Monthly Archives: April 2016

Daily Market Update – April 6, 2016 (Close)

Monday gave a tiny clue that maybe the dovish words of the previous week from the big boss may not be enough to sustain investor’s optimistic mood.

Yesterday was some more confirmation of that and today there may be even more.

That’s because there are 2 Federal Reserve Governors speaking today, one of whom we haven’t heard from very much, but there is some speculation that she’s more hawkish than she is dovish.

But maybe more importantly, sandwiched between those two speeches, will be the release of the recent FOMC minutes.

In that release there may have been some possibility of a glimpse as to just how much dissension there may be on the FOMC and could cast Yellen’s dovishness last week into a different light.

Even as prices started looking more attractive yesterday, I still could find no compelling reason to part with any money.

I had a little bit of uneasiness on Monday and even with futures up slightly this morning, there wasn’t very much reason to think that there’s anything right around the corner to let stocks recapture their performance of the final 6 weeks of the first quarter of 2016.

Instead, I think there’s plenty of reason to believe that we’re now at the beginning of a new pattern of ups and downs.

Rather than the 5% moves every 3 months or so for 2012 through most of 2015, we may be back to seeing more regular 10% moves.

If the final quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 are any indication, there should be lots more of those large moves that had been unseen for years.

I didn’t expect to be doing very much today, although with a single position up for expiration, I did consider rolling it over if it gets to a reasonable spread to make it worthwhile.

As the market eventually found some footing with oil up 5% and the FOMC minutes not divulging any great hawkish sentiment, I just watched. Sometimes it’s alright just to go for the ride.

Ultimately, I’m even ready to write next week off and am more excited about what may come down the path the following week as earnings season begins again.

It will be very interesting to see how the financials lead off the new earnings season and their guidance, particularly as interest rates head exactly in the opposite direction of where just about everyone had predicted.

It’s so hard to imagine that those rates could possibly stay this low, but then again, no one thought that oil would go as low as it did and stay there for as long as it has.

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Daily Market Update – April 6, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Monday gave a tiny clue that maybe the dovish words of the previous week from the big boss may not be enough to sustain investor’s optimistic mood.

Yesterday was some more confirmation of that and today there may be even more.

That’s because there are 2 Federal Reserve Governors speaking today, one of whom we haven’t heard from very much, but there is some speculation that she’s more hawkish than she is dovish.

But maybe more importantly, sandwiched between those two speeches, will be the release of the recent FOMC minutes.

In that release may be some glimpse as to just how much dissension there may be on the FOMC and could cast Yellen’s dovishness last week into a different light.

Even as prices started looking more attractive yesterday, I still could find no compelling reason to part with any money.

I had a little bit of uneasiness on Monday and even with futures up slightly this morning, there isn’t very much reason to think that there’s anything right around the corner to let stocks recapture their performance of the final 6 weeks of the first quarter of 2016.

Instead, I think there’s plenty of reason to believe that we’re now at the beginning of a new pattern of ups and downs.

Rather than the 5% moves every 3 months or so for 2012 through most of 2015, we may be back to seeing more regular 10% moves.

If the final quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 are any indication, there should be lots more of those large moves that had been unseen for years.

I don’t expect to be doing very much today, although with a single position up for expiration, I may consider rolling it over if it gets to a reasonable spread to make it worthwhile.

Ultimately, I’m even ready to write next week off and am more excited about what may come down the path the following week as earnings season begins again.

It will be very interesting to see how the financials lead off the new earnings season and their guidance, particularly as interest rates head exactly in the opposite direction of where just about everyone had predicted.

It’s so hard to imagine that those rates could possibly stay this low, but then again, no one thought that oil would go as low as it did and stay there for as long as it has.

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Daily Market Update – April 5, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday gave a tiny clue that maybe the dovish words of the previous week from the big boss may not be enough to sustain investor’s optimistic mood.

This week started off with a voting member of the FOMC coming off as being much more hawkish than Janet Yellen was last week.

The market didn’t like that, but it wasn’t fully revulsed.

Even falling oil didn’t grease the slide downward too much.

All in all, it was a fairly mild kind of loss.

This morning, however, that loss in the futures trading was more pronounced, maybe even more than it should be relative to oil’s early decline in its trading.

This week there isn’t very much of substance to warrant moving the markets, so it may end up being a battle of words, going from hawk to dove and maybe back again.

The market has had a history over the past few years of latching onto those words coming from various members of the Federal Reserve as if each one had the ultimate say on policy and future action.

Just as quickly as one Federal Reserve Governor would express and opinion and the market would follow suit, you could easily see an opposing opinion the very next day and the market again following suit.

So we’ll see what this week brings as only the earnings season, which begins in 2 weeks, may actually bring something of note into the equation.

I watched yesterday and as opposed to many days when I actually do float trades out there, I had none placed yesterday and I ended up placing none today, either.

I had an uneasy feeling during most of yesrerday expecting a further drop, even as some prices for positions in focus this week were beginning to look better and better.

But they still weren’t looking good enough.

This morning’s futures trading made some of those look even better, so it was understandably a little bit harder to resist as this morning got started.

But it was still pretty easy to resist.

Especially when taking in the bigger picture. When you do that you do have to be aware that for the previous 6 weeks many stocks marched higher, without testing support or in some cases taking much of a rest.

This may be a time to take rest or to test support and I’m not certain I want to test either, a I think going forward we are much more likely to see those 5-10% market drops that were so rare, for about the previous 4 years.

With that in mind, after today’s loss the S&P 500 is now up 0.07% on the year

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Daily Market Update – April 5, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday gave a tiny clue that maybe the dovish words of the previous week from the big boss may not be enough to sustain investor’s optimistic mood.

This week started off with a voting member of the FOMC coming off as being much more hawkish than Janet Yellen was last week.

The market didn’t like that, but it wasn’t fully revulsed.

Even falling oil didn’t grease the slide downward too much.

All in all, it was a fairly mild kind of loss.

This morning, however, that loss in the futures trading is more pronounced, maybe even more than it should be relative to oil’s early decline in its trading.

This week there isn’t very much of substance to warrant moving the markets, so it may end up being a battle of words, going from hawk to dove and maybe back again.

The market has had a history over the past few years of latching onto those words coming from various members of the Federal Reserve as if each one had the ultimate say on policy and future action.

Just as quickly as one Federal Reserve Governor would express and opinion and the market would follow suit, you could easily see an opposing opinion the very next day and the market again following suit.

So we’ll see what this week brings as only the earnings season, which begins in 2 weeks, may actually bring something of note into the equation.

I watched yesterday and as opposed to many days when I actually do float trades out there, I had none placed yesterday.

I had an uneasy feeling during most of the day expecting a further drop, even as some prices for positions in focus this week were beginning to look better and better.

But they still weren’t looking good enough.

This morning’s futures trading may make some of those look even better, so it may be a little bit harder to resist.

However, in the bigger picture, you do have to be aware that for the previous 6 weeks many stocks marched higher, without testing support or in some cases taking much of a rest.

This may be a time to take rest or to test support and I’m not certain I want to test either, a I think going forward we are much more likely to see those 5-10% market drops that were so rare, for about the previous 4 years.

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Daily Market Update – April 4, 2016 (Close)

This week could be an interesting one.

There’s not too much going on in terms of economic news other than Tuesday’s JOLTS release, but we may get to see just how important words really are.

This week there are lots of Federal Reserve Governors out there giving speeches and it will also be the week to get a closer glimpse at what was said, or at least what the tone of the previous FOMC Meeting may have been.

Lately there has been lots and lots of mixed messages being sent from members of the Federal Reserve and that had been confusing the stock market.

Last week, the market elected to go with Janet Yellen’s re-discovery of the words a dove might say, but this week there could be much more of the opposite kind, maybe even some coming from closet hawks, such as Loretta Mester.

The other thing that may be of interest is whether oil and stocks are finally going to break their relationship.

That would be nice, unless oil decides to start moving higher again.

As it would turn out, those thoughts this morning were more prescient than my thoughts usually turn out to be.

Eric Rosengren, the Boston Federal reserve President and a voting member of the FOMC came out with some hawkish comments, giving the impression that those rate hikes  were coming sooner than last week’s traders may have been led to believe.

On top of that, oil slid some more.

Still, stocks weren’t down very much considering what could have been.

With a few ex-dividend positions this week and a single position in range for a rollover and maybe even an assignment, despite having some income stream already for the week, I wouldn’t mind adding to it.

That was the same situation last week, but I ended up just being happy about selling some calls on uncovered positions, making that single rollover and collecting some dividends.

I would like to break out of the “no new positions opened” funk of 2016, but given the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the first quarter, it will be interesting to see how the second quarter proceeds.

We got off to a good start after the market decided that the Employment Situation Report news wasn’t as bad as initially believed, but there’s really nothing for the next two weeks to give any confidence about anything.

More dovish words might help, or maybe some softness in the economy would help, for those still equating bad with good.

What I’ll be looking for really begins in 2 weeks, as earnings season starts again.

It has been a long time since true earnings and not those artificially inflated by stock buybacks did anything to move markets forward.

At some point, there has to be some good news on both the top and bottom lines as more and more people are heading back to work, or even beginning once again to look for a job.

While I don’t mind spending money this week, I won’t be profligate, for certain and am likely to want to look at a weekly play, if only to have a better chance to recycle the money the following week.

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