Monthly Archives: June 2014

Daily Market Update – June 27, 2014 (8:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 6:00 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by noon on Sunday:

Today’s possible outcomes include:

Assignment:  LVS

Rollover:  BBBY (puts),  DOW, MA

Expiration:   C, EBAY, HFC, PFE

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

Daily Market Update – June 26, 2014 (Close)

Yesterday was really a day that had government imprints on just about everything from before the opening bell until after the closing bell.

It started with a government decision regarding oil exports that significantly hurt the refiners across the board.

Then came the Supreme Court decision that may have killed off Aereo and its technology while boosting the networks and local broadcasters.

Finally, there came an IRS ruling in favor of Iron Mountains quest to be considered a REIT. That battle and open question had been going on for at least three years and the sudden spike in its option premiums suggested that some kind of decision was forthcoming.

It would otherwise likely have been a very quiet day if not for those stories that continue this morning with allegations by the New York State Attorney General against Barclays and its “dark pools,” Most people would believe that whether a violation of the law or not, Barclays wouldn’t be the only one involved.

Like they say, there’s usually more than one cockroach, so that may explain some weakness to all of the others that wouldn’t be likely to let a good scheme go unused. They certainly wouldn’t let Barclays be the only one to prosper from doing something of questionable ethics or legality.

The latter two of yesterday’s decisions were known to be coming, it just wasn’t exactly clear when they would be announced, nor what the decisions would be. The oil exporting rules came as a complete surprise, not just in timing, but in content, as well.

Ultimately, whether you’re on the right side of the wrong side of a government decision it’s an unsettling way to go about things. You really can’t get any closer to pure gambling as you’re fully dependent on a decision that is going to move markets in one direction or another, with very little chance of leaving the stock unchanged.

Even worse, there are no leaks or well placed rumors to give any ideas of what is to come. Watching SBGI in the days before the decision was released was pretty laughable as the shares alternated between going higher and going lower on multiple occasions on an intraday basis. People were simply guessing and rushing to place their bets.

While that may have been the case for IRM and SBGI, it wasn’t really part of the equation for those with positions in the oil refiners. Doing a quick glance at four of the major refiners there was a market capitalization d
ecline of more than $10 billion on yesterday’s unanticipated news and then its unexpected content.

Today doesn’t seem as if yesterday’s theme will have legs, as it’s a new day and one beginning to appear as if it will have no catalysts nor any new big stories, save what may further develop from the Attorney General’s office.

Unfortunately, lately bad news and the over the top reactions are much slower in rebounding than I can remember during any upward moving market.

While government intervention is certainly needed it can raise havoc with markets whether through direct intervention or indirect. It’s much easier to navigate the markets when the intervention is below the radar and more geared toward creating a liquid and credible environment for trading.

Yesterday was a bit heavy handed. In the case of Aereo, it’s not even very clear that the Justices understand technology nor considered the history of the development of television, its transmission and reception. Their decision, as reflected in Justice Breyer’s eyes, was as much about definitions and drawing parallels to existing models as through an interpretation of the law.

For those old enough to remember “rabbit ears.” the Aereo is essentially a  new iteration of rabbit ears that allows transmission through public airwaves to be delivered through an internet connection. They charge a monthly fee for that service. The broadcasters claim that they are pirating protected content and charging for that content.

Go back 60 years as television was being introduced and those broadcasts over the public airwaves were worthless without antennae. The only difference between Aereo and those antennae makers of days past is that the latter didn’t lease out their products. They sold them. Had they chosen to follow a leasing model today Aereo would be nothing more than a mobile version of an old product and sales model. You paid for the product that captured protected content back then and Aereo was just evolving the relationship to a new device, unforeseen 60 years ago.

But because the past was as it was the future will likely be deprived of a new technology and some businesses suffer and others prosper, as a result.

And investors, too.

Today, though, turned out to be one of those days that wasn’t any where near as bad as it could have been, as the market showed a nice recovery from early losses. Maybe that will have some legs and take us out for the week on a positive note.

At least today there was some opportunity to rollover some positions and get into decent position to maybe get some more accomplished tomorrow if there’s any residual strength left over to end the week.

Daily Market Update – June 26, 2014 (9:00 AM)

Yesterday was really a day that had government imprints on just about everything from before the opening bell until after the closing bell.

It started with a government decision regarding oil exports that significantly hurt the refiners across the board.

Then came the Supreme Court decision that may have killed off Aereo and its technology while boosting the networks and local broadcasters.

Finally, there came an IRS ruling in favor of Iron Mountains quest to be considered a REIT. That battle and open question had been going on for at least three years and the sudden spike in its option premiums suggested that some kind of decision was forthcoming.

It would otherwise likely have been a very quiet day if not for those stories that continue this morning with allegations by the New York State Attorney General against Barclays and its “dark pools,” Most people would believe that whether a violation of the law or not, Barclays wouldn’t be the only one involved.

The latter two of yesterday’s decisions were known to be coming, it just wasn’t exactly clear when they would be announced, nor what the decisions would be. The oil exporting rules came as a complete surprise, not just in timing, but in content, as well.

Ultimately, whether you’re on the right side of the wrong side of a government decision it’s an unsettling way to go about things. You really can’t get any closer to pure gambling as you’re fully dependent on a decision that is going to move markets in one direction or another, with very little chance of leaving the stock unchanged.

Even worse, there are no leaks or well placed rumors to give any ideas of what is to come. Watching SBGI in the days before the decision was released was pretty laughable as the shares alternated between going higher and going lower on multiple occasions on an intraday basis. People were simply guessing and rushing to place their bets.

While that may have been the case for IRM and SBGI, it wasn’t really part of the equation for those with positions in the oil refiners. Doing a quick glance at four of the major refiners there was a market capitalization decline of more than $10 billion on yesterday’s unanticipated news and then its unexpected content.

Today doesn’t seem as if yesterday’s theme will have legs, as it’s a new day and one beginning to appear as if it will have no catalysts nor any new big stories, save what may further develop from the Attorney General’s office.

While government intervention is certainly needed it can raise havoc with markets whether through direct intervention or indirect. It’s much easier to navigate the markets when the intervention is below the radar and more geared toward creating a liquid and credible environment for trading.

Yesterday was a bit heavy handed. In the case of Aereo, it’s not even very clear that the Justices understand technology nor considered the history of the development of television, its transmission and reception. Their decision, as reflected in Justice Breyer’s eyes, was as much about definitions and drawing parallels to existing models as through an interpretation of the law.

For those old enough to remember “rabbit ears.” the Aereo is essentially a  new iteration of rabbit ears that allows transmission through public airwaves to be delivered through an internet connection. They charge a monthly fee for that service. The broadcasters claim that they are pirating protected content and charging for that content.

Go back 60 years as television was being introduced and those broadcasts over the public airwaves were worthless without antennae. The only difference between Aereo and those antennae makers of days past is that the latter didn’t lease out their products. They sold them. Had they chosen to follow a leasing model today Aereo would be nothing more than a mobile version of an old product and sales model. You paid for the product that captured protected content back then and Aereo was just evolving the relationship to a new device, unforeseen 60 years ago.

But because the past was as it was the future will likely be deprived of a new technology and some businesses suffer and others prosper, as a result.

And investors, too.

Daily Market Update – June 25, 2014 (Close)

It’s often said that the market discounts the future and reflects the situation six months from now.

With another revision of the first quarter’s GDP now indicating a negative 2.9% GDP if you could go back in time by about 6 months, I would bet you that those investing would be pretty unhappy to discover that they were following a fantasy and plowing their money into that fantasy.

Except that there may now be much consequence for that kind of misrepresentation of the health of the economy. And if you didn’t believe that could possibly have been the case, just look at today’s market, which shook off early concerns about the revisions and closed with a decent gain, despite the lack of anything resembling good news.

With all of the reasons to believe that the economy had been growing, albeit slowly, the market chugged along in anticipation that it would keep going that way. Except it turns out that’s not really the way it had been going.

The real optimists would shrug this off and simply say that six months from now our economy will be even more robust than it is today and that alone makes it reasonable to invest in stocks, as it’s all about the future and not the past.

You do have to wonder whether such large revisions begin to put some seminal metrics into the same league as those provided, and regularly derided by us, by the Chinese government. Those numbers are routinely dismissed despite the fact that they will move the markets on the day of their release and then so frequently those moves are quickly reversed as investors remember that the data often has no basis in fact.

This morning as the revision came out the immediate response was negative, but that fairly quickly corrected itself. Coming off yesterday’s very surprising loss that accelerated into the close you might believe that any negative news would be magnified, but that’s not appearing to be the case.

Approaching mid-week, this is shaping up to be one of the slowest trading weeks that I can recall, especially when having so much to spend.

What I thought were relative bargains yesterday got caught up in the sell-off that characterized the afternoon and that has to be a concern for additional positions that may be considered for purchase. Given the current environment it would be nice to see something tangible to provide confidence that the market can sustain itself at these levels.

Today’s digestion of the bad news should have been one of those signs, but it just didn’t have a really positive feeling about it.

Despite assurances from the Federal Reserve that would favor stocks over bonds, the deluge of IPO offerings leaves a bad taste for many who remember that as being a clarion call for bad things to come. Certainly, for those who look at the need for confirmatory volume for any kind of move, there hasn’t been any of that sort of thing.

While there may be a basis for that belief the rise of the market has been fairly slow, regular and sustained and is
n’t the kind that could be grouped together with past speculative bubbles, it’s hard to escape that feeling.

While the Employment Situation Report hasn’t been very important lately, I think that next week’s report may conceivably become a market mover if it doesn’t significantly advance the thought that there are many more people in a position to spend their money and support economic growth.

Although I think that retail is strengthening and that should reflect increasing consumer ability to make discretionary purchases, the numbers coming along haven’t done much to confirm that belief.

With what remains of this week, I hope that there is some opportunity to rollover positions or get some assignments, but my preference at this point would be to see rollovers as a means of generating income stream, rather than adding to the already ample cash reserve.

To its credit, given the horrible revision of this morning and sell-offs in Asia, the preliminary read on this morning’s market wasn’t terribly bad, so you can never really know what awaits. 

Turning away from the stock ticker may be done only at peril, but by the same token trying to apply a logical frame of mind in understanding what is going on may be equally perilous.

Daily Market Update – June 25, 2014 (9:00 AM)

It’s often said that the market discounts the future and reflects the situation six months from now.

With another revision of the first quarter’s GDP now indicating a negative 2.9% GDP if you could go back in time by about 6 months, I would bet you that those investing would be pretty unhappy to discover that they were following a fantasy and plowing their money into that fantasy.

Except that there may now be much consequence for that kind of misrepresentation of the health of the economy.

With all of the reasons to believe that the economy had been growing, albeit slowly, it was believed to be growing and the market chugged along in anticipation that it would keep going that way.

The real optimists would shrug this off and simply say that six months from now our economy will be even more robust than it is today and that alone makes it reasonable to invest in stocks.

You do have to wonder whether such large revisions begin to put some seminal metrics into the same league as those provided, and regularly derided, by the Chinese government. Those numbers are routinely dismissed despite the fact that they will move the markets on the day of their release and then so frequently those moves are quickly reversed as investors remember that the data often has no basis in fact.

This morning as the revision came out the immediate response was negative, but that fairly quickly corrected itself. Coming off yesterday’s very surprising loss that accelerated into the close you might believe that any negative news would be magnified, but that’s not appearing to be the case.

Approaching mid-week, this is shaping up to be one of the slowest trading weeks that I can recall, especially when having so much to spend.

What I thought were relative bargains yesterday got caught up in the sell-off that characterized the afternoon and that has to be a concern for additional positions that may be considered for purchase. Given the current environment it would be nice to see something tangible to provide confidence that the market can sustain itself at these levels.

Despite assurances from the Federal Reserve that would favor stocks over bonds, the deluge of IPO offerings leaves a bad taste for many who remember that as being a clarion call for bad things to come.

While there may be a basis for that belief the rise of the market has been fairly slow, regular and sustained and isn’t the kind that could be grouped together with past speculative bubbles.

While the Employment Situation Report hasn’t been very important lately, I think that next week’s report may conceivably become a market mover if it doesn’t significantly advance the thought that there are many more people in a position to spend their money and support economic growth.

With wh
at remains of this week, I hope that there is some opportunity to rollover positions or get some assignments, but my preference at this point would be to see rollovers as a means of generating income stream, rather than adding to the already ample cash reserve.

To its credit, given the horrible revision of this morning and sell-offs in Asia, the preliminary read on this morning’s market isn’t terribly bad, so you never really do know what awaits.

Turning away from the stock ticker may be done only at peril.