Daily Market Update – July 14, 2015 (close)

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 14,  2015  (Close)

It looks as if the US stock market places greater value on a possible solution to the Greek debt crisis than it does to the agreement between the US and other nations with Iran over its nuclear programs.

Yesterday’s news from the EU and Greece helped to deliver a 200 point gain to the DJIA, while this morning’s news regarding the agreement with Iran had the futures trading virtually unchanged and left the market trading in a fauirly sedate fashion throughout the day.

Still, given the back and forth and the big give and take kind of moves over the past few weeks, even a flat day coming immediately after a 200 point climb could be considered a sort of victory, as the market has quickly gone from an intra-day 5% decline from its all time highs to now being less than 2% below those highs.

All during the course of the past week.

With news of the Iran deal greeting traders this morning and yesterday evening’s news of a proposed Chinese buyout of Micron Technolgies, bank earnings beginning today and tomorrow’s Congressional testimony from Janet Yellen, there’s enough going on to give markets plenty to ponder and digest.

Today it was neither ecstasy nor fear that dominated the market. Instead, it just cautiously moved higher after a tentative start to the day.

The initial earnings coming from the financial sector this morning were pointing in the right direction, although the financial sector’s performance  doesn’t necessarily mean much for the rest of the market. When banks are thriving and their earnings reflect those good times, the rest of the market can go in either direction. It’s when the financial sector releases earnings that are disappointing that you can reasonably well predict that everyone else will be following along in the same path.

So the early indication this morning at least offered some hope for things to come as companies may be in a position to report better than expected revenues thanks to a better than expected currency exchange rate. Additionally, with news of this morning’s Iran deal comes new pressure on the price of oil, which has already been under renewed pressure over the past 2 weeks.

Higher revenues and lower costs is a good way to see share prices move higher, especially if neither was really expected.

That combination could easily push the markets to new highs, especially if the efforts in China put a temporary lid on the sharp downward pressures that have been building in that market.

With a little bit of money to spend and a desire to see some additional income generated this week, I’m not resistant to trying to add any new positions this week, but would still continue to prefer some further advances and any possibility of rollovers or assignments of this week’s positions, although only one of the three may be in a position for either.

With what may be a pause, I’d be more inclined to spend that money, although you do have to be aware that lately there hasn’t been any kind of pattern in the overall market, other than there’s been no pattern. While the market may be taking a pause today, there’s as much reason to believe that the next move, maybe tomorrow’s move, can be much higher as it can be much lower.

As we await more earnings, perhaps Yellen’s testimony over two days beginning tomorrow can provide some optimism to send prices higher. The history of the Humphrey-Hawkings mandated testimony is that greater moves tend to come during the first day of testimony and Janet Yellen has been very much of a calming voice for markets, in general.

Hopefully, there will be a stream of good news for the rest of the week, or at least an absence of anything bad and maybe that will allow us to focus on some earnings fundamentals for a change.


Daily Market Update – July 14, 2015

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 14,  2015  (8:00 AM)

It looks as if the US stock market places greater value on a possible solution to the Greek debt crisis than it does to the agreement between the US and other nations with Iran over its nuclear programs.

Yesterday’s news from the EU and Greece helped to deliver a 200 point gain to the DJIA, while this morning’s news regarding the agreement with Iran has the futures trading virtually unchanged.

Still, given the back and forth and the big give and take kind of moves over the past few weeks, even a flat day coming immediately after a 200 point climb could be considered a sort of victory, as the market has quickly gone from an intra-day 5% decline from its all time highs to now being less than 2% below those highs.

All during the course of the past week.

With news of the Iran deal greeting traders this morning and yesterday evening’s news of a proposed Chinese buyout of Micron Technolgies, bank earnings beginning today and tomorrow’s Congressional testimony from Janet Yellen, there’s enough going on to give markets plenty to ponder and digest.

The initial earnings coming from the financial sector this morning are pointing in the right direction, although the financial sector’s performance  doesn’t necessarily mean much for the rest of the market. When banks are thriving and their earnings reflect those good times, the rest of the market can go in either direction. It’s when the financial sector releases earnings that are disappointing that you can reasonably well predict that everyone else will be following along in the same path.

So the early indication this morning at least offers some hope for things to come as companies may be in a position to report better than expected revenues thanks to a better than expected currency exchange rate. Additionally, with news of this morning’s Iran deal comes new pressure on the price of oil, which has already been under renewed pressure over the past 2 weeks.

Higher revenues and lower costs is a good way to see share prices move higher, especially if neither was really expected.

That combination could easily push the markets to new highs, especially if the efforts in China put a temporary lid on the sharp downward pressures that have been building in that market.

With a little bit of money to spend and a desire to see some additional income generated thius week, I’m not resistant to trying to add any new positions this week, but would still continue to prefer some further advances and any possibility of rollovers or assignments of this week’s positions, although only one of the three may be in a position for either.

With what may be a pause, I’d be more inclined to spend that money, although you do have to be aware that lately there hasn’t been any kind of pattern in the overall market, other than there’s been no pattern. While the market may be taking a pause today, there’s as much reason to believe that the next move, maybe tomorrow’s move, can be much higher as it can be much lower.

As we await more earnings, perhaps Yellen’s testimony over two days beginning tomorrow can provide some optimism to send prices higher. The histroy of the Humphrey=Hawkings mandated testimony is that greater moves tend to come during the first day of testimony and Janet Yellen has been very much of a calming voice for markets, in general.

Hopefully, there will be a stream of good news for the rest of the week, or at least an absence of anything bad and maybe that will allow us to focus on some earnings fundamentals for a change.


Daily Market Update – July 13, 2015 (Close)

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 13,  2015  (Close)

 

It’s always nice to wake up to start the week and seeing some nice gains.

Just to clarify that, sometimes you don’t want to see gains to start the week, though.

Like this week.

Although it’s nice waking up and finding out that you’re now worth more, sometimes you also understand that when you’re worth less there may be more opportunity ahead.

While it is good news that there seems to be an agreement on Greece’s debt, it would have been nice to see a market decline to begin the week to give some opportunity to add some new positions at bargain prices, as was the case last week.

It’s especially nice when those declines are sharp and very transitory. While that was the case last week, the moves were so pronounced and so diametric that it was especially good to be able to get out of those new positions unscathed and with some decent profits to show for it, even as the market ended up perfectly flat for the week.

With that Greek debt agreement appearing to be in place, although there are some suggestions that it’s an illusory one and the Chnese market, while not surging, having moved nicely higher, you might have expected more of an advance than we were seeing in our futures.

Happily, once the market started trading for real it had the same point of view..

A 125 move higher in the DJIA futures seemed absolutely tame by recent standards and it dis make me wonder how much staying power the market would have once the deal is dissected and once focus is cast on the next issue on the horizon. You can expect that there may be some of these ECB debt crisises to come along, although some countries, such as Spain have gotten their economies into better shape since the last crisis sweeping the EU a few years ago.

But today wasn’t the day for second guessing, even if the Greek deal isn’t entirely done yet, nor is it clearly one that will ensure that Greece can get itself onto more sound footing.

Since I don’t have too many positions set to expire this week as the July 2015 option cycle comes to its close, this would have been as good a week as any, for some decline and an opportunity to consider new positions, but I’m not about to complain about another 200 move higher.

With the morning’s sustained market strength I wouldn’t mind it if this became a week of adding some paper gains and maybe getting to see an assignment or two, although the latter is less likely.

My expectation, even with earnings season really beginning to get in gear this week with the financials reporting and Janet Yellen giving her required 2 day Congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday, is that it will be a slow trading week.

I expect to be doing a fair amount of watching, although I would be willing to spend down some of the small cash reserve. While I’d be willing, I’m not as willing as I was last week at this same time watching a decline in the making that made it all seem more inviting.

While I always like to see some action so that I can get some income generating trades executed, those have been fewer these past few weeks. When dividends are there t
o pick up the slack there’s a little less concern, but this is a week without much in the way of meaningful dividends, so not making those trades is more than just an annoyance.

Hopefully that annoyance will be offset by being able to wake up a few more mornings this week being a little bit richer and maybe even getting some more opportunities to sell calls on some uncoivered positions

Daily Market Update – July 13, 2015

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 13,  2015  (8:00 AM)

 

It’s always nice to wake up to start the week and seeing some nice gains.

Just to clarify that, sometimes you don’t want to see gains to start the week, though.

Like this week.

Although it’s nice waking up and finding out that you’re now worth more, sometimes you also understand that when you’re worth less there may be more opportunity ahead.

While it is good news that there seems to be an agreement on Greece’s debt, it would have been nice to see a market decline to begin the week to give some opportunity to add some new positions at bargain prices, as was the case last week.

It’s especially nice when those declines are sharp and very transitory. While that was the case last week, the moves were so pronounced and so diametric that it was especially good to be able to get out of those new positions unscathed and with some decent profits to show for it, even as the market ended up perfectly flat for the week.

With that Greek debt agreement appearing to be in place, although there are some suggestions that it’s an illusory one and the Chnese market, while not surging, having moved nicely higher, you might have expected more of an advance than we’re seeing in our futures, though.

A 125 move higher in the DJIA futures seems absolutely tame by recent standards and it does make me wonder how much staying power it will have once the deal is dissected and once focus is cast on the next issue on the horizon, as you can expect that there may be some of these ECB debt crisises to come along, although some countries, such as Spain have gotten their economies into better shape since the last crisis sweeping the EU a few years ago

Since I don’t have too many positions set to expire this week as the July 2015 option cycle comes to its close, this would have been as good a week as any, for some decline and an opportunity to consider new positions.

However, with the morning’s market strength I wouldn’t mind it if this became a week of adding some paper gains and maybe getting to see an assignment or two, although the latter is less likely.

My expectation, even with earnings season really beginning to get in gear this week with the financials reporting and Janet Yellen giving her required 2 day Congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday, is that it will be a slow trading week.

I expect to be doing a fair amount of watching, although I would be willing to spend down some of the small cash reserve. While I’d be willing, I’m not as willing as I was last week at this same time watching a decline in the making that made it all seem more inviting.

While I always like to see some action so that I can get some income generating trades executed, those have been fewer these past few weeks. When dividends are there to pick up the slack there’s a little less concern, but this is a week without much in the way of meaningful dividends, so not making those trades is more than just an annoyance.

Hopefully that annoyance will be offset by being able to wake up a few more mornings this week being a little bit richer

Dashboard – July 13 – 17, 2015

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   This week starts off with an agreement on Greece’s debt and without any further Chinese stock market melt down or melt up. Although given the continued strength of the Chinese market nicely higher this morning, you mght have expected a little more than 120 points higher on the DJIA futures

TUESDAY:   Initial earnings reported from the financial sector are looking positive, as earnings season really gets underway, but as the futures are taking a break from yesterday’s strong gain that was probably fueled by a deal on Greek debt relief

WEDNESDAY:  Looks like a quiet morning leading up to the beginning of Janet Yellen’s 2 days of Congressional testimony and answering questions of those grandstanding while  looking to make points back home and get sound bites for their next election campaigns

THURSDAY:  Yesterday was almost like a day off, with not even Yellen’s Humphrey-Hawkins Congressional testimony able to get things exciting. This morning the futures are pointing to a positive open along the lines of Tuesday and inching back toward record highs

FRIDAY:. It looks as if the week may want to come to a quiet end as the best week in a long time gets ready to come to a close, as does the July 2015 option cycle

 

 

 

 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

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