Dashboard – July 25 – 29, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   The week looks as if it might get off to a quiet start as an FOMC Statement release is ahead, as is the GDP. No one expects much from either, but that could lead to a summer surprise

TUESDAY:   A rare down day yesterday, although off from its lows, looks as if it will be followed by a day opening flat, as the FOMC convenes and investors have no expectations for policy alteration.

WEDNESDAY:  The FOMC Statement is released this afternoon as the week thus far is one looking for direction, even as earnings have been better than expected and haven’t been painting a negative picture for months ahead.

THURSDAY:  Another flat day may await as we also await tomorrow’s GDP. At the same time, investors are betting that it’s less than even money that we even get a single rate hike in 2016 at this point, although there’s lots of data to come and Friday could be the start of an upward pointing stream

FRIDAY:.  For now, the futures are looking as if it will be another flat day, but the GDP still awaits, so anything may yet happen

 

 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 





 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Summary

  

Weekend Update – July 24, 2016

“When you’re a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”

That old saying has some truth to it.

Maybe a lot of truth.

When you think about stocks all day long everything seems to be some sort of an indicator as I look for a rational explanation to what is often a prelude to an irrational outcome.

Reducing the intricate character of what is found in nature to a mathematical sequence is both uplifting and deflating.

When the very thought of uplifting and deflating conjures up an image of a stock chart it may be time to re-evaluate things.

When you start seeing the beauty in nature as a series of peaks and troughs and start thinking about Fibonacci Retracements, it is definitely time to step back.

Sometimes stepping back is the healthy thing to do, but as the market has been climbing it’s most recent mountain that has repeatedly taken the S&P 500 to new closing highs, it hasn’t taken very many breaks in its ascent.

You don’t have to be a technician, nor a mountain climber to know that every now and then you have to regroup and re-energize.

You also don’t have to be a mountain climber to know that standing on the edge of a cliff is fraught with danger, just as each step higher adds to risk, unless there’s a place to rest.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

Daily Market Update – July 22, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

July 18 – 22, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  1 0 2 0   /   0 0  /   0 0 1

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

July 18 – 22, 2016


Records, records and more records.

That’s how last week ended and so did this week.

In the post-Brexit world this was just another in a series of good weeks.

Once again, there was only one position opened this week and it was also once again a familiar one.

That’s also exactly what I said last week, but that’s actually the ideal way a covered option strategy would work and it has been a long time since really being able to serially execute trades in any positions, so it does feel more rewarding than has been the case of late.

That position ended the week 0.6% higher, but could do no better than both the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500.

The S&P 500, itself, rose another 0.6%.

Maybe not as impressive as previous week, but still enough to make people happy, especially the people that matter most.

Me.

Existing positions bested the S&P 500 by an additional 0.3%, in what was really a good week.

With  no  new closed positions on the week closed positions in 2016 are still 6.8% higher, while the comparable performance for the S&P 500 during the same holding periods has been 1.9% higher. That represents a 267% difference in return on closed positions. As with every week in 2016, I’d be much more impressed if there were far more of those closed positions to point toward. With such few closed positions for the year, the differential could just as easily have been in the other direction and of a similar magnitude, yet also signifying little.

This was another good week in what continues to be a good year, despite very little additional trading this week.

It’s always nice to see asset values rise some more, but I still prefer to have some activity accompany the gains.

Once again, this week had only 1 new position opened and only two rollovers. Unfortunately, despite having some feelers out there, I couldn’t find any buyers for uncovered positions to supplement the scant dividend income for the week..

With only a single ex-dividend positions this week, I would have liked to have had more income generating opportunities, but all in all, I was pleased.

With only one new purchase this week and still having cash from assignments the previous week, I do have some discretionary cash to put to work.

However, we’re still at all time highs and I’m not eager to put too much at risk in the chase.

With 2 positions expiring next week and 3 ex-dividend positions, there may already be sufficient opportunity for income generation to tread lightly, but I’ll still keep an open mind as the FOMC sets the stage for the coming week.

While that does take place on Wednesday, the real event to get some notice may turn out to be Friday’s GDP report.

A strong GDP may give some reason to believe that the FOMC will make an interest rate increase announcement as early as August, even though there is no meeting scheduled and no press conference.

That would catch some off guard and might be construed as more than just mildly inflationary.

But that’s attempting to be logical and logic hasn’t had much of a home for a year or more.

Lots more.



This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  MRO (puts)

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   MRO

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: MRO

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  none

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions   FAST (7/22 $0.30)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: F (7/27 $0.15), MS (7/28 $0.20), KMI (7/29 $0.125)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Daily Market Update – July 22, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 22, 2016 (7:30 AM)


The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:   none

Rollovers:   MRO puts

Expiration:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:   FAST (7/22 $0.30)

The following are ex-dividend next week:   F (7/26 $0.15), MS (7/27 $0.20), KMI (7/28 $0.125).

Trades, if any will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT.

.

 

Daily Market Update – July 21, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 21, 2016 (Close)


Yesterday the market made it 9 straight days with new all time closing highs, at least on the DJIA.

This morning the futures were pointing to a respite, but that likely meant little if past history would serve as any kind of guide.

When it comes to these kind of things, it usually does, but not today.

Today, the futures had it right and if anything, under-estimated the lack of enthusiasm remaining after those 9 consecutive winning days..

While you can easily rationalize a large move higher or a large move lower, even as earnings are coming in that may suggest otherwise, the best of all market days would bring some stability right now.

Today’s decline, particularly as it recovered somewhat from its lows, may be a good first step toward stability.

Whether a market takes a dive or surges, the next step that makes most everyone feel better is when the market takes a rest and either slows its selling or slows its buying.

It usually takes more than a day to create a resting point that you can actually consider as representing price support.

While it may be nice to see a respite in buying, that respite may not be an indication to start adding new positions, though.

While developing support is a good thing, there are those sitting on gains who look at those very brief stops as being the time to lock in some profits. The longer those respites continue and the more clear it becomes that the respite is creating some price support, the more inclined investors may be to start adding positions.

Unless of course emotion overtakes rational thought.

Again, if past history is a guide…….

For now, I just look forward to the end of the trading week and a hope that earnings continue to be positive.

One earnings report that i found fascinating this morning was from eBay, which gave very positive guidance.

What made that fascinating was that just about every analyst following eBay had said that in the event of a vote to leave the EU, eBay would be one of those companies that would suffer along with the JP Morgans of the world.

eBay and JP Morgan?

As a result, eBay’s shares were trading lower immediately after the “Brexit” vote.

Now, just a couple of weeks later, they are trading much higher and the company says something completely the opposite of what the analysts had expressed.

Go figure.

I’ve given up trying to figure those things out. I’m still not certain what kind of voodoo analysts practice and why there is acceptance when utterances are made and buy/sell recommendations, along with price targets are given.

I often wonder whether those utterances are simply an opportunity to either push an existing position and to execute a short term strategy.

But as long as my assets are appreciating, I can put the cynic in me into a period of  respite, as well..

We’ll see how long that lasts.