Author Archives: TheAcsMan

Daily Market Update – April 1, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM tonight and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:   none

Rollovers:   M

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this past week:  CY (3/29 $0.11), DOW (3/39 $0.46), EMC (3/30 $0.12)

The following are ex-dividend next week:   CSCO (4/4 $0.26),  GPS (4/4 $0.23), WFM (4/6 $0.13)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update – March 31, 2016 (Close)

The past 2 days of mild rallies could only have been attributed to the unexpectedly dovish tone from Janet Yellen.

Once always the messenger of dovish outlooks, she had become less so as the expectation was increasingly for some very minor tightening with a barely noticeable increase in interest rates.

There’s been no doubt that traders haven’t liked the idea of even a 0.25% increase even if it meant that remaining so low was a reflection of a moribund economy.

The past couple of days were a reflection of still embracing an economy hobbling along, rather than rejoicing in one that is growing.

Obviously, anyone old enough would be concerned about unbridled growth and inflation, but it’s still so hard to understand the fears associated with even a series of increases, if they were indeed as small as everyone suspects they would be.

This morning’s futures were flat ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report and stayed that way all through the session, as we may find out whether Yellen’s dovish tone is the one that will hold the day or whether some of the more hawkish Federal Reserve Governors are the ones who have it all pegged properly.

With only a single position set for expiration this week and time running out on the week, I didn’t expect to do much today, so I wasn’t disappointed. At least today still left me in a position tomorrow to either see an assignment or get to make a rollover.

It’s wasn’t too likely that in the day ahead of the Employment Situation report that too many would really stick their necks out, since even among those who should know the best, there’s lots of disagreement over the speed and intensity at which our economy is progressing.

It’s probably not a great idea to take sides when the really smart people can’t be in agreement, but it also may not be a good idea to take sides tomorrow in the event that emotions take hold.

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Daily Market Update – March 31, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The past 2 days of mild rallies could only have been attributed to the unexpectedly dovish tone from Janet Yellen.

Once always the messenger of dovish outlooks, she had become less so as thge expectation was increasingly for some very minor tightening with a barely noticeable increase in interest rates.

There’s been no doubt that traders haven’t liked the idea of even a 0.25% increase even if it meant that remaining so low was a reflection of a moribund economy.

The past couple of days were a reflection of still embracing an economy hobbling along, rather than rejoicing in one that is growing.

Obviously, anyone old enough would be concerned about unbridled growth and inflation, but it’s still so hard to understand the fears associated with even a series of increases, if they were indeed as small as everyone suspects they would be.

This morning’s futures are flat ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report, as we may find out whether Yellen’s dovish tone is the one that will hold the day or whether some of the more hawkish Federal Reserve Governors are the ones who have it all pegged properly.

With only a single position set for expiration this week and time running out on the week, I don’t expect to do much today, but will hopefully be in a position tomorrow to either see an assignment or get to make a rollover.

It’s not too likely that in the day ahead of the Employment Situation report that too many will really stick their necks out, since even among those who should know the best, there’s lots of disagreement over the speed and intensity at which our economy is progressing.

It’s probably not a great idea to take sides when the really smart people can’t be in agreement.

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Daily Market Update – March 30, 2016 (Close)

Did anyone really expect Janet Yellen to be so dovish yesterday?

Based upon the reaction of markets all around the world, the answer to that question has to be that her tone was really unexpected.

Why investors would really totally disregard a longer term view of that dovishness is curious.

Basically, what Yellen had said was that the US economy, and perhaps at this point, more importantly, world economies weren’t chugging along strongly enough to really warrant what the FOMC has been hoping to do for quite some time.

That can’t really be the kind of news that can sustain a market’s move higher.

But maybe everything really is all relative. Maybe we’re still the best house in a worsening global neighborhood.

But still, not only is the strength that we have all been expecting to see just not materializing, it is also pointing out just how flawed either the FOMC’s crystal ball is or just how they’ve been getting ready to implement the wrong strategy.

Obviously, those two are related, but it would make a reasonable person question just how special the FOMC is when it comes to forecasting and setting monetary policy.

The same monkey who can pick stocks better than 90% of all professionals could probably just as well serve on the FOMC.

This morning’s futures are again pointing higher after yesterday’s rally and for the second day in a row, it is beginning to appear as if stocks and oil may go off in their own directions.

Again, as long as that direction takes stocks higher and oil goes lower, I’m all for that.

With this morning’s early rally I would be fine with just being able to see either a rollover or assignment of this week’s lone expiring position, but i think that i would rather get a chance to roll it over and keep collecting the premium.

I still have my eye on some of those positions that are ex-dividend on the Monday of next week, but it is again looking like a very quiet week for trading.

As long as asset value goes higher, especially if keeping up or exceeding the market, while continuing to collect some dividends, I’m OK with that, but would still prefer to do some more active trading.

The passivity is annoying, but again, it really should be the bottom line that’s the ultimate measure and not the ability to feed my beast and make trade after trade.

Although, in a perfect world….you can have it all.

At least there was some chance to sell some calls today, but it meant using as long a term contract as I have sold in a long, long time.

Still, income is income, especially if there’s no reason to believe that there won’t be more ups and downs along the way. This way, at least there’s something to make it a little more worthwhile.

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Daily Market Update – March 30, 2016 (7:30 AM )

Did anyone really expect Janet Yellen to be so dovish yesterday?

Based upon the reaction of markets all around the world, the answer to that question has to be that her tone was really unexpected.

Why investors would really totally disregard a longer term view of that dovishness is curious.

Basically, what Yellen had said was that the US economy, and perhaps at this point, more importantly, world economies weren’t chugging along strongly enough to really warrant what the FOMC has been hoping to do for quite some time.

That can’t really be the kind of news that can sustain a market’s move higher.

Not only is the strength that we have all been expecting to see just not materializing, but it is also pointing out just how flawed either the FOMC’s crystal ball is or just how they’ve been getting ready to implement the wrong strategy.

Obviously, those two are related, but it would make a reasonable person question just how special the FOMC is when it comes to forecasting and setting monetary policy.

The same monkey who can pick stocks better than 90% of all professionals could probably just as well serve on the FOMC.

This morning’s futures are again pointing higher after yesterday’s rally and for the second day in a row, it is beginning to appear as if stocks and oil may go off in their own directions.

Again, as long as that direction takes stocks higher and oil goes lower, I’m all for that.

With this morning’s early rally I would be fine with just being able to see either a rollover or assignment of this week’s lone expiring position, but i think that i would rather get a chance to roll it over and keep collecting the premium.

I still have my eye on some of those positions that are ex-dividend on the Monday of next week, but it is again looking like a very quiet week for trading.

As long as asset value goes higher, especially if keeping up or exceeding the market, while continuing to collect some dividends, I’m OK with that, but would still prefer to do some more active trading.

The passivity is annoying, but again, it really should be the bottom line that’s the ultimate measure and not the ability to feed my beast and make trade after trade.

Although, in a perfect world….you can have it all.

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