Monthly Archives: May 2015

Daily Market Update – May , 2015  (Close)

Yesterday, was as it should have been, a fairly quiet day, even though it did spend a bit of time in the triple digit gain arena.

Other than this week’s Employment Situation Report coming on Friday, there’s not too much to drive markets, as earnings reports are also now going to begin slowing down.It ended the day with a much more moderated gain and that looked as it will be the polar opposite to this morning, as the futures were setting up for a moderately lower day.

Again, there’s no news that should play much of a hand in shaping the day’s trading. Other than tomorrow’s ADP report, which is just a precursor to Friday’s Employment Situation Report, there’s nothing on the docket.

Even after a period of time when there was a quiet period on FOMC speeches, it’s a pretty quiet week on that end, as well.

At some point, especially if it continues heading in its recent direction, someone is going to take note of where bond traders have been taking the rate on the 10 Year Treasury. It’s still below that recent 2.3% high point from a couple of months ago, but it has gone about 15% higher in just a week. As it moves higher not only does it create more pressure in other interest sensitive areas, but it may finally start offering some competition for whatever uncommitted investment dollars are out there.

However, if you listen to the people at TD Ameritrade, it doesn’t seem as if there is that much un-invested money sitting in accounts, at least not for individual investors. On top of that, margin debt is at an all time high.

Take those bits of information together and you have less of a catalyst for upward move in stocks and the prospects that any move into bonds would have to come at the expense of money already invested in stocks.

So the burden of proof is definitely on the bulls, maybe even more than usual.

By the early afternoon, as the DJIA was at a triple digit loss, came the first suggestions that bonds may have been the source of the weakness being seen.

Maybe, but we’ll see where those rates keep going. It wasn’t too long ago that they did the same thing and then had to reverse course as it was getting more and more clear that the FOMC wasn’t going anywhere fast with any decision on raising rates.

With a couple of purchases yesterday, I think that i am done for the week. Not that I have the cash reserves to go on, but the rest of the week will likely be spent looking for any opportunity to generate some additional revenue. As always, the includes the need to keep fingers crossed and to hope for any of a few different outcomes.

Most of all, I would love to see those prayers answered with some assignments.Those are still looking a little bleak, so I may be willing to actually let the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF go, rather than rolling if it is in the money, as I’ve been doing repeatedly over the past few months.

With today’s negative opening looming and then becoming a reality, I was hopeful of seeing some isolated bumps in individual positions and would again have gladly taken any opportunity to generate some revenue from any uncovered positions.

Maybe tomorrow.

Daily Market Update – May , 2015  (9:30 AM)

Yesterday, was as it should have been, a fairly quiet day, even though it did spend a bit of time in the triple digit gain arena.

Other than this week’s Employment Situation Report coming on Friday, there’s not too much to drive markets, as earnings reports are also now going to begin slowing down.It ended the day with a much more moderated gain and that looks as it will be the polar opposite to this morning, as the futures are setting up for a moderately lower day.

Again, there’s no news that should play much of a hand in shaping the day’s trading. Other than tomorrow’s ADP report, which is just a precursor to Friday’s Employment Situation Report, there’s nothing on the docket.

Even after a period of time when there was a quiet period on FOMC speeches, it’s a pretty quiet week on that end, as well.

At some point, especially if it continues heading in its recent direction, someone is going to take note of where bond traders have been taking the rate on the 10 Year Treasury. It’s still below that recent 2.3% high point from a couple of months ago, but it has gone about 15% higher in just a week. AS it moves higher not only does it create more pressure in other interest sensitive areas, but it may finally start offering some competition for whatever uncommitted investment dollars are out there.

However, if you listen to the people at TD Ameritrade, it doesn’t seem as if there is that much un-invested money sitting in accounts, at least not for individual investors. On top of that, margin debt is at an all time high.

Take those bits of information together and you have less of a catalyst for upward move in stocks and the prospects that any move into bonds would have to come at the expense of money already invested in stocks.

So the burden of proof is definitely on the bulls, maybe even more than usual.

With a couple of purchases yesterday, I think that i am done for the week. Not that I have the cash reserves to go on, but the rest of the week will likely be spent looking for any opportunity to generate some additional revenue. As always, the includes the need to keep fingers crossed and to hope for any of a few different outcomes.

Most of all, I would love to see those prayers answered with some assignments.Those are still looking a little bleak, so I may be willing to actually let the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF go, rather than rolling if it is in the money, as I’ve been doing repeatedly over the past few months.

With today’s negative opening looming and not really in the market for any bargains, I’m just hopeful to see some isolated bumps in individual positions and would again gladly take any opportunity to generate some revenue from any uncovered positions.

Daily Market Update – May 4, 2015  (Close)

Other than this week’s Employment Situation Report coming on Friday, there’s not too much to drive markets, as earnings reports are also now going to begin slowing down.

The week should be a fairly boring one as far as inputs go, but you never know what the output is going to look like. At least last week had the kind of news events that could be expected to shake markets. This week, we will have to wait until Friday for events, but the shaking could still come at any time while markets teeter at their tops.

Today, despite flirting at some higher levels, it was still a fairly boring day, but at least some opportunities were there to be had.

Last week was somewhat rescued by Friday’s performance and the week ended with only a small loss, but still left the S&P 500 within about 0.4% of its all time high.

Close enough to be easily eclipsed today, e-ven with a fairly mediocre close.

Whatever the large moves were last week and there were those in both directions, there was little news or reason to account for the swings, other than by its very nature, swings move in opposite directions.

While the market has maintained its levels near those highs and actually built on them just a little, the prevailing question remains where the catalyst is coming from.

That’s always an ever-present question, but sometimes it’s harder to see answers. now is one of those times that it’s hard to see an answer.

In the longer term, that is the next earnings season, the catalyst might be the fact that we’ve been set up to have lowered expectations, but the bottom line could change for the better if the dollar weakens a little and top line revenues are enhanced.

But until that point it may be a mystery as to what leads us to the next level higher. Usually, it has to be the promise of growth and the latest promise of growth coming from lower oil prices hasn’t materialized, while in the meantime those prices have now begun edging higher.

The Employment Situation Report could give some reason to think that economic expansion is taking hold at a greater pace, but the past month was a disappointment. Since we’re pretty much assigned to interest rates going higher, a large number on new jobs creation shouldn’t frighten anyone away, but there aren’t too many indications that a really large number is in store for this month’s report.

With no assignments last week, but having had the good fortune of being able to make the rollover trades necessary, it was possible to create the week’s income stream. That was thanks to Friday’s recovery. But as a result of no cash recycling, I didn’t expect to be in the market to add many new positions this week, so I was a little surprised by actually adding 2 positions. I was also surprised that one of them was for next week’s expiration, since that reduced the chance of recycling money this week in order to be positioned to do something new the following week as the May 2015 option cycle will come to its close.

My hope is that there continues to be some opportunity to sell calls on existing uncovered positions and slowly attack that unwanted pile and see the market add to Friday’s gains so that the handful of positions expiring this week are at least
in position to be rolled over. Today, was just a teeny step in that direction, but every teeny bit is also welcome.

Ultimately, it’s whatever it takes to make the week’s income and hopefully have some more money at the bottom line for the efforts.

Daily Market Update – May 4, 2015  (8:30 AM)

Other than this week’s Employment Situation Report coming on Friday, there’s not too much to drive markets, as earnings reports are also now going to begin slowing down.

The week should be a fairly boring one as far as inputs go, but you never know what the output is going to look like. At least last week had the kind of news events that could be expected to shake markets. This week, we will have to wait until Friday for events, but the shaking could still come at any time while markets teeter at their tops.

Last week was somewhat rescued by Friday’s performance and the week ended with only a small loss, but still left the S&P 500 within about 0.4% of its all time high. Whatever the large moves were last week and there were those in both directions, there was little news or reason to account for the swings, other than by its very nature, swings move in opposite directions.

While the market has maintained its levels near those highs and actually built on them just a little, the prevailing question remains where the catalyst is coming from.

That’s always an ever-present question, but sometimes it’s harder to see answers. now is one of those times that it’s hard to see an answer.

In the longer term, that is the next earnings season, the catalyst might be the fact that we’ve been set up to have lowered expectations, but the bottom line could change for the better if the dollar weakens a little and top line revenues are enhanced.

But until that point it may be a mystery as to what leads us to the next level higher. Usually, it has to be the promise of growth and the latest promise of growth coming from lower oil prices hasn’t materialized, while in the meantime those prices have now begun edging higher.

The Employment Situation Report could give some reason to think that economic expansion is taking hold at a greater pace, but the past month was a disappointment. Since we’re pretty much assigned to interest rates going higher, a large number on new jobs creation shouldn’t frighten anyone away, but there aren’t too many indications that a really large number is in store for this month’s report.

With no assignments last week, but having had the good fortune of being able to make the rollover trades necessary, it was possible to create the week’s income stream. That was thanks to Friday’s recovery. But as a result of no cash recycling, I don’t expect to be in the market to add many new positions this week. Any new purchases are likely to look at expirations this week so that there is at least some chance of recycling money in order to be positioned to do something new the following week as the May 2015 option cycle will come to its close.

My hope is that there continues to be some opportunity to sell calls on existing uncovered positions and slowly attack that unwanted pile and see the market add to Friday’s gains so that the handful of positions expiring this week are at least in position to be rolled over.

Ultimately, it’s whatever it takes to make the week’s income and hopefully have some more money at the bottom line for the efforts.