Daily Market Update – June 27, 2016

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Daily Market Update – June 27, 2016 (8:30 AM)


One really has to wonder what people were thinking when they voted to leave the European Union.

Reportedly, Great Britain was actually getting a pretty sweet deal.

Relative to what it put into the bowl, it sounds as if Great Britain was the West Virginia of the EU, yet they still gave tthe European Union the Byrd.

Did no one think to poll Northern Ireland and Scotland?

Given England’s opposition to Scotland leaving the United Kingdom last year and the support to remain in the EU by Scottish citizens, someone should have realized that there was a problem in the making there.

Beyond that, how could people so blatantly overlook their own financial interests?

Xenophobia is a strong motivator, I suppose.

It will be interesting to see how strong voter’s remorse may turn out to be, but the idea and talk of another vote, as more than 2 million signatures have already been collected is pretty wild and probably unprecedented.

This morning’s futures are not showing any bounce to Friday’s 600 point loss.

The usual script would have the loss continue until about 10 AM and then some kind of a meaningful bounce occurs.

That meaningful bounce usually gives way to more pronounced selling that often leaves the market deeper in the hole.

The bounce higher is often a strong lure and not so easy to withstand.

We stand 5% below the all time high on the S&P 500 this morning and there is easily some more downside, since we are only a couple of percentage points below the near term high which was hit just a week or two ago.

With 5 ex-dividend positions this week I may already have the income that I want for the week, but am still interested in the possibility of adding some additional positions this week, despite the risk that exists.

With no positions set to expire, I would like to do something more than just listen to everyone offer their opinions and pontificate on the meaning of everything that happened last week and what more can happen down the road.

If we are to believe that the usual mechanism of the market is to discount the future by about 6 months, then the prediction of a recession in Great Britain by early 2017 may be what is driving the market down further this morning.

I will be rapt this morning, even as the words will fall onto deaf ears.



Dashboard – June 27 – July 1, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   The futures aren’t indicating any post-“Brexit” bounce and that may make things more interesting as the morning unfolds.

TUESDAY:   This morning may finally have the bounce, which hopefully secures the outcome of the positions opened yesterday and expiring this week.

WEDNESDAY:  Buying into the close on Monday may have been a sign of Tuesday’s bounce and that buying into the close continued on Tuesday, as well. This morning’s futures are again pointing nicely higher, as a result

THURSDAY:  After all of the tumult of the past few days the S&P 500 is down only 2% from where it left off right before the Brexit vote. This morning is trying to whittle down the loss even further

FRIDAY:.  Today may be a much warranted day of rest before a long holiday weekend.

 

 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

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Weekly Summary

  

Weekend Update – June 26, 2016

 A week ago, the world was getting ready for what all the polls had been predicting.

Only those willing to book bets seemed to have a different opinion.

Polls indicated that Great Britain was going to vote to leave the European Union, but those willing to put their money where their mouths were, didn’t agree.

Then suddenly there was a shift, perhaps due to the tragic murder of a proponent of keeping the EU intact.

That shift was seen not only in the polls, but in markets.

Suddenly, everyone was of the belief that British voters would do the obviously right thing and vote with their economic health in mind, first and foremost.

The funny thing is that it’s pretty irrational to expect rational behavior.

In a real supreme measure of confidence, just look at the 5 day performance of the S&P 500 leading up to the vote.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

 

 

Week In Review – June 20 – 24, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

June 20 – 24, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
1  /  1 1 0 1   /   0 1   /   0 0 2

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

June 20 – 24, 2016


Last week it was hard to understand what had happened.

This week it was easy.

When it was all said and done today’s decline took 2016 negative for the year.

What may be sadder is that it only took a 3.6% loss to do that at this point in the year.

There was a new position opened this week and somehow it managed to stay above water. That position was 3.2% higher, finishing 4.8% higher than both the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500. The basic index ended the week being 1.6% lower, as its good gain for the week was obliterated on Friday.

Existing positions were 0.7% higher than the S&P 500 for the week, however, that meant they still lost 0.9%.

With a single new assignment on the week closed positions in 2016 were 8.0% higher, while the comparable performance for the S&P 500 during the same holding periods has been 1.2% higher. That represents a completely ridiculous 593.8% difference in return on closed positions. That would be much more impressive if there were many more closed positions in 2016, but that just hasn’t been the case.

Even as existing positions lost 0.9% for the week, it wasn’t entirely terrible.

It certainly could have been much, much worse, especially as oil was hit so hard to end the week, as well.

Still, the single new position opened on the week fared well and there were a couple of ex-dividend positions, as well as an assignment.

It also helped to see one uncovered position get some cover, although another position did end up ex[piring.

This week just showed how terrible investors, pollsters and everyone else happens to be.

The confidence exhibited by investors heading into the “Brexit” vote has to be way up there with the biggest mis-reads in the world.

Amazingly markets were driven higher on Thursday ahead of the vote as if there was immunity to disappointment.

That was definitely not the case as everyone get it so terribly wrong.

Politicians, pollsters, bookies and investors.

We will start the week with what look to be lots of bargains.

I will start the week with a little more cash from an assignment, but with about 5 ex-dividend positions on the week I may not feel much uregency to add any new positions.

The manner in which financials were hit to end the week, however, makes them very tempting, but those temptations may abound in other sectors, as well.

Why Macy’s had to feel the blow from Brexit, I may not fully comprehend, but there may be good reason to look critically at lots of things.

For now, though, I’m just going to think about the weekend and how good it is to be in the United States of America, without too much thought of any important state deciding to secede.


This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  CY

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: STX

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  MRO

Calls Expired:  HFC

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions   LVS (6/20 $0.72), JPY (6/20 $0.01)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: CY (6/28 $0.11), DOW (6/28 $0.46), EMC (6/29 $0.11), WFM (6/29 $0.14), GPS (7/1 $0.23)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Daily Market Update – June 24, 2016

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Daily Market Update – June 24, 2016 (7:30 AM)


The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM tonight and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  MRO *

Expirations:  HFC

The following were ex-dividend this week:  LVS (6/20 $0.72), JOY (6/20 $0.01)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  CY (6/28 $0.11), DOW (6/28 $0.46), EMC (6/29 $0.11), WFM (6/29 $0.14), GPS (7/1 $0.23)

* With a large decline looming this morning following Great Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, the position in Marathon Oil, is dropping sharply in the pre-opening futures. Rather than seeing it assigned, if it remains above $1`3.50, I may be interested in attempting to roll it over.

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made by 3:30 PM EDT