Author Archives: TheAcsMan

Daily Market Update – June 3, 2016 (7:00 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  HFC *, MRO *

Rollovers:   none

Expirations:   none

** Even if in the money and bound for assignment, it is possible that I may decide to rollover these positions

The following were ex-dividend this week:  MOS (5/31 $0.275), ANF (6/1 $0.20), BAC (6/1 $0.05), COH (6/1 $0.34)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:   BBY (6/10 $0.28), HPQ (6/6 $0.12),KSS (6/6 $0.50), NEM (6/7 $0.025), GM (6/8 $0.38), WY (6/8 $0.31)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made by 3:30 PM EDT

Daily Market Update – June 2, 2016 (7:00 AM)

Tomorrow is the day that many have been waiting for.

It seems that for about the past year or so, every upcoming Employment Situation Report is given the same label.

Each one is referred to as the most important Employment Situation Report since the previous one.

Every now and then there may be some truth to the hyperbole.

My guess is that if tomorrow’s number comes in strong, investors will rally the market, maybe even approaching or exceeding the previous high on the S&P 500.

That would be a real affirmation of the way the market has seemed to come to accept the prospect of a rate hike coming with the June 2016 FOMC meeting.

After that, it’s anyone’s guess what happens when the FOMC finally does make a decision.

Will it be a repeat of December?

But what if the FOMC delays a decision even if the numbers are good or what if the numbers don’t seem to support an increase in just a couple of weeks?

Then it’s really a guessing game.

In that case, the market may simply go back to what it has done for most of 2016 and just follow oil, although the correlation has been getting weaker lately.

Between now and the FOMC Statement there will be a number of Federal Reserve Governors speaking their minds, including the most important one of all, but they have all been sending such mixed messages that’s it’s really hard to know whether the various members of the Federal Reserve are truly expressing their opinions or just sending test balloons out.

That’s what happens when the Federal reserve gets too concerned about stock markets and loses focus and maybe its ability to have an objective approach to analysis and action.

For me, my analysis is that mere mortals can’t know what is even reasonable probability of occurring and my actions show how ambivalent and uncertain I am.

The market, though, as measured by Volatility, seems very certain, as volatility is so very low.

That usually means the market is heading for a surprise.

Just like after December’s decision, maybe.

I’m just about this week’s ex-dividend positions and perhaps an opportunity to get either assignments or rollovers of both positions expiring this week.

Two positions is still a paltry number, but anything in play is either a means for more income production or more for building up cash reserves, so I’m hoping some rational thought holds up until this week comes to its end.

Daily Market Update – June 1, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday looked like it was a week day, but it really wasn’t that bad.

Today it looked like it might get bad, but it didn’t.

With an eye on Volatility this week, as a possible trading vehicle ahead of the FOMC announcement in a couple of weeks, you would have seen the story being told yesterday, but not so much today.

The VIX is usually higher as the market goes lower, but even as the DJIA closed down nearly 90 points yesterday, the VIX ended the day lower.

That’s because the S&P 500 was only very slightly lower and the NASDAQ was higher.

The market actually performed reasonably well yesterday, other than for a handful of DJIA stocks.

It showed in the VIX.

There wasn’t much else really going on yesterday and it seemed as if it might just be more of the same today as the futures were unfolding, but then it started turning negative.

Then it did turn out to be more of the same as the market actually climbed back about the same amount that it did the prior day.

This morning’s futures were lower, but not by very much, as we waited for some potentially important news on Friday as the Employment Situation Report is released.

A strong number, indicating lots of new jobs being created and a decrease in the unemployment rate, could mean another test for traders.

We would find out whether traders are still at ease with the idea of an interest rate increase, or whether they breathe a collective sigh if the numbers aren’t that great.

Logic would tell you that the market should really embrace anything that seems to be reflective of an improving economy.

Given where markets stand, it is pretty amazing just how high they are without the real strong push from the economy. Those rising oil prices may not be from an improving world wide economic picture, so it’s a little puzzling why the stock market continues to embrace those higher prices.

It has been a long time, but we’re either still waiting for a real rebound or we have to get used to the idea that there may be a new paradigm at hand, or maybe the real coming of the old paradigm that never happened.

We may have just been experiencing lots of mini-soft landings over the many months since 2009, as we’ve gently nudged higher and higher and the economy has gently become better and better.

We’re not used to that sort of thing, usually expecting extremes and extreme actions in response.

This week I’m not likely to have much action myself, other than perhaps to roll over a position or 2 or to see a position or two get assigned.

At this point, I’d be happy to roll them over, even if faced with assignment, as has been the case for the past month or so.

The rollovers seem like much easier money than hunting for a new position when looking for a place to park cash coming from assignments.

Maybe that’s being lazy, but I would rather rest in a pile of income than in a pile of cash being put at risk.

Daily Market Update – June 1, 2016 (8:15 AM)

Yesterday looked like it was a week day, but it really wasn’t that bad.

With an eye on Volatility this week, as a possible trading vehicle ahead of the FOMC announcement in a couple of weeks, you would have seen the story being told.

The VIX is usually higher as the market goes lower, but even as the DJIA closed down nearly 90 points, the VIX ended the day lower.

That’s because the S&P 500 was only very slightly lower and the NASDAQ was higher.

The market actually performed reasonably well yesterday, other than for a handful of DJIA stocks.

It showed in the VIX.

There wasn’t much else really going on yesterday and it may just be more of the same today.

This morning’s futures are lower, but not by very much, as we wait for some potentially important news on Friday as the Employment Situation Report is released.

A strong number, indicating lots of new jobs being created and a decrease in the unemployment rate, could mean another test for traders.

We would find out whether traders are still at ease with the idea of an interest rate increase, or whether they breathe a collective sigh if the numbers aren’t that great.

Logic would tell you that the market should really embrace anything that seems to be reflective of an improving economy.

Given where markets stand, it is pretty amazing just how high they are without the real strong push from the economy.

It has been a long time, but we’re either still waiting for a real rebound or we have to get used to the idea that there may be a new paradigm at hand, or maybe the real coming of the old paradigm that never happened.

We may have just been experiencing lots of mini-soft landings over the many months since 2009, as we’ve gently nudged higher and higher and the economy has gently become better and better.

We’re not used to that sort of thing, usually expecting extremes and extreme actions in response.

This week I’m not likely to have much action myself, other than perhaps to roll over a position or 2 or to see a position or two get assigned.

At this point, I’d be happy to roll them over, even if faced with assignment, as has been the case for the past month or so.

The rollovers seem like much easier money than hunting for a new position when looking for a place to park cash coming from assignments.

Maybe that’s being lazy, but I would rather rest in a pile of income than in a pile of cash being put at risk.