June | 2016 | TheAcsMan

Jun62016

Dashboard – June 6 – 10, 2016

MONDAY: All ears will be on Janet Yellen today as she tries to dance around Friday’s abysmal Employment Situation Report without scaring anyone. The rest of the week has little of interest as the FOMC meets the following week, but it looks like a rate hike will be off the table at that meeting

TUESDAY: The market seemed to like Yellen’s hedging yesterday and the feeling is continuing as the morning’s futures are unfolding. Undoubtedly, traders still prefer the idea of a gift from the FOMC rather than an economy that’s actually humming along

WEDNESDAY: Markets gave up some of Monday’s Yellen inspired confusing optimism near the end of the day. This morning’s futures look flat, but standing 1% below all time highs, that’s not a bad place to be for any kind of big move. Guessing the direction is the tricky part, though.

THURSDAY: With 3 straight days of gains now leaving us less than 1% from S&P 500 highs, today may be a day of rest ahead of next week’s FOMC and no other real news between now and then.

FRIDAY:. Yesterday ending the 3 day gaining streak and it looks as if that decline may accelerate to close the week, as oil again takes center stage and is sharply lower

“SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Jun42016

Weekend Update – June 5, 2016

TheAcsManWeekend Update

While so many people are still confused over the “Transgender Bathroom” issue, the real confusion came from this week’s Employment Situation Report.

With the odds of an interest rate hike by the FOMC’s June meeting seemingly increasing every day, you would really have to believe that the FOMC knew what was going to be in the economic news cards.

The increasing hawkish talk all seemed to be preparing us for a rate hike in just 2 weeks. Judging by the previous week’s market performance you would certainly have been of the belief that traders were finally at personal peace with the certainty of that increase.

The concept of being at personal peace is confusing to some.

I’m personally confused as to how it could have taken so long to see the obvious, unless we’re talking about stocks, interest rates and investor’s reactions.

What I find ironic is that the proposal for all inclusive bathrooms is really age old, at least at the NYSE, when there was a recent time that there was only a need for a single sex bathroom, anyway.

Just like many of us know, what a great degree of certainty, which camp we belong to when nature beckons, the lines seemed to be increasingly drawn with regard to interest rates.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

Jun32016

Week in Review – May 30 – June 3, 2016

TheAcsManWeek in Review

Option to Profit

Week in Review

May 30 – JUNE 3, 2016

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
0 / 0	0	1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0	4

Weekly Up to Date Performance

May 30 – June 3, 2016

This may have been the week that the market grew up, but then realized that the adults in the room had no clue of what was going on.

That’s because they embraced the idea of higher interest rates coming as soon as in 3 weeks after having taken the bait laid out by FOMC members with all of their hawkish talk.

Instead, Friday’s Employment Situation Report didn’t exactly paint a picture of a vibrant and expanding economy.

Anyway, I was too unsure about much of anything this week and made no new opening position trades.

As opposed to last week’s specacular market performance, this week was fairly mediocre, saved only by a series of comebacks that avoided erasing all of the previous week’s gains.

The S&P 500 ended the week finishing completely unchanged both an unadjusted and adjusted basis.

But still, there was a little good news as there was one rollover, one assignment and 4 ex-dividend positions.

On top of that, existing positions ended the week 1.8% higher than the S&P 500.

With one new assignments on the week those positions closed in 2016 were 8.3% higher, while the comparable performance for the S&P 500 during the same holding periods has been 1.7% higher. That represents a 383.6% difference in return on closed positions. That would be much more impressive if there were many more closed positions in 2016, but that just hasn’t been the case.

The market ended up the week going absolutely nowhere.

That was much better than the direction it had been headed during 3 of the week’s 4 trading days.

In those three days there were some pretty large losses, but if not completely erased on any of those days, they were greatly reduced.

The most surprising of the 3 days was the closing day of the week.

The market really didn’t like the disappointing Employment Situation Report, but it acquitted itself nicely as it prepared for a weekend of wondering just what is really going on.

I have no clue, nor any real idea of whether the FOMC is playing mind games with everyone, but am pleased with the week.

In addition to having more money, on paper, anyway, than the previous week, there was enough to keep me satisfied with both income flow and generation of some cash available for re-investing next week.

Now, with only a single position set to expire next week and a little bit of extra cash to spend, I also know that there are 6 ex-dividend positions to satisfy some of that thirst for cash.

With the likelihood of an interest rate increase coming in June pretty small and with earnings out of the way
, for the most part, there’s not too much to drive stocks, other than perhaps oil or some unexpectedly good or bad news from China.

I wouldn’t mind spending some money next week, but don’t really feel compelled with all of those ex-dividend positions.

I wouldn’t mind just being able to rollover the one expiring position next week and then simply see what the end of the June 2016 cycle will have to offer.

Of course, that is unless the FOMC really surprises everyone in the days before that expiration.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):

New Positions Opened: none

Puts Closed in order to take profits: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: Holly Frontier

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle: none

New STO: none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold: none

Calls Assigned: MRO

Calls Expired: none

Puts Assigned: none

Stock positions Closed to take profits: none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: MOS (5/31 $0.275), ANF (6/1 $0.20), BAC (6/1 $0.05), COH (6/1 $0.34)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: BBY (6/10 $0.28), HPQ (6/6 $0.12),KSS (6/6 $0.50), NEM (6/7 $0.025), GM (6/8 $0.38), WY (6/8 $0.31)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts: AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO, CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)

* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.

Jun32016

Daily Market Update – June 3, 2016

TheAcsManDaily Market Update

Daily Market Update – June 3, 2016 (7:00 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: HFC *, MRO *

Rollovers: none

Expirations: none

** Even if in the money and bound for assignment, it is possible that I may decide to rollover these positions

The following were ex-dividend this week: MOS (5/31 $0.275), ANF (6/1 $0.20), BAC (6/1 $0.05), COH (6/1 $0.34)

The following will be ex-dividend next week: BBY (6/10 $0.28), HPQ (6/6 $0.12),KSS (6/6 $0.50), NEM (6/7 $0.025), GM (6/8 $0.38), WY (6/8 $0.31)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made by 3:30 PM EDT

Jun22016

Daily Market Update – June 2, 2016

TheAcsManDaily Market Update

Daily Market Update – June 2, 2016 (7:00 AM)

Tomorrow is the day that many have been waiting for.

It seems that for about the past year or so, every upcoming Employment Situation Report is given the same label.

Each one is referred to as the most important Employment Situation Report since the previous one.

Every now and then there may be some truth to the hyperbole.

My guess is that if tomorrow’s number comes in strong, investors will rally the market, maybe even approaching or exceeding the previous high on the S&P 500.

That would be a real affirmation of the way the market has seemed to come to accept the prospect of a rate hike coming with the June 2016 FOMC meeting.

After that, it’s anyone’s guess what happens when the FOMC finally does make a decision.

Will it be a repeat of December?

But what if the FOMC delays a decision even if the numbers are good or what if the numbers don’t seem to support an increase in just a couple of weeks?

Then it’s really a guessing game.

In that case, the market may simply go back to what it has done for most of 2016 and just follow oil, although the correlation has been getting weaker lately.

Between now and the FOMC Statement there will be a number of Federal Reserve Governors speaking their minds, including the most important one of all, but they have all been sending such mixed messages that’s it’s really hard to know whether the various members of the Federal Reserve are truly expressing their opinions or just sending test balloons out.

That’s what happens when the Federal reserve gets too concerned about stock markets and loses focus and maybe its ability to have an objective approach to analysis and action.

For me, my analysis is that mere mortals can’t know what is even reasonable probability of occurring and my actions show how ambivalent and uncertain I am.

The market, though, as measured by Volatility, seems very certain, as volatility is so very low.

That usually means the market is heading for a surprise.

Just like after December’s decision, maybe.

I’m just about this week’s ex-dividend positions and perhaps an opportunity to get either assignments or rollovers of both positions expiring this week.

Two positions is still a paltry number, but anything in play is either a means for more income production or more for building up cash reserves, so I’m hoping some rational thought holds up until this week comes to its end.