Author Archives: TheAcsMan

Daily Market Update –  November 10, 2016 (7:30 AM)

What can you say about yesterday?

What may get more interesting is what we are going to say about events as they unfold between now and Inauguration Day.

The FOMC pretty much had its work done for it yesterday as yields on the 10 Year treasury went up by an astonishing 11%, carrying it to over 2%.

The market clearly had been afraid of a Trump victory, but then came to realize that some sectors might be clear winners, at least in the short term.

As much as most everyone willing to put their “expertise” on the line was wrong about the election outcomes, it will be hard to listen to anyone’s predictions for what comes next.

What may be a great thing is to have the economy finally coming to a point that its own momentum and growth will enable some of the economic policies and deficit spending that may await.

I would look at that only with a bullish lens.

As far as this week is going, it certainly has been bullish and I haven’t minded going along for the ride.

With some sales of calls on uncovered positions and another serial rollover of that yo-yo energy position, Marathon Oil, even as the short puts were out of the money, I may be done for the week.

Looking at 2016’s bottom line, I’m increasingly pleased, except for the fact that there are so few closed positions.

I do like having put more positions to work and I especially like the relative performance to the S&P 500, but those assignments tend to fuel income opportunities.

As this week comes to an end, I’m looking at next week’s monthly cycle end and a number of positions that are in play as either rollovers or assignments.

I would love to see some combination of those heading into the final month of the year and being in a good position to begin 2017.

2015 didn’t exactly do that, but 2016 has been an entirely different year and I’m looking forward to that continuing in 2017.

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Daily Market Update –  November 9, 2016 (Close)

What can you say about today?

The day after the election day that everyone got wrong?

Well, at least the early going 800 point loss in the DJIA futures had been pared by 500 points and maybe we were also looking at an economy ahead that could get a large infrastructure boost.

A much needed one at the expense of the deficit.

Maybe that should have been done 8 years ago and people would have been put back to work much sooner than 2016.

This morning, my only thought was to “Hang on,” as I didn’t think it would be as bad over the next few days as I might have thought as recently as only yesterday.

What it turned out to be was a gain that I wasn’t really expecting had the other side won.

From the trough of the morning’s futures to the peak just near the close, the market made up almost 1100 points.

Wow.

There, I said it again.

What a day and with some real sector winners and some real movement in interest rates, pretty much doing the FOMC’s work for it.

Let’s see what the second day of the realization of the unimaginable will bring.

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Daily Market Update –  November 9, 2016 (7:30 AM)

What can you say about today?

The day after the election day that everyone got wrong?

Well, at least the early going 800 point loss in the DJIA futures has been pared by 500 points and maybe we’re looking at an economy ahead that could get a large infrastructure boost.

A much needed one at the expense of the deficit.

Maybe that should have been done 8 years ago and people would have been put back to work much sooner than 2016.

Hang on, but I don’t think it will be as bad over the next few days as I might have thought as recently as yesterday.

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Daily Market Update –  November 8, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday the market made it pretty clear that it didn’t like the uncertainty that they perceived with a Trump victory.

The association between the market’s sudden decline when news suggesting that there may have been more emails to be discovered and the surge when the all clear was given, was pretty undeniable.

The market views one side far more favorably than another, even as it has usually been wrong about which side to favor for the past generation or two.

This time they may be right, but not because of any individual, more because the trend is in the direction that will take the swinging pendulum of an economy over to the side of economic growth.

It was likely going to happen anyway, barring some horrible disaster or truly terrible policy decisions.

Even the lesser wanted of the 2 candidates would not likely be able to introduce such drastic policy decisions and to do so quickly enough to warrant the kind of reaction to the very thought of his victory.

I just enjoyed watching yesterday’s move higher and despite today’s seeming calm, there may be more in store tomorrow.

The question is really what happens after tomorrow?

At some point soon there has to be a realization that all signs are now for a rate hike in December, unless we get terrible retail earnings news this week.

Does the market look at that rate hike, now that it is almost guaranteed as the enemy or as a friend welcoming all into the great things that await in the economy?

Logic tells you that it should be the latter, especially at this early stage of interest rate increases.

History bears out the logic in using logic, but no one knows if the market will see it that way.

It did for a brief moment or two this time last year, but then may have gotten spooked by the thought of even more rate increases that never came.

That’s where this time around may be different.

Employment is higher and wages are moving higher. With evidence of GDP growth the time may finally be here for a series of rate hikes and at some point it will become burdensome.

That’s what a pendulum is all about.

Today the pendulum just kept swinging a little more, but those early election results are going to have to change if the pendulum is to keep moving in that direction.

This is one case that I don’t expect an immediate sell on the news in the event of the expected outcome.

It’s the unexpected that should always be frightening, though.

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Daily Market Update –  November 8, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday the market made it pretty clear that it didn’t like the uncertainty that they perceived with a Trump victory.

The association between the market’s sudden decline when news suggesting that there may have been more emails to be discovered and the surge when the all clear was given, was pretty undeniable.

The market views one side far more favorably than another, even as it has usually been wrong about which side to favor for the past generation or two.

This time they may be right, but not because of any individual, more because the trend is in the direction that will take the swinging pendulum of an economy over to the side of economic growth.

It was likely going to happen anyway, barring some horrible disaster or truly terrible policy decisions.

Even the lesser wanted of the 2 candidates would not likely be able to introduce such drastic policy decisions and to do so quickly enough to warrant the kind of reaction to the very thought of his victory.

I just enjoyed watching yesterday’s move higher and despite today’s seeming calm, there may be more in store tomorrow.

The question is really what happens after tomorrow?

At some point soon there has to be a realization that all signs are now for a rate hike in December, unless we get terrible retail earnings news this week.

Does the market look at that rate hike, now that it is almost guaranteed as the enemy or as a friend welcoming all into the great things that await in the economy?

Logic tells you that it should be the latter, especially at this early stage of interest rate increases.

History bears out the logic in using logic, but no one knows if the market will see it that way.

It did for a brief moment or two this time last year, but then may have gotten spooked by the thought of even more rate increases that never came.

That’s where this time around may be different.

Employment is higher and wages are moving higher. With evidence of GDP growth the time may finally be here for a series of rate hikes and at some point it will become burdensome.

That’s what a pendulum is all about.

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