Daily Market Update – September 24, 2015 (Close)
Other than Monday’s minor blip higher, there hasn’t been much of a reprieve from the disappointment that hit mid-way through Janet Yellen’s press conference last Thursday afternoon.
The implication was that the economy just wasn’t strong enough to warrant an increase in interest rates and investors, who had only very, very recently come to realize that an interest rate increase was a good thing just did what they so frequently do.
They over-reacted and continue to be in hysterical mode.
At least that’s what this morning’s pre-open futures were indicating.
Even as China closed their trading day with some strength and even as the FOMC indicated that they were now keeping an eye of global events, the outlook by investors remains pessimistic.
That could change tomorrow as the GDP is released.
A strong number could do wonders toward changing the mood on the trading floor, as even the slightest move lower this morning would take the S&P 500 back into correction territory, from which it had been emerging and then relapsing for nearly the past month.
Today’s move was less than just “slight,” but was much better than it had been during its depths.
Otherwise, there’s lots of economic data between today and the next FOMC Statement release which comes at the every end of October. Besides the basic economic news there will have been nearly 3 weeks of earnings reports as the next earnings season begins in just a few weeks, as well.
Conceivably there could be enough news supporting the idea that our economy could support that interest rate increase and there’s no doubt that the FOMC members took note of how the market expressed itself as finally being ready for that increase.
The wild card may end up being what will be happening in the global picture, particularly in China. Lots can happen in the month until the next FOMC meeting and that’s now part of the equation, or so it seems.
This morning looked as if it would be one to sit and watch and just hope that the new positions opened and expiring this week don’t get dragged down along with the rest of the market and get taken too far along. It would be great to see those new positions get assigned tomorrow, but the environment has become very challenging and there’s really not to much reason for it.
The US economy and the US stock market remain the best in the world and this should be where money flows as the rest of the world demonstrates itself to be a less reliable place to park money.
While I had been waiting, as had so many, for a correction for a long time, it feels as if the next phase can and should only be higher despite what may be occurring in the rest of the world.
This week I put my money where my mouth is and hope that it wasn’t a mistake to have spoken up.
As has been the only hope that has worked out lately, there’s always tomorrow.