Monthly Archives: February 2016

Daily Market Update – February 24, 2016 (Close)

Everyone knows that at some point things are going to change.

Ar some point oil is going to start moving consistently higher.

Also, at some point, the market will stop following oil.

At least it will stop following in the same direction.

The questions are when all of this happens and particularly when does the stock  disassociate itself from its direct relationship to oil?

Hopefully, the answer to that last question is that the stock market makes that disassociation fairly late after oil has started its reversal.

For all anyone knows, today may have marked the reversal in oil as oil reversed its sharp decline and itself closed higher on the day and the market did precisely the same in very impressive fashion.

But if the stock market comes to the realization that an increase in the price of oil is bad for growing consumer participation then we end up with the worst of all worlds.

That would mean that the market followed oil lower and at some point started going lower as oil went higher.

This morning, though, it looked as if the world that we’ve come to know was still intact.

Just as yesterday oil futures carried the market sharply lower, this morning oil futures were again carrying the market sharply lower.

If the early futures trading in oil had held, it would have marked a 2 day decline of nearly 10%. Fortunately, while oil and stocks have been traveling in the same direction for far too long, the magnitudes haven’t been in a one to one relationship.

That mid-day reversal helped both oil and stocks a lot.

After today it looks even more as if this week is going to end up being a very, very quiet one.

Hopes that I had on Monday of being able to sell some calls this week on uncovered positions are getting less and less likely of becoming reality, although the action this afternoon still gives some hope.

But with a little bit of cash in hand, I still don’t feel compelled to put it to work in what appear to be bargains.

At least not until there’s real reason to believe that those bargains are going to be transitory.

The previous week’s worth of gains has by far been the best for the past 3 months, but even weekly options couldn’t have withstood the pressures of the market’s need to return those mid-week gains.

So, for now, it’s more sitting and waiting for some evidence that there is a reason to feel some sense of optimism.

There don’t appear to be any catalysts awaiting, but we also need to get rid of some over hangs, like the fear of another interest rate increase.

Maybe Friday’s GDP release will help us move on.

But I doubt that will be the case so quickly.

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Daily Market Update – February 24, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Everyone knows that at some point things are going to change.

Ar some point oil is going to start moving consistently higher.

Also, at some point, the market will stop following oil.

At least it will stop following in the same direction.

The questions are when all of this happens and particularly when does the stock  disassociate itself from its direct relationship to oil?

Hopefully, the answer to that last question is that the stock market makes that disassociation fairly late after oil has started its reversal.

If the stock market comes to the realization that an increase in the price of oil is bad for growing consumer participation then we end up with the worst of all worlds.

That would mean that the market followed oil lower and at some point started going lower as oil went higher.

This morning, though, it looks as if the world that we’ve come to know is still intact.

Just as yesterday oil futures carried the market sharply lower, this morning oil futures are again carrying the market sharply lower.

If the early futures trading in oil holds, it would mark a 2 day decline of nearly 10%. Fortunately, while oil and stocks have been traveling in the same direction for far too long, the magnitudes haven’t been in a one to one relationship.

It looks as if this week is going to end up being a very, very quiet one.

Hopes that I had on Monday of being able to sell some calls this week on uncovered positions are getting less and less likely of becoming reality.

With a little bit of cash in hand, I still don’t feel compelled to put it to work in what appear to be bargains.

At least not until there’s real reason to believe that those bargains are going to be transitory.

The previous week’s worth of gains has by far been the best for the past 3 months, but even weekly options couldn’t have withstood the pressures of the market’s need to return those mid-week gains.

So, for now, it’s more sitting and waiting for some evidence that there is a reason to feel some sense of optimism.

There don’t appear to be any catalysts awaiting, but we also need to get rid of some over hangs, like the fear of another interest rate increase.

Maybe Friday’s GDP release will help us move on.

But I doubt that will be the case so quickly.

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Daily Market Update – February 23, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was just like almost all of the rest of the days in 2016 and for many in 2015, too.

Oil went higher.

So stocks went higher.

Why oil went higher is anyone’s guess, as it was actually more than 7% higher at one point yesterday, with absolutely no change in anything in the supply – demand part of the equation.

While precious metals were lower yesterday, there was also a rebound in commodity prices, very notably in copper.

Those commodity price increases, if sustained, could be a big part of a justification to institute another interest rate increase.

Commodity cycles are often where it all begins, but there also has to be consumer demand and consumer ability to actually pay for the things that they demand.

With wages moving higher and unemployment falling and rents rising, you can see a scenario where demand for homes increases and basic building commodities follow.

Ordinarily the stock market would pounce on that kind of early news of an economy heating up, but recent past history says otherwise.

Maybe Friday’s GDP report will shed some light on what the consumer is demanding and paying for.

This morning the market looked as if it is going to give back some of yesterday’s gains, but again, 2 steps back for every 3 forward isn’t a bad way to get up the mountain.

That was the formula used last week and it wouldn’t be a bad idea to do the same this week if the summit is the goal.

While I’m not eager to trade when the market is showing a real move higher and prefer to do so on down days, I wouldn’t mind of few days of consolidation as an alternative and would make trades if some of the recent gains can be digested.

The fact that prices aren’t at the same bargain level that they were at a week ago doesn’t necessarily mean that they still aren’t at bargain levels, but a small sale would still be welcome or at least a slow down in the price increase.

Of course, today wasn’t really a small sale, but the market never had a chance.

Oil fell and the market fell.

It was that simple.

With that in mind, I don’t think that I’ll be doing much tomorrow, either, but I still wouldn’t have minded seeing some of yesterday’s big winners added to some of those gains, just to get a better opportunity to sell some calls on uncovered positions.

There were a number of trades that i was trying or at least hoping to make yesterday, but today wasn’t going to be the day, either.

Maybe tomorrow can become that day?

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Daily Market Update – February 23, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was just like almost all of the rest of the days in 2016 and for many in 2015, too.

Oil went higher.

So stocks went higher.

Why oil went higher is anyone’s guess, as it was actually more than 7% higher at one point yesterday, with absolutely no change in anything in te supply – demand part of the equation.

While precious metals were lower yesterday, there was also a rebound in commodity prices, very notably in copper.

Those commodity price increases, if sustained, could be a big part of a justification to institute another interest rate increase.

Commodity cycles are often where it all begins, but there also has to be consumer demand and consumer ability to actually pay for the things that they demand.

With wages moving higher and unemployment falling and rents rising, you can see a scenario where demand for homes increases and basic building commodities follow.

Ordinarily the stock market would pounce on that kind of early news of an economy heating up, but recent past history says otherwise.

Maybe Friday’s GDP report will shed some light on what the consumer is demanding and paying for.

This morning the market looks as if it is going to give back some of yesterday’s gains, but again, 2 steps back for every 3 forward isn’t a bad way to get up the mountain.

That was the formula used last week and it wouldn’t be a bad idea to do the same this week if the summit is the goal.

While I’m not eager to trade when the market is showing a real move higher and prefer to do so on down days, I wouldn’t mind of few days of consolidation as an alternative and would make trades if some of the recent gains can be digested.

The fact that prices aren’t at the same bargain level that they were at a week ago doesn’t necessarily mean that they still aren’t at bargain levels, but a small sale would still be welcome or at least a slow down in the price increase.

With that in mind, I don’t think that I’ll be doing much today, but wouldn’t mind seeing some of yesterday’s big winners add to some of those gains, just to get a better opportunity to sell some calls on uncovered positions.

There were a number of trades that i was trying or at least hoping to make yesterday, so maybe today or tomorrow can become the day.

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Daily Market Update – February 22, 2016 (Close)

This week doesn’t have too much on the economic news front until we get to Friday and the GDP is released.

That report may be more important than usual as last week’s Consumer Price Index was suggesting upward price pressures which could justify an increase in interest rates.

While the CPI’s increase was mostly from health care costs and rents, if the GDP shows much in the way of a consumer led increase in demand, we could be set for the next small interest rate increase.

Based on the way the market has been behaving, that wouldn’t be a very good thing.

This morning, though, the market was behaving as it has for quite some time.

It’s just moving along with oil.

This morning those oil futures were sharply higher and so were stocks, as they dutifully followed without real regard as to the implication of oil getting more and more expensive.

With a little bit of cash generated from last week’s assignment, the very first for 2016 I would have been interested in adding some new positions but not with an impending 200 point gain in the DJIA this morning that became the real thing all throughout the trading session.

There was never even the slightest pretense of erasing the gain that came right out of the chute with the opening bell.

With no ex-dividend positions this week and with no positions to be rolled over nor assigned, I would have liked to have gotten something done, though, to generate some income.

In the meantime, I didn’t mind watching the market continue to go higher, but I would still prefer that it do so like it did last week and take some time to breathe and digest the gains.

Those gains have been considerable over the past week and could use some digesting.

Otherwise, I’m prepared for a quiet week, but would still welcome any opportunity to sell some calls on uncovered positions, even if that continues to mean looking at more distant expiration dates and trying to lock in some volatility enhanced premiums, dividends and maybe some capital gains on those shares, as well.

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