Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – August 10,  2015  (Close)

On the economic news front this is a relatively quiet week, although Wednesday’s JOLTS report could be a sleeper.

It is a report that Janet Yellen herself mentioned about 6 months ago that it was one of the key reports that she looks at. The key pieces of information that can be gotten out of the JOLTS report is whether there’s optimism in the job market and whether there is upward pressure on wages.

The latter is especially important as despite generally strong Employment Situation Reports, the growth in jobs has been, to a degree, discounted, because those new jobs weren’t being accompanied by wages growth.

Other than when she first brought our attention to that report when the market took its information and drove prices higher, it has done nothing to spur any one’s

It is a quiet month for Federal Reserve Governors’ speeches, but we do have 2 of those this week and there may be some more hints regarding what the FOMC may have in mind for their September meeting. Even though there’s still not too much data that would seem to support an interest rate increase at that time, it increasingly appears that despite averring to be data driven, the FOMC is ready, anxious and itching to finally pull the trigger. 

Otherwise there is a Retail Sales Report, but what really counts is when the retailers themselves start reporting their quarterly earnings and that begins this week with JW Nordstrom and then gets really busy the following week.

Overnight, China got the week started on a good note as its markets rose about 5%.

Although our own futures trading this morning wasn’t reflecting that kind of optimism, it’s far better than waking up on a Monday morning and discovering that the Chinese markets fell 5% overnight. We’ve been there and we’ve done that recently.

How long China can continue keeping its markets behaved is anyone’s guess, as it has thus far been successful in preventing a meltdown, but there have been a series of very sharp moves up and down and that should always be a cause for concern.

Today’s 5% gain came even with bad economic news, so you have to wonder if they are taking on some of the perverse interpretations of the news as we occasionally do.

Instead of taking our cue this morning from China, at about 8:15 AM this morning the futures took a jump higher on what was perceived as good news coming from Greece and their access to capital.

We’ll take whatever good news there is and wherever it may come from at this point.

What really came as a surprise is that the rally not only had legs and never wavered through the day, but it actually doubled the gains from the futures by the time the closing bell came around.

This week, with my cash reserves at their lowest levels in at least 5 years, I would be more than happy to see the existing positions set to expire this week get assigned. Without wanting to jinx that from occurring, there is a decent chance of that being the case, but I would also welcome the opportunity to roll them over, otherwise.

Another surprise came today as there was an opportunity to roll over those Twitter puts all the ay to January 2016. That should give time for something to happen that would stem the tide of bad news and corporate mis-steps.

Certainly, as was the case last week, I’d also welcome any chance to sell some new calls on uncovered positions, but again that may take a phenomenon that we haven’t seen much of lately, which is stringing together a couple of positive days. After 7 straight losing sessions you might think that we were due for something good.

At least the
re was one opportunity to get those calls sold, so that’s a start.

Then there was the chance to close out that Texas Instruments position and maybe use the money to do something else, so maybe there’s some hope yet for this week.

Who would have guessed that it might be Greece, but we have a full day of trading ahead to see what kind of staying power that news may have.

Daily Market Update – August 10,  2015  (8:30 AM)

On the economic news front this is a relatively quiet week, although Wednesday’s JOLTS report could be a sleeper.

It is a report that Janet Yellen herself mentioned about 6 months ago that it was one of the key reports that she looks at. The key pieces of information that can be gotten out of the JOLTS report is whether there’s optimism in the job market and whether there is upward pressure on wages.

The latter is especially important as despite generally strong Employment Situation Reports, the growth in jobs has been, to a degree, discounted, because those new jobs weren’t being accompanied by wages growth.

Other than when she first brought our attention to that report when the market took its information and drove prices higher, it has done nothing to spur any one’s

It is a quiet month for Federal Reserve Governors’ speeches, but we do have 2 of those this week and there may be some more hints regarding what the FOMC may have in mind for their September meeting. Even though there’s still not too much data that would seem to support an interest rate increase at that time, it increasingly appears that despite averring to be data driven, the FOMC is ready, anxious and itching to finally pull the trigger. 

Otherwise there is a Retail Sales Report, but what really counts is when the retailers themselves start reporting their quarterly earnings and that begins this week with JW Nordstrom and then gets really busy the following week.

Overnight, China got the week started on a good note as its markets rose about 5%.

Although our own futures trading this morning wasn’t reflecting that kind of optimism, it’s far better than waking up on a Monday morning and discovering that the Chinese markets fell 5% overnight. We’ve been there and we’ve done that recently.

How long China can continue keeping its markets behaved is anyone’s guess, as it has thus far been successful in preventing a meltdown, but there have been a series of very sharp moves up and down and that should always be a cause for concern.

Today’s 5% gain came even with bad economic news, so you have to wonder if they are taking on some of the perverse interpretations of the news as we occasionally do.

Instead of taking our cue this morning from China, at about 8:15 AM this morning the futures took a jump higher on what was perceived as good news coming from Greece and their access to capital.

We’ll take whatever good news there is and wherever it may come from at this point.

This week, with my cash reserves at their lowest levels in at least 5 years, I would be more than happy to see the existing positions set to expire this week get assigned. Without wanting to jinx that from occurring, there is a decent chance of that being the case, but I would also welcome the opportunity to roll them over, otherwise.

Certainly, as was the case last week, I’d also welcome any chance to sell some new calls on uncovered positions, but again that may take a phenomenon that we haven’t seen much of lately, which is stringing together a couple of positive days. After 7 straight losing sessions you might think that we were due for something good.

Who would have guessed that it might be Greece, but we have a full day of trading ahead to see what kind of staying power that news may have.

Daily Market Update – August 7,  2015  (8:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 6 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday,

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  ANF, INTC

Expirations:  none

The following were ex-dividend this week: INTC (8/5 $0.24)

The following will be ex-dividend next week: AZN (8/12 $0.45)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

Daily Market Update – August 6,  2015  (Close)

After attending last night’s Gordon Lightfoot concert I felt like a young man, again.

Not that the music was invigorating, but because the average age in the crowd must have been in the 70s and instead of smartphone charging stations, there were hearing aid and oxygen tank refill stations spread throughout the venue.

It was all a question of comparables.

By comparison I felt pretty young.

The concert, as expected, was about as invigorating as this market has been, which is to say, not all all.

It was disappointing to see yesterday’s early gains evaporate so quickly as it followed oil and energy prices down the drain.

It’s hard to understand why this market is taking a different path from other markets that have been the beneficiaries of lower energy prices. But, by the same token, it’s hard to understand why this economy hasn’t gotten a kick start from those same lower energy prices, so maybe the market is only reflecting what it sees and what it foresees.

Tomorrow brings the Employment SItuation Report and following yesterday’s early reaction to the ADP Report, which delivered some minor disappointment, as the loss of jobs in the energy sector lowered numbers, it’s probable that a similar disappointment tomorrow may also bring market gains.

Otherwise, it continues to be a typical summer where there is less news than is usually the case, especially once August rolls around and most of Europe closes down. While the data will continue coming in, there will either have to be a significant shift in the direction of the economy demonstrating some real growth, or the FOMC has to abandon its claim to being data dependent.

They may just have to say we know what’s best for the economy and we’re not going to wait for things to happen.

That might just be the best thing.

There’s not necessarily anything wrong with a beneficent dictator and at least a rise in interest rates would get us temporarily to stop playing mind games and instead focus on metrics that matter.

With now just one day of trading left to go and today’s sell-off, there’s still some reason to be hopeful that the week may see either assignment or rollover of what few positions are set to expire. Who knows, maybe even another call sale on an uncovered position, as well. But I don’t want to get too greedy, now having been able to get 2 of those uncovered positions back into making some money while sitting and waiting.

Seeing those hopes all come true would be nice, but certainly not something worth predicting, because the market has been beyond predictable of late, other than it hasn’t been very forgiving.

Add today into the growing amount of confusing data making you wonder just what kind of a market could be so close to its highs yet feel so bad.

Daily Market Update – August 6,  2015  (9:15 AM)

After attending last night’s Gordon Lightfoot concert I feel like a young man, again.

Not that the music was invigorating, but because the average age in the crowd must have been in the 70s and instead of smartphone charging stations, there were hearing aid and oxygen tank refill stations spread throughout the venue.

It was all a question of comparables.

By comparison I felt pretty young.

The concert, as expected, was about as invigorating as this market has been, which is to say, not all all.

It was disappointing to see yesterday’s early gains evaporate so quickly as it followed oil and energy prices down the drain.

It’s hard to understand why this market is taking a different path from other markets that have been the beneficiaries of lower energy prices. But, by the same token, it’s hard to understand why this economy hasn’t gotten a kick start from those same lower energy prices, so maybe the market is only reflecting what it sees and what it foresees.

Tomorrow brings the Employment SItuation Report and following yesterday’s early reaction to the ADP Report, which delivered some minor disappointment, as the loss of jobs in the energy sector lowered numbers, it’s probable that a similar disappointment tomorrow may also bring market gains.

Otherwise, it continues to be a typical summer where there is less news than is usually the case, especially once August rolls around and most of Europe closes down. While the data will continue coming in, there will either have to be a significant shift in the direction of the economy demonstrating some real growth, or the FOMC has to abandon its claim to being data dependent.

They may just have to say we know what’s best for the economy and we’re not going to wait for things to happen.

That might just be the best thing.

There’s not necessarily anything wrong with a beneficent dictator and at least a rise in interest rates would get us temporarily to stop playing mind games and instead focus on metrics that matter.

With two days of trading left to go there’s still some reason to be hopeful that the week may see either assignment or rollover of what few positions are set to expire. Who knows, maybe even another call sale on an uncovered position, as well.

That would be nice, but certainly not something worth predicting, because the market has been beyond predictable of late, other than it hasn’t been very forgiving.