, AT&T, despite spending $85.4, may be appealing if it declines just a little more in price and Marathon Oil, ahead of next week’s earnings always seems appealing.

It should be a busy week on the news front and for my part, i wouldn’t mind some more opportunity to sell some calls on uncovered positions, even if I end up not adding any new positions to the mix.

This week, that’s really my preference, especially after having seen a number of positions expire with the October 2016 contracts coming to their end.

Throw a few Federal reserve people into the mix this week and it may be an interesting one that I think t.hakes the market higher

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Daily Market Update –  October 17, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: MRO $15 (puts)

Expirations:   BMY, CY, HPQ, MRO $14 (puts), WY

The following were ex-dividend this week:    FAST (10/21 $0.30) 

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update –  October 20, 2016 (Close)

With a lot of earnings already out early this morning that painted a mixed picture with regard to the past quarter and more importantly of the coming quarter, we still may be in a position to beat a 2 week losing streak in the market, despite that small loss today.

That would be nice, but there’s still a lot of news ahead in the coming weeks as we get ready for the earnings crescendo that typically comes as retailers report their earnings.

This season, we will also be paying really close attention to their Christmas season guidance, as their impression of the consumer is probably something that is always weighing heavily on the minds of the members of the FOMC.

Coincidentally, they may have a big decision on interest rates due at just about the same time and the big missing piece to the puzzle keep being the reluctant consumer.

There are some signs that may be changing, but no one has the pulse better on that sort of thing than the major retailers.

I’m now counting down the last hours for the week hoping to be able to either keep some positions alive or at least avoid the transaction costs of a rollover and have those positions close enough on Monday’s opening to be able to do something to allow them to generate some revenue, even if having to go out into 2017 to do so.

Why not, as I now have a position set to expire in March 2017.

That would have been unthinkable just a short time ago, other than for my LEAPS kind of buy and hold positions.

So far, this has been a better week than I thought that it might turn out to be and this morning’s sale of so,e calls on an uncovered position helped even more.

We’ll see what opportunities may come from the mixed messages that may continue to come tomorrow.and after.

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