Week In Review – November 21 – 25, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review


NOVEMBER 21 – 25, 2016

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
0  /   0  3 0 0   /   0 0   /   0 0 1

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

November 21 – 25, 2016

New Record, new record and more new records.

That pretty much sums things up, yet the S&P 500 is up only 8.3%.

Still a good year, but record after record, after record.

This week had no new positions opened as the S&P 500 advanced 1.5%, or about 20% of the year’s gain.

I was, once again, though pretty happy with this week, even though I didn’t open any new positions.

More importantly, while conserving cash from the previous week’s assignments, there was again opportunity to put some idle positions to work with the sale of calls on 3 uncovered positions.

With one ex-dividend position and those 3 call sales there was some generation of income, but there was also the ability to keep up with the advancing market.

Existing positions actually bested the market by 0.1% on the week, adding to their very good performance in 2016.

On paper, anyway, they are well ahead of the 8.3% advance in the S&P 500, but I’m always reluctant to talk about things like that until the profits are booked and not just on paper.

There were no new closed positions this week, so performance of closed positions in 2016 goes unchanged, still sitting with only 27 closed on the year, but still hoping to at least make it to a paltry 30 by the year’s end.

This was another week with  really not too much going on.

If anything, we just got one week closer to the FOMC’s next meeting and increasing certainty that there will be an interest rate increase at that time.

No panic, yet, and it’s looking as if there may not be any panic.

While we do hit these new highs, we’re not doing it in a way as to raise any eyebrows.

That’s exactly the way i
t was in 2007. We just wore higher and higher.

Nothing really spectacular, just hard earned positive days, but without those triple digit moves to make people giddy or nervous.

Because of that, I think that we are still headed even higher, unless something stunning happens in the next month or so.

Anything larger than a 0.25% rate increase, or anything that might question the validity of the Presidential election, could create some angst, but I’m not counting, nor hoping for either.

Next week does have the GDP and then the Employment Situation Report, nut unless they too have some really big surprises, there isn’t even anything any of the FOMC members speaking next week can really do or say to change investor sentiment.

With cash still on hand and with nothing on schedule for expiration next week, I take some solace in having about 4 ex-dividend positions. I wouldn’t mind a little bit of profit taking before considering spending any of that cash, but I’m very unlikely to go chasing the market if it moves higher.

If it does, I’ll just be happy to get some more paper profits and perhaps get a chance to sell some more calls or be in a better position to roll some positions over when the December 2016 option cycle is up for its expiration.

I otherwise expect to remain quiet again next week, but certainly wouldn’t mind another week like this one.

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  none

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: GMC, INTC, WY

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  none

< p>Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions    HFC (11/23 $0.33)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: GME (11/29 $0.37), MOS (11/29 $0.275), ANF )11/30 $0.20), BAC (11/30 $0.075)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Daily Market Update – November 25, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  November 18, 2016 (7:30 AM)


The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:     HFC (11/23 $0.33)

The following are ex-dividend next week: GME (11/29 $0.37), MOS (11/29 $0.275), ANF )11/30 $0.20), BAC (11/30 $0.075)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update – November 23, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  November 23, 2016 (Close)


With these trade shortened holiday weeks anything can happen, but from the view this morning it looked as if the Trump rally would now take a day of rest as much of the nation was in transit.

Futures appeared to be fairly quiet this morning as the day began with more new record closing highs.

When it was all over, there were more record highs.

Nothing huge, but still new highs, even as the S&P 500 was up only 0.08% and the NASDAQ was actually down 0.1%.

People like to talk about those round numbers, so yesterday was a big day as the DJIA closed above 19000 for the first time and the S&P 500 closed over 2200 and today they stayed above those levels.

There is plenty of reason to think that when these kind of new highs are hit it is just a launching board for a sharp move higher.

There is also plenty of evidence to suggest when we hit these kind of new highs there is profit taking ahead.

Then there is plenty of evidence to suggest that when we hit these new highs and there is subsequent profit taking, that becomes a launching pad for new highs.

Although another test of those highs may be in store, with more evidence indicating that the third time is a charm.

Then, there is also plenty of evidence that when we hit these kind of new highs there is a correction ahead.

Take your pick.

I think that we may have more new highs ahead, but I also think that the FOMC enters back into the equation.

Not just with its announcement next month, but also with the frequency and size of interest rate decisions in 2017.

For the rest of 2016, I think we may coast and end up looking at the year as a very positive one for the markets, but more importantly, for ourselves.

Even more importantly, I hope everyone has a happy and healthy Thanksgiving.

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Daily Market Update – November 23, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  November 23, 2016 (7:30 AM)


With these trade shortened holiday weeks anything can happen, but for now it looks as if the Trump rally may now take a day of rest as much of the nation is in transit.

Futures appear to be fairly quiet this morning as the day begins with more new record closing highs.

People like to talk about those round numbers, so yesterday was a big day as the DJIA closed above 19000 for the first time and the S&P 500 closed over 2200.

There is plenty of reason to think that when these kind of new highs are hit it is just a launching board for a sharp move higher.

There is also plenty of evidence to suggest when we hit these kind of new highs there is profit taking ahead.

Then there is plenty of evidence to suggest that when we hit these new highs and there is subsequent profit taking, that becomes a launching pad for new highs.

Although another test of those highs may be in store, with more evidence indicating that the third time is a charm.

Then, there is also plenty of evidence that when we hit these kind of new highs there is a correction ahead.

Take your pick.

I think that we may have more new highs ahead, but i also think that the FOMC enters back into the equation.

Not just with its announcement next month, but also with the frequency and size of interest rate decisions in 2017.

For the rest of 2016, I think we may coast and end up looking at the year as a very positive one for the markets, but more importantly, for ourselves.

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Daily Market Update – November 22, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  November 22, 2016 (Close)


With these trade shortened holiday weeks anything can happen, but for now it looks as if the Trump rally may continue after taking a week off.

Markets hit all time highs yesterday on all indexes and they looked like they were getting ready to do the same again today and they ended up staying true to that theme all day long.

That still leaves me in a frame of mind to simply go along for the ride and then, wherever may be possible, sell some calls on existing uncovered positions.

I tried doing that today and also tried some early rollovers, but without any luck.

Maybe tomorrow.

Now, I would simply like to close the books on 2016 although it won’t be a year in which I closed lots of trades.

Instead, it will, hopefully, finish as a year with just a nice increase in net asset value, but without realizing a lot of those gains.

I hope that 2017 has more trades closing and more new trades getting made.

Those all represent realized gains and they can’t evaporate overnight like the paper ones can do at any moment in time.

I’m still not against spending any cash to generate some income this week, but at this point, I’m not thrilled about buying into strength at a time when premiums are so low from their already depressed volatility and the trade shortened week.

Or, I could just do like yesterday and sit around doing nothing.

Sounds like a good plan for tomorrow and the rest of the week.

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