Dashboard – March 14 – 18, 2016

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – March 14, 2016 (9:30 AM)

It’s hard to believe that after such an abysmal start to 2016 that the market is almost close to the breakeven point.

There’s no doubt that the climb has been completely in line with the move higher in oil futures.

No other story has really carried any weight in 2016.

China, interest rates and anything else that may have popped up last year, especially acting to bring markets lower, have just not appeared on the radar screen this year.

What we have had this year have simply been large and basically fundamental free moves in oil in one direction and then the next. That has led to equally large and directionless movement in stocks.

That is, up until about 2 weeks ago when the direction in the price of oil has been mostly higher, despite an occasional dip lower or an intra-day reversal.

This week, though, we may get a little respite from oil as the FOMC Statement is released and there is a Janet Yellen press conference to follow.

Most don’t expect a hike in interest rates at this meeting, but the market doesn’t necessarily need anything tangible to blow things out of proportion.

Simple nuances or slight changes in wording in the statement itself could lead to one reaction and then the more nuanced words during Yellen’s prepared statement and her responses to questions afterward could lead to even more over-reaction.

Lately, the dovish Yellen hasn’t always sounded dovish and she hasn’t been able to give stock markets the same kind of euphoria that she did earlier in her tenure, but you never know what’s in store.

maybe even a rate hike?

I would just like to have some opportunity to make money this week or to raise money.

I would love to see the market continue higher just to get those opportunities. Actually, it wouldn’t even take the market’s move higher to make me happy. Just some specific stocks, especially if I can get to sell some new calls.

With a few ex-dividend positions this week and a couple of opportunities to rollover or see assignments, I’d love to supplement whatever income already seems likely with some more.

Greedy? Maybe, but not overly so. All I want is a little bit more at a time.


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Dashboard – March 14 – 18, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   Maybe oil takes a back seat this week as the FOMC Statement is released and Janet Yellen holds a press conference. With no one expecting a change in rate policy we may get an idea of how far ahead the Federal Reserve’s crystal ball can see

TUESDAY:  We may be back to normal today as oil is down considerably and stock futures are following, as the FOMC begins their meeting.

WEDNESDAY: In the hours before yet another FOMC meeting that is being the described as “the most important in some time” markets didn’t have their usual pre-celebration the day before and are looking as if they’ll start the day off flat

THURSDAY: Stock futures have been all over the place this morning, while oil moves moderately higher. In the meantime, traders in stocks, metals and bonds can ponder what yesterday’s FOMC Statement release and Janet Yellen’s comments really mean as far as the health of the US economy goes.

FRIDAY:

 

 

 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 





 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Summary

  

Weekend Update – March 13, 2016

While most see virtually no chance of an interest rate increase announcement at this week’s FOMC meeting, it is expected that a June or July rate hike has a 50% chance of occurrence.

Stock market investors may like certainty, but traders often like the volatility that arises from uncertainty.

In this case, however, as there may be increasing certainty of a rate hike, time may be running out for traders who have generally reveled in a low rate environment and lashed out when threatened with rate increases.

For one group time may be running out, but for another their time may be coming. That could make the next 3 months interesting as positioning one’s self for advantage in anticipation of events may be a reasonable idea.

That’s not to say, though, that the past 3 months haven’t been interesting and haven’t offered opportunities for re-positioning. So far, 2016 has been a tale of two markets, with a sharp dividing line at February 11th.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

 

 

Week in Review – March 7 – 11, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

MARCH 7 – 11, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
1  /  1 1 1 0   /   0 0   /   0 0 6

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

March 7 – 11,  2016


No matter how each week ends, it’s still pretty clear that all that matters was, is and maybe always will be, oil.

Seems like I’ve said that more than just a few times, because I actually said exactly the same thing last week and very similar words in previous weeks.

This past week again saw multiple examples, including multiple examples of intra-day reversals in oil and then the obligatory intra-day reversals in the stock market.

This week did have another rare event, which was the opening of a new position.

That new position was 1.9% higher on the week, finishing 0.8% higher than both the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500, as the latter was still a nice  1.2% higher, continuing a series of nicely performing weeks.

While there was some significant give back in the advance in commodities this week, it continues to be nice seeing portfolio values climb, especially when that performance exceeds the market, as it did again this week and continues to build on its relative out-performance for all of 2016.

Also feeling good was the ability to sell calls on another uncovered position and seeing some more become candidates as there’s lots of catch up going on.

The key is whether that catch up will continue to continue.


While oil continued to be center stage, there really was nothing else of interest going on for the week.

Following some steep climbs higher over the previous 2 weeks, commodities gave quite a bit back this week, but the market’s rally did broaden a little.

Next week comes the potential for some big news as there’s another FOMC Statement release and a Chairman’s press conference to follow.

That combination often has a way of making things pop, but its really uncertain what may be said, just as it’s really uncertain what the reaction could be, because it’s also not clear how we are willing to treat good economic news at the moment.

I think that it should be treated as welcome news, but that doesn’t really matter. The heat of the moment is all that really will matter.

There’s not too much likelihood of any change in interest rates next week, but you never know what minor change in wording can trigger fear or exhilaration.

I was just happy this week to actually make some trades and generate some revenue.

That was in addition to another nice week for ex-dividend positions, which slows down some next week, with only 3 ex-dividend stocks to contribute to the cash accumulation effort.

Next week is also the end of the March 2016 option cycle and there are only 2 positions sets to expire, so it’s not likely to be a very busy trading week.

With having used longer options the past few months the expiring ones are spread out more than before in a hope to buy time for continued price climbs and to get paid a little extra by waiting, in the form of premiums and dividends.

As long as there continues to be some relative out-performance and better yet absolute performance to the upside, I don’t really mind less trading, but I really do like it when positive moves are accompanied by more trading.

By my historical trading, three trades in a week is far from a busy week, but if 2016 is going to be the standard, well, then I’m absolutely exhausted.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  GM

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: GM

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: IP

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: none

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions   HPE (3/7 $0.06), HPQ (3/7 $0.06), KSS (3/7 $0.50), NEM (3/8 $0.03), GM (3/9 $0.38), M (3/11 $0.36)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  BBY (3/15 $0.28), JOY (3/16 $0.01),  LVS (3/18 $0.72)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Daily Market Update – March 11, 2016

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – March 11, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  none

Expirations:  GM

The following were ex-dividend this week;  HPE (3/7 $0.06), HPQ (3/7 $0.12), KSS (3/7 $0.50), NEM (3/8 $0.03), GM (3/9 $0.38), M (3/11 $0.36)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  BBY (3/15 $0.28), JOY (3/16 $0.01), LVS (3/18 $0.72)

Trades, if any, will be attempted be made prior to 3:30 PM EST


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