Daily Market Update – October 1, 2015 (9:00 AM)
What the market has given or taken on one day hasn’t necessarily been the way the market acted the next day.
Sometimes that was a good thing and sometimes it wasn’t very good.
Today could have been a victory if the market could simply do as the futures were suggesting and just trade in an ambivalent way, following yesterday’s strong gain that happened to come after a one day breathing spell in the aftermath of Monday’s 300+ point loss.
Instead, it was a tale of two halves. The morning was just horrible, but almost precisely at Noon it turned around and erased almost every single bit of the morning’s loss. That turnaround came at the 1901 level on the S&P 500, which wasn’t really something that was appearing on anyone’s chart, but that’s where it turned on a dime.
That’s just the way things have been going as following the large plunge in August that took the market into correction territory, it’s just been a series of back and forth kind of days with very little net movement when all has been said and done.
Taking a little bit of a break today might also be a good thing considering that there’s not too much reason to want to stick your neck out too much ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report and would allow some opportunity to simply digest the gains from yesterday.
The shifting sands created by large moves in alternating directions just give no foundation for predictable movement and create an environment that’s really nothing different from a coin toss.
This week’s Employment SItuation Report may be the kind of data that could create some sort of foundation or break an existing one day. It may be more important than usual this month and could serve as some real fuel if it rekindles expectations of an interest rate hike or it could real dampen hopes for any reason for renewed buying.
Despite yesterday’s gain the S&P 500 is still slightly in correction territory and continues to straddle the line. Once the Employment Situation Report is out of the way next week begins another earnings season, that seems to have snuck up quickly and may begin to give some more tangible evidence of an improving economy and maybe the long awaited evidence of an oil dividend.
With a number of positions expiring tomorrow and none yet for next week, I would be equally happy with assignments or rollovers, but may want to take some pre-emptive measures for any positions that could become out of reach for either of those outcomes in the event of a strong downdraft tomorrow.
As long as volatility is keeping forward week premiums relatively higher than expiring week premiums there may be reason to take those pre-emptive steps and look for rollover opportunities today, rather than taking the risk of being taken out of contention tomorrow.
As is usually the case, it would be nice to have a mix of everything. New positions opened, rollovers, assignments, new call sales and dividends and there is still that chance this week, especially if there’s some good news forthcoming tomorrow and today doesn’t end up being a day that gives back yesterday’s gains.